Paradise $2/$4 heads up with KQs

[Pirc Defense]

How'd I play this? No read on opponents, but BB is short-stacked and ready to bust out.

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls,

Flop: (6 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 14 BB, between BB and Hero.</font>

Results to follow.

[Clarkmeister]

There's really no mileage in raising the turn there.

[W. Deranged]

The bet that interests me here is the turn raise. You have a real monster draw here... if the big blind is playing ace-rag (a probable holding at 2/4), than you have all the Ks, Qs, Js, and diamonds, giving you a monstrous 17 outs. It seems likely that your opponent may have something slightly stronger than a middle or low ace, but you have at least 14 outs in most situations, including, most likely, aces up, but even against aces and queens or broadway. On average, you probably have somewhere in the 14-15 out range, or about 30% to improve to a winner.

The question of course is, though, whether you are likely enough to have the best hand to justify the raise on the turn. (It seems unlikely that a turn raise serves any purpose but value here... your opponent three-bet the flop and led out on the turn, and unless you have some serious information suggesting he plays his hands loose/aggressive early and weak late, there is no reason to think a turn raise will set up a bluff on the river if you don't improve). So, to make a turn raise profitable here, it would seem that you would need about a 20% likelihood that you have the best hand here (Note that if you have the best hand here, you are very unlikely to be outdrawn, as you have all the draws yourself). Personally, with a reasonably coordinated board and the ace out there, I think it is not very likely that you were three-bet with a hand you are beating, but 20% certainly does not seem an unreasonable number. The fact that your opponent is short-stacked and "ready to bust out" may push it over the edge in favor of a raise, but I think calling and raising are both fine.

Everything else looks good.

[Garland]

I think you're looking for validation for the turn raise.

Given the added hand value of the flush draw, plus numerous outs to trips, two pair, gutshot + fold equity makes the turn raise +EV.

Garland

[SnakeRat]

You most likely need to improve to win, call the turn.

There is approximately zero chance he will fold.

[Pirc Defense]

Great analysis, Deranged. Thanks for the responses.

Against a single opponent that clearly isn't folding, raising the turn because of my large amount of outs doesn't seem to be the best play. I think I tend to agree with Clarkmeister here. Raising the turn would make more sense with more opponents as I'm gaining more equity with every bet I put into the pot. Against this guy if I do hit one of my outs it seems he'll be content to cap with me on the river, so seeing how the river comes might be the best policy. Close decision.

In retrospect I can't believe the guy didn't have an Ace. He turned over 88. Funny, because he got exactly 88 on his next hand, lost with it, and one opponenet of his at that hand wisely folded, you guessed it, 88. Paradise is rigged!!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Trix]

BB isnt going to fold anything he 3bet to a turn raise. So all it does is put more money in when behind and make sure you only get one bet in on the river if you hit.

[sublime]

I like the flop raise
I dont like the turn raise, what were you trying to accomplish?

[colgin]

It's pretty clear that you are drawing here, so raising the turn heads-up does not make any sense to me.

All the best.

Colgin

[StellarWind]

.

[Victor]

When you get 3-bet on the flop it is clear you are behind. I would still cap in an attempt to get a free card on the turn.

The turn raise is very bad heads up. At this point you have at most 17 outs (flush, gutshot, kings and queens). This is a 2-1 shot to improve so heads up you are losing money.