JJ Reckless River?

[Nate tha' Great]

Opponent was quite loose and quite stupid, although not super aggressive. He'll call down the whole way with any piece of the board and I don't think he'll usually have the straight here. I would have called a raise though if I'd bet out.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="666666">7 folds</font>,

Flop: (5.66 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (3.83 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls.

River: (5.83 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks intending to raise and fold to a 3-bet.

[thwang99]

If he's not super aggressive and a calling station, wouldn't betting out be better? I don't have the experience you have, having recently started playing at higher limits. Wondering if you could share your reasoning in going for the river check-raise. Is it because he would call a check-raise with a weak hand, also? So you want to get two bets in instead of the one you would get by betting out the river? Thx!

- Tony

[Emoney]

i'd have to be pretty confident that the opponent would take a stab allowing the check raise. i wouldn't want to lose the river value bet from a calling station.

check raise and folding to a 3bet vs calling a raise on the river is still 2 bets to the showdown.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's not super aggressive and a calling station, wouldn't betting out be better? I don't have the experience you have, having recently started playing at higher limits. Wondering if you could share your reasoning in going for the river check-raise. Is it because he would call a check-raise with a weak hand, also? So you want to get two bets in instead of the one you would get by betting out the river? Thx!

- Tony

[/ QUOTE ]

I was pretty certain based on his previous play that he'd call with just about any pair if I check-raised. I'd guess that only the top 10-15% of players at the site are able to fold to check-raises in these spots, which is what can make them profitable.

And, yeah, the purpose of the play is to make an extra bet from dumb players who call down too much but are also inclined to autobet when checked to. This guy was *not* an autobettor but I thought that the gutshot, which can't very likely have helped my hand, would give him some extra inducement to take a stab. Remember that he might also mistakenly value bet a hand like QT or A4s or whatever figuring that my overcards had missed. And the play isn't any more costly then bet-calling if he *did* river a gutshot since I have no qualms about folding to a 3-bet.

[etizzle]

right, but nate will usually only get 2 bets in if he check-raises. Most of the time this will go check-bet-raise-call, assuming the guy plays like Nate thinks he does.

The thinking is that the guy will call a check-raise with a worse hand more often then he will bluff-raise or incorrectly value-raise a worse hand.

[StreetLeader]

Knowing that a loose player would play something like 65 suited here, and the board completed a straight, it would be wiser to bet on the river ahead of him. If he raises, you can assume that he has the straight or two pair if he is a loose player. JJs are one of the worst hands to hold if the flop is low. Percentages on winning with a 3 straight on the board are under ten percent at best. Single bets or calls with this hand is always in order - it is also one of the toughest but must lay down hands if there is an overcard on the flop.