An American Hiroshima

[Rick Nebiolo]

This (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/11/opinion/11kris.html) New Your Times Op Ed piece has it about even money that an American city will be hit by a nuke with about the yield of the Hiroshima nuke within the next ten years. Pretty scary but maybe we can do a poll given it may be hard to collect on a bet (Las Vegas might make a good target).

[astroglide]

i don't know what over/under actually means

[daryn]

will an american city be hit with a nuke before 10 years are up, or after?

i suppose you could think that it would NEVER happen, but i think you know what he means.

[astroglide]

no, i don't. "over/under" and "spread" stuff appears to originate from sportsbetting. those of us who don't like or bet on sports and haven't taken the time to look it up are in the dark any time somebody mentions this type of betting.

[Stu Pidasso]

Daryn did answer your question.

Let me edit his response for clarity

Will an american city be hit with a nuke before 10 years are up(UNDER), or after(OVER)? 10 years is the the over/under line.

I suppose you could think that it would NEVER happen, but i think you know what he means. If you don't, it means you choose the over line.

Stu

[astroglide]

what determines which is over and which is under for a given bet? e.g. "i am going to flip a coin. the bet is that it will land on heads. would you like the over or the under?" is heads the over or the under? are over/under bets only ones that have some kind of fixed numeric result that can be higher or lower? if that's the case, i don't see why this poll was listed as an over/under instead of a simple yes/no since there is no additional reward for it happening in 1 year vs 9 years.

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

[ QUOTE ]
what determines which is over and which is under for a given bet? e.g. "i am going to flip a coin. the bet is that it will land on heads. would you like the over or the under?" is heads the over or the under?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it pretty much requires the bet to be on something involving a number. If you were to assign heads to have a value of 1 point and tails to be worth 0 points, a good place to put the line would be at 0.5. You'd be taking the over if you took heads and the under if you took tails.

Do you think it will be OVER (greater than) 10 years before the US is hit with a nuke or UNDER (less than) 10 years before the US is hit with a nuke?

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

[ QUOTE ]
are over/under bets only ones that have some kind of fixed numeric result that can be higher or lower?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
if that's the case, i don't see why this poll was listed as an over/under instead of a simple yes/no since there is no additional reward for it happening in 1 year vs 9 years.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's just another way of saying "do you think the US will be hit with a nuke before or after 10 years?" or "My best guess is that the US will be hit with a nuke in 10 years. Do you think it'll happen before that or after that?" Since this is a gambling (sorry, gaming) forum and the over/under terminology makes it easier/quicker/more clear (as long as everybody understands over/under), the over/under language is appropriate.

[Cyrus]

Quit paying attention to him and get busy with the guy holding his pants.

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