Wasted bet on the river?

[maurile]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (14 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB shows 3s Qs (one pair, queens).
Hero shows Jh Ah (high card, ace).
Button shows 6c 5d (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: SB wins 17 BB. </font>

[Mike Gallo]

Maurile,

By betting you give your opponents the opportunity to fold and yourself a chance to win.

If you check, you give yourself no chance. In a protected pot your river bet will most likely get called,however I would not call it a wasted bet.

[tolbiny]

what would you think about checking the turn?

[Mike Gallo]

With the intention of what, checkraising check folding or check calling?

[tolbiny]

Check calling- but mostly having it checked through as the button has done nothing but call so far there is no reason that turn card should induce a bet from him.

[Mike Gallo]

checking the turn is fine, however I like heros follow through bet on the turn.

[tolbiny]

Why is that- i dont see what it accomplishes.

[maurile]

I would have been more likely to check the turn if I had position, since it would have ensured getting a free card. Even then, though, I probably would have bet to see if I could make people fold. Besides, with the nut flush draw and one overcard against two opponents, I had more than my fair share of pot equity as long as my ace overcard was good. (In fact, on this particular hand, my pot equity was 46% on the turn. Link (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=444336).)

[DrNick]

Maurile,

Apart from the river, I like how you played the hand.

At the river, I look at from a purely mathematical standpoint: will both my opponents fold more than 1/15th of the time?

If yes, bet. If no, check and be done with it.

In the long run, I think you probably lose a small fraction of a big bet here. While it might be tactically incorrect, I might recommend making it anyways for strategic reasons (advertising, manipulating opponents, etc.)

Cheers,
DrNick

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
checking the turn is fine, however I like heros follow through bet on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may get someone to fold here, but to me it smells like a slow play and or some people that aren't going anywhere now that the pot is gigantic. I don't like the idea of betting here cause it seems like you are betting someone elses hand for them. Let them do the work.

[Alexthegreat]

I think checking the turn is the smart play here...maybe you get a free card, maybe not, but I don't think you can expect your A high to win this pot....so go for a free card and check/fold the river if you get no help....You are betting their hands for them, and unless they BOTH have busted draws, betting the turn and river isn't going to send them anywhere.....

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can expect your A high to win this pot...

[/ QUOTE ]
No, it won't. When I said "as long as my ace overcard is good," I meant as long as it gave me three good outs to a pair of aces (that is, I'm not reverse-dominated, and nobody already has two pair or better). My ace won't always give me additional outs, so I need to discount it. Not sure how much, exactly. But on this particular hand, with the benefit of seeing my opponents' cards, an ace on the river (as well as any heart) would have won me the pot, so I actually had more than my fair share of pot equity on the turn, and my turn bet was actually a good value bet -- although I didn't know it at the time.

[SteveY]

Actually your sim was wrong because you put the board cards into the dead cards section. Hard to beleive half the deck gives you the winner. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Link (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=6h+9c+Qh+2d&amp;d=&amp;h=Ah+Jh%0D%0AQs+3s%0D%0A6c+5 d)

[Trix]

You like the flop raise ?

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
You like the flop raise ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like flop raise. Seemed to work OK this time. However, here in this spot... you don't want to knock anyone out. Sure, would like to pump the pot up a bit... but not at the expense of makeing people face a double bet right off the bat.

If you were at a loose table that peeps were regularly calling two cold, and you were convinced it would not knock people out..... then good raise.

[tolbiny]

so I actually had more than my fair share of pot equity on the turn,

You have 12 cards out of 46 after you turn bet- barely over 26% of the cards out there help you- your turn bet is not a value bet with a maximum of 2 callers.
Also there is the possibility of a c/r from the sb if he has 2 pair or a set (which hurts you the most since when this happens you either 9 or 8 outs, no longer 12) and the LP player could have been waiting till the turn to raise his set.

[sublime]

I don't like flop raise. Seemed to work OK this time. However, here in this spot... you don't want to knock anyone out. Sure, would like to pump the pot up a bit... but not at the expense of makeing people face a double bet right off the bat.

The flop raise might protect your Ace outs. You have to ask yourself, is the pot big enough to be concerned about that? Its close here, I could be persuaded either way.

[tolbiny]

however I like heros follow through bet on the turn

Ok mike, what is hero following through? On the flop i like the raise, and even the 4 bet is alright by me with the nut flush/overcard draw. Now on the turn he shouldn't be following through like nothing has changed. A blank hit the turn and now he is essentially 1/2 as likely to hit his draw. Time to check. As a semibluff you cant convince me- i can remember maybe twice when i was in on a hand that was 4-bet three way on the flop and then folded by two players for one bet on the turn. Both times a scare card came, and once i was one of the folders and that was with a very convincing read on my opponant.
Sometimes you will end up facing a c/r from the SB and sometimes you will get raised by the button who is slowplaying a set. This turn bet is -ev IMO.

