Pick your turn play

[Tosh]

Party 15/30 game, TAG UTG raises, unknown cold calls and you 3 bet AKo. BB calls 2 more and UTG caps, all call. Flop is 632r (suits aren't really relevant so I won't mention them again). UTG bets, Unknown cold caller calls, as you do and BB folds.

Turn is a king, UTG bets, unknown raises.

[AdamL]

UTG capping says a big pocket pair, I think. If it's AA or KK, you're losing. If you think he'd cap with QQ you can call, but otherwise it looks like a fold situation. If you call the raise you're probably going to see UTG three bet it behind you.

Comments?

[Garland]

Sounds like a couple of people hit their Ks. But you have the best kicker.

3-bet the turn and call down to any further aggression.

Garland

[BassMan712]

I don't like this, but i think a 3-bet is correct.

Hopefully, at worst, unknown has AK for a split and UTG has QQ/JJ.

[willie24]

i think you have to 3-bet. fold is out of the question. i would not raise the river.

what about folding on the flop? would hate to with such a big pot but there is a good chance that some of your 6 outs are no good - and a fair chance that none of them are good.

[willie24]

the more i think about it the more appealing it is to just call. if utg has AA you gain nothing by raising. if utg has jj you might gain a small amount by raising - but you likely lose- because he will likely fold to 2 raises. assuming the unknown also has ak i think you should just call. i think the chances of him having something like kq are not good enough to warrant a 3-bet

[StellarWind]

I think there is a huge risk that Unknown coldcaller has flopped a set. It fits his play very well. Certainly he may be playing an outkicked king, but with a hand like KJ this would be the third street in a row that he has butchered.

UTG could have AA (3 hands), KK (1 hand), AK (6 hands), QQ (6 hands), and maybe worse hands like AQs and JJ.

Raising will not help us win and does not offer value given our dicey winning chances. I call.

I assume that TAG recognizes us and will respect the meaning of this coldcall. If he insists on 3-betting anyway and Unknown caps, I expect to be in last place and fold.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a huge risk that Unknown coldcaller has flopped a set...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there is enough evidence of that yet. I think there's enough reasonable evidence that the unknown cold-caller is raising with something like AK, KQ and KJ that 3-betting the turn makes it worthwhile.

Now if UTG folds/calls and unknown cold-caller 4-bets, that's a different situation all together. I might consider folding if UTG is committed to the pot at this point.

Garland

[arkady]

I am calling;
IF UTG 3 bets - I would consider folding, but he could just as well have AKs, but if unknown has a set he is probably capping the turn and you can let go right there.

IF UTG calls - I raise the river and fold to a reraise (assuming river goes, UTG check, unknown bets).

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
I am calling;
IF UTG 3 bets - I would consider folding, but he could just as well have AKs, but if unknown has a set he is probably capping the turn and you can let go right there.

IF UTG calls - I raise the river and fold to a reraise (assuming river goes, UTG check, unknown bets).

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line of thinking but I think the river play is too aggressive. This is 15/30, so i'm thinking these guys are solid players.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there is enough evidence of that yet. I think there's enough reasonable evidence that the unknown cold-caller is raising with something like AK, KQ and KJ that 3-betting the turn makes it worthwhile.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't claim there is proof. You certainly have a solid chance here. But count hands for Unknown: AK (6), KQ (8), KJ (8). But most players 3-bet AK preflop so that's not a likely hand. KQ and KJ are 16 hands (only 4 suited) but they certainly might have folded the flop or contented themselves with a circumspect call on the turn.

Of course if UTG has AK as we sort of hope the chances that Unknown also has a king are cut in half.

Meanwhile there are 9 hands that flopped a set. For them, coldcall preflop, smoothcall the flop, and raise the turn sound about perfect.

If we have 50% equity against UTG's range of hands and Unknown has a set (and caps) 1/3 of the time, then why are we raising? It's seriously -EV and I think that's being generous about our winning chances.

One more thing. For raising to be good you must be hoping UTG has QQ/JJ. What's so great about raising? You just killed him. There is every chance he would have overcalled the turn and called again on the river because of the pot size. I doubt he'll call now with you raising and Unknown getting another shot. You may actually wind up winning one less BB at the end of this hand thanks to your raise. Eliminating his two outs is not adequate compensation for that.

[arkady]

I may not be playing 15/30 at Party, but given what I know from other posters just because they are playing 15/30, does not make them anything, except people who play 15/30.

