My Preseason Week 1 bets

[MHoydilla]

I bet all the games for this week under. Exactly the same units on each and all for the under. I remember that early preseason games tend to have little to no offense. If anyone disagrees please tell me why. I bet every game from Aug. 12 till Aug 16th.

[jwvdcw]

not a bad theory.

[jwvdcw]

At first I thought this was a good theory. But after looking at the lines- they're all from 33-38! Thats so low! So it seems as if the bookies have already taken your theory into consideration.

I actually like the over in the KC/NYG game. Its only 35. KC is high scoring. And the Giants having a QB battle should mean they both try to put up points.

[jwvdcw]

I went ahead and made my first wager of the season: KC/NYG over 35. Looking good so far- 14 points in the 1st quarter.

[MHoydilla]

Over for KC already in at half time. Im hoping the other two games go under though.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
Over for KC already in at half time. Im hoping the other two games go under though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that was a nice way to start my betting season. 1-0!

GL with the rest of your games. I'll be monitoring how your system works, and maybe I'll try it next year.

I do wish to hear your response however: The lines are nearly as high as regular season lines, so it seems as if the bookies have already adjusted to your 'theory.' Do you still think its a good one?

[MHoydilla]

I have seen many lines drop recently. So far Im 4-1 so I am happy with the results. Unfortunatly I only bet 110 on each game. My theory would definatly be stronger if you placed you bets early. As I got 37 for an O/U in the Jets game today and it went off at 35.5 and the total landed on 36. If you track the lines you will notice that every game so far has closed with line for O/U 1-3pts lower than the opening line. So it appears that someone else knows to take the under but their action seems to be coming in late. Over all I just hope to be up a few hundred at the end of the week.

[MHoydilla]

Well the system held up as I bet all 16 games from Aug12-16 and the games went 11-5 to the under. With one game landing over the closing number NO-NYJ landing on 36, number opened at 37 where I bet it and closed at 34.5-35.5. Even if you got the closing number on the NO-NYJ game you would still have gone 10-6 betting every game under. One of the games IND-SD was under until 6 sec left when Indy 5th string QB through a TD to win the game capping a 70 yard game winning drive. Next year Ill bet the same hopefully for more cash. Unfortunately I dont know any other preseason tips except dont bet game heavy unless you know how long stars and non-stars will play and thats pretty generic advice at that.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
Well the system held up as I bet all 16 games from Aug12-16 and the games went 11-5 to the under. With one game landing over the closing number NO-NYJ landing on 36, number opened at 37 where I bet it and closed at 34.5-35.5. Even if you got the closing number on the NO-NYJ game you would still have gone 10-6 betting every game under. One of the games IND-SD was under until 6 sec left when Indy 5th string QB through a TD to win the game capping a 70 yard game winning drive. Next year Ill bet the same hopefully for more cash. Unfortunately I dont know any other preseason tips except dont bet game heavy unless you know how long stars and non-stars will play and thats pretty generic advice at that.

[/ QUOTE ]

congrats! I'm extremely interesting in your system now. Has it worked in all of the past few preseasons?

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/cool.gif good results on unders on early nflx..

i think there was concern this year about the rule change (bumping receivers), that is supposedly to be called very close, and resulte in multiple defensive penalties and increase scoring; and %passes, thus lengthening number of plays in g too...

i wonder if this will affect totals in reg season..

gl

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