Fantasy auction values

[Tater10]

I dont think this is very off topic, it is general gambling right?

I play fantasy football, and we have an auction format. we each get $1000 payroll and bid on players. We need 1 quarterback 2 Running backs, 3 Wide Receivers and 1 Tight End.

There has to be an optimum price for each player. How do i determine that?

To simplify, assume a 4 person league (we really have 10) and all you have to do is draft 1 QB and 2 RB's.

now, assume my projections are perfect for the 2004 season, i know exactly how many points each player scores. here is the list you get to chose from

only 1 from this lest:
QB A 396 pts
QB B 369
QB C 365
QB D 356

exactly 2 from the RB list
RB A 347 pts
RB B 345
RB C 328
RB D 293
RB E 290
RB F 281
RB G 275
RB H 259

How much is each player worth? I am assuming that the last player on each list is worth only $1 (you cant buy more than needed) and the total sum of all players should equal $4000.

How do you do this? I have to include 3 WR's and 1 TE, and expand it to a 10 person league.

Thanks for your help!

[pudley4]

Figuring out values this way isn't quite as easy or accurate as it is for Rotisserie Baseball. This is because in baseball, all 25 of your players play each week and accumulate points. So if you have a starter who hits 30 HR and a reserve who hits 5, they end up with the same contribution to your team as a starter who hits 20 and a reserve who hits 15.

In FF, it's different because you have players who don't play each week: if your starting QB throws 30 TD and your backup throws 5, you're much better off than if your starter throws 20 and your backup throws 15.

In your example, you're only concerned with startes, so the way you figure these numbers out is this:
<ul type="square"> Find the difference in points between the bottom player at each position and each of the players above him on the list. This gives you the relative point total per player
Add the relative point totals together.
Assign each player a $1 value.
Divide the remaining available salary money by the total from the step above. This gives you a dollar value per relative point.
Multiply each players relative point total by the dollar value per point you obtained in the step above and add it to his $1 salary[/list]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Player Rel Pts Value
QB A 396 40 392
QB B 369 13 128
QB C 365 9 89
QB D 356 0 1

RB A 347 88 861
RB B 345 86 842
RB C 328 69 676
RB D 293 34 333
RB E 290 31 304
RB F 281 22 216
RB G 275 16 157
RB H 259 0 1

</pre><hr />

Total relative pts: 408
$ per relative pt: $9.77451

[Tater10]

beautiful!

Why dont you see stuff like this in fantasy magazines, or do you? The most dificult part is still the projections, but i feel i have an advantage over the others so far. I'm trying to find out the value of priest holmes, and according to your formula (which works), he is valued at $490-$550 based on what projections you look at.

I was real close to what you posted for my fantasy baseball team. I would figure the last picked guy to be worth league minimum, and bid according relative to how others perform. I have the best fantasy baseball team so far - no one would bid enough for the studs, and overpay for the above average players.

Looking forward to my draft next week...

Thanks!

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Why dont you see stuff like this in fantasy magazines, or do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said above, it's not as accurate for FF because you have players on your bench who will rarely/never play. If you're in an 8 team league, and spend $350 on Peyton, there's really no reason to spend anything other than $1 on a backup, since that guy will only play one game for you. However, using the calculations I did, you'll end up assigning money to 7 other backup QB's, and overvaluing them. The same thing will occur at most other positions (although not as drastically).

There are some magazines that assign values, but I have no idea how they come up with them. Fantasy Football Weekly was one of the worst - they didn't take into account the size of the league, the number of players on a roster, or the scoring system. All they did was list a $ value next to each player and state "This is what the player should go for if their name comes up first in the auction" /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Fantasy Football Index is one of the best - they change their values based on league size, scoring system, with or w/o defense and special teams, TE as WR or as a separate position. I've uses their $ values as a starting point and won my league the past 3 years /images/graemlins/laugh.gif