[maurile]

Thanks. When I was thinking about it later, I knew that had to be wrong; 12 outs is of course worse than 2:1. But who am I to doubt TwoDimes.net? (It would help if I entered the hand correctly.)

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
As a semibluff you cant convince me- i can remember maybe twice when i was in on a hand that was 4-bet three way on the flop and then folded by two players for one bet on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a good point.

[arkady]

you have TWO opponents, chance of both them folding is VERY VERY slim and if anyone has Tp or MP (and its almost obvious they do) you are banging your head against a wall.

[tolbiny]

want to weigh in on the turn bet argument arkady?

[arkady]

after hero caps, i believe the turn bet is almost mandatory considering the turn card probably did not improve them. This is where middle pair *might* lay down, but it is party and we know that aint happening and while he is still drawing and will lose this more often than not, turn bet is good. River bet though...don't agree with it. Bleeding chips is all it is.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
Wasted bet on the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, because once it gets to the river with 14 big bets, you're not going to get both of them to fold. SB is not letting go of Qx for dear life.

Garland

[J.R.]

On the turn his opponents are getting 12-1 to call. At best we are hoping the SB went ape on the flop with a draw (which is consistent with the sb's turn check, but so is a check-raise as hero capped the flop after raising preflop from the big blind so the SB should expect hero to bet the turn), but we know the sb isn't folding for one more bet on the turn.

Yet to act on the turn is the button who called two bets on the flop twice so its highly unlikely the button folds anything as the 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is a blank. Whatever the button had on the flop didn't get better, but the button has to realize your hand didn't get any better either.

Maybe A high is best and maybe you have value if called in 2 spots but those are highly improbable maybes and most often you are drawing to less than 1/3rd of the deck and betting the turn open you up to a raise while having almost no bluff equity. Furthermore, the button appears passive so a free card is quite possible.

[arkady]

I see what you are saying, but I am simply maintaining that if you have any chance to win UI and get a free showdown, then u gotta bet the turn. If you get raised on the turn, then throw it away because even if you catch your A you will not win at that point.

Ok, chances of winning UI are practically nill.

[tolbiny]

I'll say this quietly....

If you get raised on the turn, then throw it away because even if you catch your A you will not win at that point.

Did you miss that he had the nut flush draw?

[StellarWind]

I do not like the flop raise in front of the field.

The primary argument in favor of the raise is "clean up the ace". Guess what? I have a jack kicker. I'm not afraid of Ax. Actually I hope he pays off when I make my ace.

Once in a great while you can isolate against SB with a draw and win unimproved when neither of you makes anything. But the truth is the scenarios where you win by raising are very unlikely and this pot is not very big.

I prefer to keep my chips in my stack and my opponents in the pot.

Raising the turn will almost never cause you to win the hand. They will rarely fold and you often would win anyway. It places an 1 or 2 extra BB in a serious -EV position whenever Button would have given a free card, Button is sandbagging, or SB is checkraising.

Bluffing the river is clearly wrong. Yes, it is entirely possible they might both fold. If your hand is 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif I completely get it. Take a shot at 11-1 if you want to. But AJ? You have the nut busted draw. No one is going to fold a pair at this point with this draw-laden board. If you bet and they both fold, it's because you were winning anyway.

The real question on this deal is whether you should call the river if Button bets behind you and SB folds. Tough one but I say yes assuming this player is typical low-level in that he might bluff a busted draw but will miss a ton of thin value bets with low pairs.

[J.R.]

The primary argument in favor of the raise is "clean up the ace".

I agree with you that this isn't a very compelling justification for the flop raise, but those that make these argument are talking about inducing A6 or A9 to fold (we know AQ won't fold). Its quite a parlay to assume those hands are out there, they will fold for 2 bets, you will win when you catch your 2 ace outs, the times you win with those 2 ace outs are worth this speculative investment (although the cleaning up the ace outs is just one justification for the flop raise), and whatever benefit that comes from a raise aren't outweighed by the ev of calling.

[arkady]

i didnt miss it, but i forgot about it.

i am just going to take my chances on this turn, cant always fear the worst. i bet the turn 100% of the time after i cap the flop, just what i do. Now whether its right or not is a different matter.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Once in a great while you can isolate against SB with a draw and win unimproved when neither of you makes anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB will bet betting out with a draw here pretty often. When that's what SB does, raising is far and away the best play. If the players behind him want to cold call with a pair or something, that's fine because Hero has a shitload of equity against their hand. If they want to fold middle pair, that's even better, since Hero has radically increased his chance of winning the hand.

If SB has a better hand then Hero, raising is at worst a tiny mistake:

1) There's no guarantee that the players were going to overcall to begin with.
2) There's no guarantee that they *aren't* going to cold call two bets, and Hero gains immediate equity on the raise once one of them does.
3) If all of them fold, the raise likely buys the Hero a free card.
4) There is a small but material importance to the possibility of eliminating hands like J9, A9 or KT.

