AA Party 2/4

[Piiop]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (19.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero...

Is this a clear raise? Also any comments on the turn?

[umdpoker]

you damn well better raise here! well, at least i would....

[Haupt_234]

I would raise and merely call a 3bet. The rest of the hand looks good.

Haupt_234

[Nottom]

This seems like a good spot to go for an overcall to me.

[Garland]

Do you believe him?

Well. UTG+1 doesn't have the Q. He's more likely to have the flush due to the action. It's CO who concerns me. He's shown aggression on the flop and turn indicating the Q, but backed down to the flush threat. I would just call here in case he has something like an overplayed KK and get an overcall from UTG+1. Raising will basically kill UTG+1 who would otherwise call one bet for his flush, and it will eliminate the risk of being 3-bet from CO if he has the nuts.

Garland

[W. Deranged]

The decision here is pretty close, but I like the overcall here on the river. Raising will most likely knock out UTG +1, and so raising/calling probably have exactly the same expectation in the case that you have the best hand. I don't see CO 3-betting here with anything but the case Q, and so I don't think raising is going to earn you any extra money from worse hands. Further, if CO does have the case Q, you will save yourself two bets by calling here and not raising. The only situation in which raising is correct is if you think that there is a good chance that UTG+1 will call two bets cold after checking. So, it would seem that the decision rides exactly on which you think is more likely:

a) CO has the case Q

b) UTG+1 will call two bets cold.

If a) is true, then calling is correct and saves two big bets. If b) is true and a) is not, raising is correct and will earn you two extra bets.

Clearly this is a decision that could come down to how you read your opponents, but my suspicion is that the CO is more likely to have the case Q than UTG+1 is to call two cold on the river into that board with what is most likely a flush. So I like the overcall.

[RandR]

I would have to raise and call a 3-bet. I'm guessing CO hit a set on the flop, but its party and im usually surprised /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Piiop]

I didn't think it was a clear raise at all, so I called. Garland and W. Deranged basically mirrored my reasoning.

UTG+1 folded and CO shows red Tens. MHIG.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing CO hit a set on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's very unlikely. Not many people will raise 77 or 66 in his position and he would definitely cap the turn.

[Eihli]

This is not close. This is a definite raise. I see soooo many hands that don't have a queen in them and I don't know how you can be sure enough that UTG will call 1 bet to make going for the overcall worth it. With a hand he played that aggressively, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of times he calls 2.

[umdpoker]

after reading the other comments, i think going for the overcall isn't bad. however, i really hate to put somebody on the only hand that will beat me. also, i would expect to get called by any flush, because people have a hard time laying down any made hand. also, i think any pocket pair above jj will call. btw, i think that the odds of a flopped set are greater than a case queen.

[RandR]

its party, sometimes I have to expect the unexpected... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
btw, i think that the odds of a flopped set are greater than a case queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the way he played this hand ... is this how you would play a set (turned boat) or a Q.

Even from a purely mathematical point of view thats not really true (2 ways for AQ, 4 ways for KQ, 1 way for QJs vs 3 ways fo 66 and 3 ways for 77)

[Saborion]

Wouldn't you say that it appears as though UTG+1 has a pretty good hand? A hand he just as well might call 2 cold with? A hand like 66 or 77? He bet the flop, and then only called it when it was 2 more back to him. On the turn he's clearly not afraid of a flush, so he should have a flush or a boat.

The CO then. On the flop it appears as though he has QQ, AA, KK, AQ, KQ. I'd say that the most likely holdings would be KK, AQ or KQ, with the K of hearts. AA not likely since you have it yourself. QQ not that likely since he didn't cap the flop, still a possibility. On the turn I'd say QQ is very unlikely since he didn't cap. I'm not sure about his raise though. Either the Q helped him, or it didn't. If it did help him, he should have AQ or KQ.

Raise or not, that is the question. Unless the third player is capable of folding a strong hand, I'd say raise since he'll provide a bit of an overlay the few times the CO does indeed have a Q.

[umdpoker]

interesting....about even odds. however, when you look at the play of the hand, you have to lean more towards a queen. i learn something everyday.

what about aa-jj? even though tt was the hand that was shown down, i don't think this will be shown very often.

[umdpoker]

hmm.... i change my mind again. i think flopped set or even flopped flush is highly probable. i know that i will cap a multiway pot with a set no matter what it looks like. the odds of filling up by river are good enough to make up for the times you are behind to a flush. obviously, you gotta bet hard with a flopped flush as well.