Aggressive with JTs against another AG player. Party 3/6.

[nepenthe]

Table is pretty normal. Main opponent in this hand seems like a LAG, but I haven't been here long enough to draw any conclusions.

One early limper, Villain raises in MP, one coldcaller, folded to me in LP with J /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif, I coldcall. Button folds, SB folds BB calls. It's 5 to the flop.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

O-KAY.

BB checks, EP limper checks, Villain bets, MP calls, I raise. BB folds, EP limper folds, Villain calls, MP calls.

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Villain SNG's and bets out. MP folds. I raise. Villain calls.

River: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain checks, I bet, Villain check-raises, I 3-bet.

How goes it?

[sublime]

I dont really like the cold call preflop, but its not a huge issue.

Your flop raise was to buy a free card, right? And not to drive out the blinds and EP limper?

[nepenthe]

Damn, JTs is just too good of a hand to let go in this spot. Besides, Partiers are stupid and can raise with any ace. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

The flop raise was simply because I have a monster draw. At that point I really don't care if anyone coldcalls, folds, or reraises my raise. At worst, most people will fold and I would have bought myself a free turn with my position. At best, they'll call/raise and I'll get to build the pot with a hand that will win a majority of the time.

[sublime]

At best, they'll call/raise and I'll get to build the pot with a hand that will win a majority of the time.

Well thats the thing, you want to choose the option that will win you the most $$$$$. In this situation I wouldnt be as concerned as usual with the free card as you have a huge draw, so you have to ask yourself "why am i raising"?

On the other hand the pot is already large, so raising is more often than not the best approach. Was just trying to spark some conversation /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Victor]

I do not know what you could be wondering about this hand. The postflop play is fine and really plays itself. Obvious, flop raise with a great draw and free card opportunities. You hit your hand and bet hard on the turn and river. The river 3-bet is a must as he could have A-Q or A-K.

I would say the only marginal play you made was the preflop call, but if you are sure you can get 4-6 callers and you have a good pulse on the table that is fine.

all in all nice hand

[Victor]

At this point in time he will hit his hand nearly 50% of the time so this raise is for equity. In essence he is ahead getting about 1:1 on all the money that goes in. If a blank hits on the turn his odds reduce to 2:1 so he can not ram and jam unless there are a few others in the pot. On the flop, though, he has a huge advantage over everyone else that is putting money in the pot so he needs to try to get as much money in a possible. He already trapped one player and it is definitely worth the risk to raise and hope a player to his left will call two especially as this pot is pretty big and a lot of players like will take one off here with any hand.

I think you would like him to just call and try to keep the other players in. This is, in effect, going for overcalls. However, at this stage, most amatuer players will liberally call 2 at this stage as there are more cards to come. Usually, if someone is willing to call 1 they would also call 2 (especially in a bigger pot) so it is likely they were going to fold anyway.

[sublime]

I know why he raised /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I was asking aloud if that was the best play. The more I look at the hand, the more and more I like just calling the flop bet.

Usually, if someone is willing to call 1 they would also call 2 (especially in a bigger pot) so it is likely they were going to fold anyway.

Ehhhh, I think if hero smoothcalled the flop the chances of the BB and EP stciking around for the turn go up a decent amount.

[Mike Gallo]

I agree with Sublimes thinking/questioning here.

Why would you want to raise the flop? With people to act behind you, you could call and hope they would call also.

If you had the button and everyone called one bet, I can make a case for raising however with players still to act, call so you do not lose any of your customers.

The rest of the hand played itself.

[tolbiny]

I think if hero smoothcalled the flop the chances of the BB and EP stciking around for the turn go up a decent amount.

By not raiseing you are losing 1 bet each from the raiser and the caller and you only have 2 players to make up for it- both of them 1 is not as likely as both the ep raiser and Mp calling your second bet. ALso there will be times when BB an ep call 2 cold, and times when preflop raiser three bets (and when the 2 cold and the three betting overlap it is fantastic) i can't agree that calling is right here.

