Why Poker. Why Now?

[Dan Mezick]

Poker certainly has its virtues. But until quite recently, explaining poker’s profound greatness to casual observers was difficult-- at best. Suddenly, everyone (and their mother) seems not just interested, but downright fascinated with the game of no-limit tournament poker.

We could all point to the WPT and say “that’s the reason” and certainly the WPT show is innovative and influential. Yet a TV show dies an ugly death without a steady audience, and that is what the WPT show has generated- a steady and growing, huge audience.

Now, it’s natural to ask: why?

You can’t just say it’s the format, or the prize money, or the “whatever” of the WPT show, because even the WSOP stuff on ESPN is experiencing a renaissance of audience interest. WSOP poker on TV is not a new concept, and certainly the hole-card camera is interesting, but does not fully explain poker’s sudden “major mindshare” in the American psyche.

In some kind of very basic way, tournament poker suddenly appeals to a very wide audience. What gives here?

I believe poker will remain popular for much, much longer than observers expect. As a matter of fact, I suspect poker’s popularity is just getting started.

Many observers think quite the opposite—that we are in a “poker bubble” and the growth absolutely has to slow, taper off, etc.

I can see the contrarian logic of that conclusion, and that position.

Indeed, in a very real sense, the “poker bubble” school of thought has become the orthodox, conventional wisdom. As far as I can tell, not many observers are making hugely optimistic guesses about poker’s future growth. For example, I have not read too many observers (read: “none”) going out on a limb and saying that they expect the WSOP 10K NLHE event to get 3000+ players in 2005. This would represent about 100% growth over 2004. If it happens, it will be the 3rd running year of 100% growth in that event’s participation.

I’m interested in hearing from other observers who also think poker will continue to enjoy a 80, 90, or 100 percent growth rate in the coming years.

And specifically, why.

[MissOt]

for me it was ESPN showing the WSOP 8 times a day on ESPN and ESPN2. then a few friends of mine starting playing and we all learned how to play, bought some books, and watched tv/rounders.

maybe poker was never given a chance before. it was the first time it has been aired on TV like this. that has to be a huge reason. it was so interesting because many people havent seen it before. anyway i cant stand the WSOP episodes this year lol. i hope the main event is better than these all in hands of FTs. anything on fox sports net blows away WPT or WSOP. we actually get to see them play poker, but i bet if someone showed me that show last year i wouldnt like it at all because i didnt get to see any showdowns or all ins lol

if it wasnt for ESPN or travel channel or even celebrity poker on bravo i doubt i would know about it or any of the other 10 million people that just started playing. i read some article on pokerpages that phil ivey predicted this NLHE blow up in 2001. hes a freind of paul darden and told darden to learn NLHE from stud because it is going to explode. pretty good prediction by him lol

[James Boston]

Poker appeals to different personality types. It still maintains some of the old school lure that is perpetuated by movies like Rounders. It also appeals to appeals to the crowd who put down their Magic: The Gathering cards for the 52 card deck. It's a very equal opportunity game.

[Tuds75]

Ivey told Darden that "Women Love the ALL-IN" and you just can't do that enough in stud. Maybe Darden laerned NHE because the biggest game (WSOP championship) plays that game and Darden wanted to become a champion?

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
For example, I have not read too many observers (read: “none”) going out on a limb and saying that they expect the WSOP 10K NLHE event to get 3000+ players in 2005. This would represent about 100% growth over 2004. If it happens, it will be the 3rd running year of 100% growth in that event’s participation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt that I qualify as much of an observer, but I predict over 3000 players for the 2005 WSOP $10,000 NLHE event. Probably way over 3000.

Also, weren't there like 2500 entrants in 2004, making 3000 entrants in 2005 a mere 20% increase?

[Nottom]

Poker is the ultimate reality TV show for many people, instead of eating bugs or living in a house with a bunch of psychos poker is just some guys playing a game.

People watch the WPT and they see the prize pools and they think, I can play like that. They see Moneymaker win the WSOP and think, wow if some guy from tennesse can win, why can't I.

In a society fascenated with anything "reality", poker was just kind of in the right place at the right time.

[crockett]

Three simple things have put us where we are now:

Rounders
ESPN
Hole-Card Camera <--- This is of course the biggy.

Normal people can't stand to watch poker, but throw in the Hole card camera and they are fixated. People love watching other people make mistakes. It makes them feel better about themselves. Without the hole card camera, they just think...."Well, of course he/she folded..they are professional card player...they probably had 72o." But when they see them lay down QQ to a T8o bluff...now you got something.

I really don't think it is anything more indepth or complicated than these things.

And of course the one thing that sealed the deal was Chris Moneymaker. Anytime someone sees Joe blow hitting it big you are immediately going to rope in some major crowds.

It is really just a freak occurence of some small things happening with perfect timing. If your into conspiracies then the Moneymaker thing is all for you.....

I mean come on, what would Texas Hold'em need to push it over the edge. What if a guy won the World Series that just started playing (relative terms), was doing it at home from the internet, very little live table experience....yeah but what would we name him....How about Moneymaker? No, that's too over the top. America loves over the top. You couldn't have written a better movie script.

[TheSheath]

I taught my nine year old brother how to play poker on july 6th. then after a month of the wsop being on tv and all my dad finds out that like 4 or 5 kids on my bros soccer team play poker. little nine year olds. what is happening?

