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View Full Version : pot odds for pocket read, semi bluffing on the flop, and wired jacks


Nick Moore
08-12-2004, 12:18 AM
I have a couple questions.

First, I was playing in a .50/1. limit holdem game at UB. Wired jacks on the button. Several callers before me, so I just call, figuring I'll mainly try to go for trips unless I end up holding an overpair. The little blind raises. For some reason I decide to reraise him when it gets back to me. Is that wrong or right?

He caps it after I do reraise him. I immediately think high pair. Should I call? In retrospect, I am thinking that the reraise on my part could have been correct, but it is a definite fold after he caps it, because this particular player is not a loose weak player but more of a tight aggressive and patient player, plus the fact that he raised and capped in what would be first position from the flop on, suggesting alot of strength.

I do call, and now have an overpair to a paired board of either 9s or 8s and a rag. He bets, and now I'm sure he has an overpair, but he gets two callers in front of me. These are the type of players who if they had trips would raise immediately, and they probably stayed in the capped pot with something like KT or two high cards and thing the bettor is bluffing while betting on high card Ace winning, so I don't worry about them. What I'm worried about is the bettor's overpair. If I'm right, I see six possible combinations each of aces, kings, queens, and tens, with one possible combination of jacks. Thats eighteen losses, one split, which i'll count as a loss to keep that math easy, and 6 wins, which makes it barely worse than a three to one dog for me. Since their are two callers plus the bettor putting in 3 dollars to my 1, is it correct to call, especially now that there is so much money in the pot from the capped bet pre-flop?

He did show Aces and held up.

Second subject.

Since a flush/straight draw on the flop would like several players in the hand, does that make it more correct to semibluff raise in last position than early position, since the double bet in early position could force people out? Or does the extra bet you get from the bettor help even out the less bets from people that are forced out? Also, if you semibluff raise in last position, doesn't the fact that everyone already has money in the pot lessen the chances of winning right now, especially in low limit games, or is that canceled out by the possibility of the free card on fourth street?

dln
08-12-2004, 07:03 PM
You should have raised pre-flop with the jacks if for no other reason than to get the blinds out, since you have a high pair few opponents is ideal. with this play you also would have had more information when re-raised. Although your concern about the callers in such a low limit game is warranted, they would more than likely check to you on the flop, unless they hit one of their overcards, then you make the decision to play or fold.

you never want to "semibluff" raise in early position, because besides losing "customers" behind you who don't want to cold call it, what do you do if they do call and your card doesn't come? you'd be forced to check to them. You can get a free card in late position in addition to increasing your pot odds

Louie Landale
08-13-2004, 01:24 PM
[1] Folding any pocket-pair for one more capped bet is absolutely out of the question. What are you thinking? Even if heads-up there has to be 7 bets in the pot already; plenty enough to make the 7.5:1 try for a flopped set, considering the action you'll get if you DO flop the set: Yup, a set of 2s makes a LOT of money from AA.

On the flop: In your situation I can count about 20 bets in the pot PreFlop. That's plenty enough to call one bet for your 22:1 dog hand to make your trips on the turn since you'll easily make up the difference with turn and river betting (top set against an over-pair and lesser hands). And that presumes you KNOW he's got the over-pair.

The increased size of the turn bet changes things there. Looks like you're getting about 13:1 from the pot to draw; far below the 22:1 you need. Since there seemed no doubt in your mind about his over-pair; folding is routine. I'm not sure, but you need to be figure at least 50:50 he does NOT have an over-pair before you can call; but even then he or someone else is going to beat your JJ quite often even if it IS the best hand.

[2] So you've got a flush draw no-pair-on-board in a multi-way pot. Yes, getting everyone to put in two bets is almost always better then getting them to put in one bet. If the bettor is on your left and there are callers you should generally raise since they'd have to call only one more bet (the only reason NOT to raise is if you figure he'll 3-bet and force the callers to fold). If the better is on your right you should generally call, since they are more likely to call one bet than two-bets cold. No, that single bet you get from the bettor isn't worth as much as the few single bets you can get from the other callers (and it costs you one less bet); unless the pot is big and you have chance to win with a high-card or a pair.

No; betting with a flush draw figuring to get callers is NOT "semi-bluffing"; its "betting for value". Its a semi-bluff if you figure you'll get no callers (great) or exactly one (good) or exactly 2 (about the worst situation). "Free cards" has nothing to do with this distinction; although this possibility adds some to your overall EV.

- Louie