I have played against the same crazy maniacs in 2/4 as I have in 10/20. Thats the beauty behind the game I guess /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing. For raising to be good you must be hoping UTG has QQ/JJ. What's so great about raising? You just killed him. There is every chance he would have overcalled the turn and called again on the river because of the pot size

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis, but I think if UTG had JJ or QQ, he'd be killed by the raise and hero's cold call anyways.

Garland

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there is enough evidence of that yet. I think there's enough reasonable evidence that the unknown cold-caller is raising with something like AK, KQ and KJ that 3-betting the turn makes it worthwhile.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't claim there is proof. You certainly have a solid chance here. But count hands for Unknown: AK (6), KQ (8), KJ (8). But most players 3-bet AK preflop so that's not a likely hand. KQ and KJ are 16 hands (only 4 suited) but they certainly might have folded the flop or contented themselves with a circumspect call on the turn.

Of course if UTG has AK as we sort of hope the chances that Unknown also has a king are cut in half.

Meanwhile there are 9 hands that flopped a set. For them, coldcall preflop, smoothcall the flop, and raise the turn sound about perfect.

If we have 50% equity against UTG's range of hands and Unknown has a set (and caps) 1/3 of the time, then why are we raising? It's seriously -EV and I think that's being generous about our winning chances.

One more thing. For raising to be good you must be hoping UTG has QQ/JJ. What's so great about raising? You just killed him. There is every chance he would have overcalled the turn and called again on the river because of the pot size. I doubt he'll call now with you raising and Unknown getting another shot. You may actually wind up winning one less BB at the end of this hand thanks to your raise. Eliminating his two outs is not adequate compensation for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice analysis. I appreciate your posts.

[Danenania]

What about 3-betting and folding to a cap on the turn? You are ahead of a lot of hands that would only bet/raise but drawing dead to almost all that would cap. Plus there's a chance you could get the original bettor to fold an AK.

[MarkD]

I call, and then I call the river (or bet if checked to). 3-betting the turn is reckless agression without purpose IMO.

I think raising the river is wrong too. You will be better off going for the overcall on the river rather than risk getting 3-bet there.

[MarkD]

I think stellar nailed this hand. It's exactly how I view the situation as well although I wasn't as thorough.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
. This is 15/30, so i'm thinking these guys are solid players.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are thinking too much.

[Tosh]

Ok. Capper could have AA-QQ or AK upto the turn. On the turn I estimate he would check QQ 75% of the time and bet with the others. Given these assumptions and assume the following action - I call, UTG calls. Unknown bets river and we both call - how often do I have to have unknown beaten to make the call down correct?

[MarkD]

This was sorta quick so could be wrong but all work is supplied so if you spot a mistake let me know:

Not an easy question to answer Tosh. Here’s my attempt at the EV.

Nomenclature:
P(win) = probability of us winning the pot
P(win) = P(1)*P(2)
P(1) = probability we have UTG beaten
P(2) = probability we have cold caller beaten (CC) = x
P(tie) = probability of us splitting the pot with UTG
P(tie) = P(t)*P(2)
P(t) = probability that UTG has AK for a tie

From my calculation (ignoring the rake) there are 9.83BB’s in the pot prior to the turn action.

So the EV calculation looks like this:
EV = P(win)*(9.83 + 3 + 1 + 2) + P(tie)*(9.83 + 3 + 1 + 2)/2 – 3*(1-(P(win)+P(tie)))
EV = 18.83*P(win) + 21.83/2*P(tie) – 3 (equ. 1)

Or if we let M = pot size = 12.83 (that is the pot size when it is our decision on the turn) then we can modify the pot size later if I made a mistake and the above equation becomes:
EV = (M+3)*p(w) + (M+9)/2*p(t) – 3 (equ. 2)

But we know this about player 1’s hand distribution
AA (3)
KK (1)
AK (6)
QQ (6) (but he will only bet the turn 25% of the time so this is derated to 1.5)
Total = 11.5
So we are beating player 1 1.5 times, split 6 times, and lose 4 times.

And we know:
p(w) = p(1)*p(2) = 1.5/11.5 * x = 1.5x/11.5
p(t) = P(tie)*p(2) = 6/11.5 * x = 6x/11.5

Now, if we set Equation 2 equal to zero and solve for x we get:
x = 7.67 / (M+8)
if we disregard the rake then M = 12.83
x = 0.368
if we assume that the rake is $3 (0.1bb’s) then M = 12.73
x = 0.370

Conclusion:
So you need to be ahead of the cold caller ~37% of the time.

[Tosh]

Looks good to me, I think. /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[SA125]

Call. The action smells trouble, but you can't ask for a much better board for AKo. Unknown might have called with AK or KQs and figures he's 50-50 to have UTG beat and would rather take his chances here without you.