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Hole-Card Camera <--- This is of course the biggy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome point. Watching old poker broadcasts without knowing the hole cards is incredibly boring.

[Smasharoo]

Won't last.

Casino's and TV will provide more and more content that's indistinguishible to the average person from poker and we'll all be bitching about how the World Go Fish Tour is getting all the ratings and all the fish are playing "All in challange!" with a 9% house edge on the casino floor.

[toots]

Well, you know, the fish are probably getting better odds with the 9% house advantage than they'd get from playing with decent players.

[Jaycie]

You know what's scary? I was reading my sister's teen mag (don't ask me why cause I don't know) and they had a section on how to play texas hold'em. I asked her about it and she said and I quote "It's totally awesome! Like Ben A. plays it so it's got to be cool." I just stared at her blankly in astonishment. At first it really freaked me out but then I remembered that it just means more fish to fry. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
You know what's scary? I was reading my sister's teen mag (don't ask me why cause I don't know) and they had a section on how to play texas hold'em. I asked her about it and she said and I quote "It's totally awesome! Like Ben A. plays it so it's got to be cool." I just stared at her blankly in astonishment. At first it really freaked me out but then I remembered that it just means more fish to fry. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


That's probably because Ben Affleck was the bomb in Phantoms and is, as many cinematic experts have cited, the Al Pacino of our generation.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)
"Phantoms Like a Motherf***er"

[toots]

Why poker, why now?

Two words: September 11th.

I could write a huge dissertation on why this is so, but I don't feel like it. Instead, I'll give y'all credit for being able to figure out the point I'm making, without having to draw a picture.

[wayabvpar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you know, the fish are probably getting better odds with the 9% house advantage than they'd get from playing with decent players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh. Probably true.

[Gallopin Gael]

[ QUOTE ]
That's probably because Ben Affleck was the bomb in Phantoms

[/ QUOTE ]

Snoogins. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[jwvdcw]

I think Rounders played a huge part in the current poker boom. So did Moneymaker's rag to riches story.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's probably because Ben Affleck was the bomb in Phantoms

[/ QUOTE ]

Snoogins. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

word bitch phantoms like a mo' fucka!

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
certainly the hole-card camera is interesting, but does not fully explain poker’s sudden “major mindshare” in the American psyche.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll disagree. I think the ability to see hole cards IS the single thing that makes TV poker interesting and watchable...

[illunious]

Harrahs expects 7,500 for the 2005 main event.

link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tv&Number=728879&Forum=All _Forums&Words=wsop&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=7288 79&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=36&daterange=1&n ewerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypre v=#Post728879)

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
Why poker, why now?

Two words: September 11th.

I could write a huge dissertation on why this is so, but I don't feel like it. Instead, I'll give y'all credit for being able to figure out the point I'm making, without having to draw a picture.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, no.

Regardless of 09/11 happening or not, the Lipstick Cam is the #1 reason why poker is booming. The #2 reason is that after watching the game on television people can sit down at their computer in the underwear and play the game against other REAL people, giving the game easy accesibility to those wishing to play. Further, it gives them a way to play for real money at a very minimal expense (i'm speaking of ultra-micro limit games).

To further the boom, people then realized that they had a chance to play in some of the biggest events in the world and become a star by qualifying for a WPT event or the WSOP at a very minimal cost by qualifying for it via online satellites.

Think about this, how many people can say they played in the Final Four or Baseball's World Series or the Super Bowl or competed for the Stanley Cup. But, look at how many people can compete in the biggest event in Poker, the WSOP. People have dreams and they want to dream big. Playing the WSOP is very achieveable at a very minimal cost, sometimes even via a freeroll. How many people can say they played for the Stanley Cup against Wayne Gretzky or they played in the Super Bowl against Emmitt Smith or they played in the NBA Finals against Michael Jordan.

Some dude can go home to his buddies and say, yea I played in the WSOP and I was at the TV table with Chan and Brunson and Jesus and Hellmuth. That, my friends is what it's all about, three simple words...The American Dream, a chance to win a load of money, compete against The Cream of the Crop and the chance to be on TV (and become the next Chris Moneymaker.

In fact, the final piece of the puzzle was laid in place by one person and that's Moneymaker. If Hellmuth, Chan, Brusnon or any other big-name pro wins the 2003 WSOP, the boom isn't as big. Sure, there's still a boom, but it's not as big. I mean how many people have you talked to that are not poker affecionados that talk this story up. Dude from Tennessee wins an online qualifier for like $40 or whatever, then wins Millions against all the best...I can do that too. That completes the picture, the dream is attainable as proven by Moneymaker.

But, the key is Hole Card Cams, but without the availability of the game via the internet, it doesn't boom. It's too difficult for many people in this country to go to a casino to play for a variety of reasons, but a computer is accesible to almost everyone.

Without hole card cams and internet poker, it doesn't booom. Simple as that, 911 is irrelevant.

[Wahoo91]

Poker will have enormous growth over the next several years, fueling a nice surge in Poker television programming (both network and cable). How long the popularity of televised poker lasts is hard to say. I am not sure at this point if it will peak and become "mainstream" on television, like football, baseball, etc., or die a slow death like all other non-sports television before it.