[tolbiny]

But the total number of customers you can lose is equal to the total number who have already put money in on the flop- The only way you make more calling is if the turn hits one of them for a hand like two pair- while you make more by raising if one of them coldcalls or the originall better three bets.

[sublime]

The only way you make more calling is if the turn hits one of them for a hand like two pair

Are we talking about the same party poker?

[Mike Gallo]

Are we talking about the same party poker?

My thoughts exactly. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[nepenthe]

Well, let me see here.

If I just call the flop one of two likely scenarios will happen:

1) BB and/or EP limper will call along, gaining me a maximum of 2 SB and no chance for a free turn card.

2) BB and/or EP limper will fold, gaining me absolutely nothing and no chance for a free turn card.

3) Maybe BB and/or EP limper will checkraise, but in that unlikely case they would've called two cold anyway.


If I raise the flop, the following can happen:

1) Both BB and EP fold and the others call, gaining me a minimum of 2 SB plus position for a free turn card should I so choose.

2) BB and/or EP calls two cold, and the others call, gaining me much more than 2 SB plus position.

3) BB and/or EP calls or folds, and original bettor reraises, gaining me much more than 2SB plus possible position assuming I cap.

So what am I missing here? Flop raise is clearly the right play, no?

[tolbiny]

The only way you make more calling is if the turn hits one of them for a hand like two pair

Are we talking about the same party poker?

What i meant was there are not to many hands that partiers will call one on the flop with and not two- and most of those hands will be folding on the turn unimproved.

[tolbiny]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Victor]

You are absolutely correct. This situation is very clear. You are ahead now. Put money in now. You might not be ahead on the turn so do not wait.

I think Mike and Sublime should readdress their stance here as it might confuse some people.

[sublime]

You are absolutely correct. This situation is very clear. You are ahead now. Put money in now. You might not be ahead on the turn so do not wait.

How are you ahead now?

[nepenthe]

What he means is I likely have the best pot equity now, because as things stand on the flop, I will make my hand around 50% of the time by the river. I'll get at least 2 callers plus position if I raise now. I'll get at most 2 callers and no position if I just call along. I don't see how the situation is close.

[Victor]

This situation seems totally independent of the stakes or your opponents. I would think it would not matter if you were playing party 3/6 or bellagio 40/80, you raise here for the same reasons.

Please explain to me otherwise? I am quite dense so please spell it out for me.

[Mike Gallo]

You are ahead now. Put money in now.

With an open ended straight draw, the non nut flush draw and a straight flush draw he has outs, hero has a strong drawing hand. He is by no means ahead.

[Victor]

n/m

[Victor]

He clearly has pot equity edge here. But he will not if the turn blanks.

[nepenthe]

But how does the fact that I have the "non nut" flush draw change anything? Do you think it's likely that someone else has a better flush draw? If that were true my pot equity is certainly lessened, but I sure as hell am not buying it. As things stand, I assume my flush draw is good (str8 draw is obviously good) and pump the pot when I'm sure, as I was, that I'll get at least two callers, and the alternative (calling) doesn't gain me anything for reasons described above.

[nepenthe]

Villain had KJ offsuit. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[sublime]

Villain had KJ offsuit.

Nice hand.

Just wanted to clarify what I was posting about last night. I was just wondering if you were going to take the free card if you needed it. If you can say yes(and there are some who will say yes but then bet anyways) then I like the flop raise. If not then I think you should go for the overcalls.

[ZootMurph]

I haven't read the responses, so I'm assuming this all has already been said. Please forgive me if this is so.

You have a monster draw on the flop. Nut straight, 3rd nut flush, and inside straight flush draw. You want as many people in as possible to pay you off when you hit. Raising the flop is not good, as you are chasing people out. So, if you hit, and they can't pay you off later. So a raise is killing your implied odds for the draw.

I think the rest of the hand is fine.

Edit: Heads up, I'd be ramming and jamming the flop, turn, etc. With 4 opponents on a big draw, you want them to stay around.

[tolbiny]

another ally for MG and Sublime...
victor and I have been battleing against the flop call, read our replys and give us your input please

[nepenthe]

This is a bit more interesting.

