Is this a bad laydown w/ KK?

[kokothemonkey]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds,UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB raises, Hero three-bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB caps, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (1 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB raises, Hero three-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (0.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button raises, SB three bets, Hero...

I've received some criticism on my college poker forum that I shouldn't have bet the turn...yeah, probably not. The double check raise here indicates to me that the SB has a pretty good hand, like TT or possibly AA. The button's sudden raise means he's representing a 6. My instincts say fold. How can I possibly be ahead here? And my odds for spiking a K look bad. But Miller says I should stop looking for monsters under the bed, and not fold in big pots. What would he/you recommend here?

[Luv2DriveTT]

You should not have layed down. My guess from his preflop action (and no knowlege of his playing on previous hands) the SB porobably holds AK, AA, KK or TT (the real monster under the bed IMHO). If you were that concerned about the 6 monster under the bed, then you should have checked to see what happens with the Button first. I'd guess that SB had the full house... am I correct?

In da club /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Piiop]

I would fold here.

Your read of their hands is exactly what I'm thinking. The SB capping preflop means big pair or AK. Then he check-raises/caps the flop. Rules out AK, still could be a big pair. Turn pairs the 6 and now the button raises and the SB still check/3-bets. This means the button has a 6 and the SB probably has AA or TT.

Not betting the turn is bad. If you don't bet, a player behind you could bet his T and the SB could raise with JJ or QQ and you'd be put to a tough decision with the best hand. Since you did bet the turn, you know the bets/raises are more valid.

If they go to showdown and it turns out button has AdTd and the SB had QQ, then make a note and move on. With this much action, I would have to have a very specific read to not fold here.

Also, there's a converter pot-size problem with this hand. Whaddup with that?

[afk]

Easy fold here in my opinion.

On the flop you've been check-raised, and then capped when you 3bet. And on the turn you've been raised and check-3bet. I probably would have tried to check-call from the turn on.

[kokothemonkey]

Thanks...yeah I thought a fold was definitely in order here. I couldn't imagine being good with KK. The reason the pot size is probably wrong is that Party Poker somehow corrupted this history, and I had to piece it back together myself. Anyway, this is how the action finished:

Hero folds, MP1 folds, CO calls, Button calls

River: ($33) 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue"> (3 players) </font>
SB checks, CO checks, Button checks.

SB shows Ac Kh (a pair of sixes with ace kicker)
CO shows 5d Ad (a pair of sixes with ace kicker)
Button shows Qc 8c (a pair of sixes)
Outcome: SB wins $33

This is why I question my fold. But I absolutely couldn't believe the button would raise w/ that, and that the SB would have the balls to three bet nothing. The problem is, yes I've invested $5, but the 2 bets on the turn, plus a possible cap would have made $3 more, plus I'm not guaranteed to call the river for just one more bet. So many things just seemed against me. But the entire Miller thread about not folding in big pots makes me wonder, even though I swear I'm beat at least 90% of the time here.

[Nemesis]

first of all fun name, i thought it was coke monkey when i first glanced at it. I think that's a legitimate lay down, seems like a case of if you're ahead, you aren't far ahead... if you're behind you're pretty far behind.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
first of all fun name,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but no one else better call themself koko. Kruger would never allow it (He runs a tight ship).

-Craig

[kokothemonkey]

Gammy! Gammy! Gammy!

[Nottom]

Well the pot is only 0.5 BBs so I guess you can fold.


OK, for real now. I suck it up and call down, this isn't just a bit pot, this is a rediculously big pot. Folding the winner in this pot would make my normally Zen-like self go kick the dog ... and I don't even have a dog.

The board is completely uncoordinated and although you could be up against AA or a boat, i'm just not gonna fold an overpair in a 32BB? pot on this board. (I learned this lesson the hard way)

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a case of if you're ahead, you aren't far ahead...

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand that he is ahead of is he not very ahead of?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
But the entire Miller thread about not folding in big pots makes me wonder, even though I swear I'm beat at least 90% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thing you were getting 17-1 on your call. You don't have to be ahead very often here at all.

[Valuebettingtheriver]

I think it was a bad lay down. The pot is too big and even if you are behind to TT or trip 6s you are not drawing dead (unless someone is playing 66). You are still about a 60% to win this pot and 9% to fill up on the river.

[Nottom]

Probably more like 10% and 5% (well technically a 6 would push you ahead of 33 so it could be a bit higher) but hey, thats good enough for me.

[Valuebettingtheriver]

This is what Texas calculatem calculated. Could be unreliable

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
This is what Texas calculatem calculated. Could be unreliable

[/ QUOTE ]

Anything that calculates that KK is ahead here 60% of the time given that action is worthless.

The 9% figure is about right to fill up, but a 6 will only help if you are behind 33. Otherwise you just have a worse boat than whoever is ahead now so the 2-6 outs need to be heavily discounted.

[kokothemonkey]

I would definitely call down if I knew for certain I could do it cheaply. Maybe if I had checked the turn, but after I bet I suddenly had a raise and reraise to face. If I call those 2 bets, the button could easily cap it. So now I have another bet to call. That's 3 bets on the turn. When the river comes, if I don't improve, and the SB leads out, can I flat call him? The way this action was going, I was expecting the SB and Button to cap it on the turn and river. That's 7 BB I'm putting in here...to me, the odds aren't good enough for me to attempt a call down. (It's easy to say it was a bad laydown after seeing the results)

[Nottom]

the thing is, on the turn you are almost getting the odds you need to improve if you are behind, so I think you have to at least call there befoe worrying about the river.