In other words, I think the EV calc looks something like this:

Case A. SB is betting out with a draw. Raising is hugely advantageous, possibly +1.0 BB.

Case B. SB is betting out with a made hand. Raising is slightly disadvantageous, possibly -0.1 BB.

A raise is in order.

[J.R.]

Fot whatever its worth I think that the type of player who is sophisticated enough to jam a draw is opting for the check-raise here, and I think this flop bet is most often a made hand looking for the pfr to raise and offer protection. Say what you will about party idiots, but this is my experience.

[StellarWind]

These raise-to-isolate/call-for-overcalls decisions with flush draws that include either ace-high or a small pair seem to come up a lot. I need to sit down sometime and do a complete EV computation for a couple of them. I think it would be very educational.

For now I've made a small start at considering the situation.

[ QUOTE ]
2) There's no guarantee that they *aren't* going to cold call two bets, and Hero gains immediate equity on the raise once one of them does.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not always true. Suppose we have a 40% chance of winning the hand and SB will always call the raise.

1. If both the players behind us coldcall we gain (4 * 40%) - 1 = 0.6 SB.

2. If one player coldcalls and one player was never calling we gain (3 * 40%) - 1 = 0.2 SB

3. If one player coldcalls and one player is forced out we lose (2 * 40%) - 1 = -0.2 SB

4. If one player was never calling and one is knocked out we lose (1 * 40%) - 1 = -0.6 SB.

5. If we knock out both overcallers we lose (0 * 40%) - 1 = -1.0 SB

6. If no one was ever calling we lose (2 * 40%) - 1 = -0.2 SB

In each case the computation is gain of raising compared to just calling. The overcalls we lose when we force players out count as negative bets. Once we knock a single player out the direct EV from the raise is always negative.

Knocking players out also reduces your implied odds when you make your flush, reduces the number of players available to share the drawing cost on the turn, and exposes you to a possible -EV 3-bet.

It's pretty obvious to me that raising a better hand is quite a bit more than a tiny mistake. I'm not ready to believe -0.1 BB or anything like it.

On course successfully isolating a drawing hand is a coup. About 1/3 of the time you will win the hand because of this. [The rest of the time you would have won anyway by making your hand or he makes at least a pair.] That gives you an extra 1/3 claim on a final pot worth about 7 BB. That's more than 2 BB.

It's interesting that it is a considerably bigger achievement to trap a dominated flush draw than a straight draw. The straight draw has more independent outs and a much better chance of winning when you don't improve.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose we have a 40% chance of winning the hand and SB will always call the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

We hit the nut flush around 40% of the time, if we count our ace outs as pruly clean we hit an Ace/fulsh around 52.5% of the time.
Natually sometimes our A's will lose, and fairly rarely our flush will lose, but our J's are an out sometimes, and a backdoor straight sometimes, and our A high unimproved will win sometime meaning that i think your 40% estimate is far to low.
Also note that the fewer people who call the flop the more likely it is that our A/J/A high outs are good on the river.

If you take your estimate to 45% We win

1. If both the players behind us coldcall we gain (4 * 45%) - 1 = 0.8 SB

2. If one player coldcalls and one player was never calling we gain (3 * 45%) - 1 = 0.35 SB

3. If one player coldcalls and one player is forced out we lose (2 * 45%) - 1 = -0.1 SB

4. If one player was never calling and one is knocked out we lose (1 * 45%) - 1 = -0.55 SB.

5. If we knock out both overcallers we lose (0 * 45%) - 1 = -1.0 SB

6. If no one was ever calling we lose (2 * 45%) - 1 = -0.1 SB


But i really think we have closer to 50% equity here which would make Situation
1. 1sb gain
2. 0.5 sb gain
3. 0 sb neautral decision
4. -0.5 sb loss
5. -1.0 sb loss
6. 0.0 neautral decision.

Which makes it a good case for raiseing here.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
We hit the nut flush around 40% of the time, if we count our ace outs as pruly clean we hit an Ace/fulsh around 52.5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know where your odds come from. You only make a flush 35% of the time. Making a pair of aces is only about 10% more. For a rough EV calculation I think a 40% chance of winning is fine.

Every player should know that 14 is the smallest number of outs that is favored to make by the river. We only have 12.

[ QUOTE ]
Which makes it a good case for raiseing here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising:

1. Is -EV on the flop action including possible 3-bets by hands you need a flush to beat.

2. Significantly increases your chance of winning assuming SB often bets his good draws.

3. Greatly decreases the amount of money that others will put in the pot on the turn and river. This is due both to immediately knocking players out and frightening the ones that remain. Your flushes and even your pairs of aces will drag smaller pots.

4. Will buy you an occasional free card.

Drawing overall conclusions from EV computations that neglect #3 is unsound.