So the only way that calling the flop can be profitable over raising is if the following happens:

1) BB and EP call the one bet, whereas they would not have called two cold had I raised.
2) They will pay me off when I hit.

So in the above situation, let's say that I called the flop, everyone else called, gaining me 2 sb.

Turn completes my flush, flop bettor bets out again, MP folds (as he actually did), it's my action with BB/EP to act. Do I call again?

[nepenthe]

The crucial assumption here seems that BB/EP will call one with hands they will not call two cold with on the flop, and THEN pay me off further when the obvious flush card comes. I'm not a fan of this assumption at Party 3/6, because if their hands on the flop are so weak that they'll barely call one bet but not two, how do you imagine they'll pay me off when the scare card comes on the turn?

[Victor]

This is true. You must take the free card if you dont improve because on the turn (if you miss) you are only 2-1 to make your hand so you need both players to call just to break even.

[tolbiny]

morning victor... cards tonight?

[sublime]

how do you imagine they'll pay me off when the scare card comes on the turn?

Awww Cmon!!! A three flush is a scare card to a fish? I'm not scared of three flushes /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Also lets not discount the fact tha MP already called one cold, if you dont raise the flop and hit one of your draws on the turn you will have a shot to trap him for two big bets.

[nepenthe]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you imagine they'll pay me off when the scare card comes on the turn?

Awww Cmon!!! A three flush is a scare card to a fish? I'm not scared of three flushes /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

So assuming that you called the flop and got BB/EP to stay in, do you raise the turn and expect BB/EP to call two cold? Or do you smooth-call? I don't know about you, but I've seen that when a 3-flush comes on the turn and someone raises on Party 3/6, most fishes are folding unless they have a good draw.

Also you're discounting the combination of events here: BB/EP must call one flop bet when they would NOT have called two, AND be willing to pay off the turn flush that made my hand. If both of these events do not occur, I do not see the flop call as superior to a flop raise.

I also cannot assume that BB/EP are necessarily "fish" as you say...I had no particular reads at the time. Even fishes come in a variety of shapes - they could be weaktight.

[ QUOTE ]
Also lets not discount the fact tha MP already called one cold, if you dont raise the flop and hit one of your draws on the turn you will have a shot to trap him for two big bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, maybe not. As you can see here MP folded on the turn to a single bet.

*Addendum*
So you ARE, in fact, advocating a turn raise after calling the flop? Do you think BB/EP, assuming one or both of them called one flop bet when they would not have called two, will pay me off here? If not, what have I gained by calling the flop?

[sublime]

So assuming that you called the flop and got BB/EP to stay in, do you raise the turn and expect BB/EP to call two cold?

Depends on the card, here? Probably. Will they call two cold? I dunno /images/graemlins/frown.gif

What if the turn was the ace of spades, do you raise then?

Maybe, maybe not. As you can see here MP folded on the turn to a single bet. '

After you already raised preflop raiser once, of course he did /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

So you ARE, in fact, advocating a turn raise after calling the flop? Do you think BB/EP, assuming one or both of them called one flop bet when they would not have called two, will pay me off here? If not, what have I gained by calling the flop?

I am advocating that you really dont have any outs to protect and the pot isnt that big, so let these guys stick around and maybe pick up a weak hand.

[tolbiny]

I am advocating that you really dont have any outs to protect and the pot isnt that big

We are neither trying to protect outs, nor pick up the pot at this point. In this hand your draw will end up as the best hand over 50% of the time so getting more money in now means you are making more money in the long run. The best way to do that on the flop is to raise. When the turn comes you will hit your hand around 26% of the time- the other times you are no longer the favorite to win- and you now want to put as little money as possible in the pot to see the river- now because you raised a lot of the time you are able to take a free card here.

[bakku]

Edit: Heads up, I'd be ramming and jamming the flop, turn, etc. With 4 opponents on a big draw, you want them to stay around.

You have this backwards, you should be ramming and jamming with more opponents, not HU.


This is an easy flop raise.

[sublime]

We are neither trying to protect outs, nor pick up the pot at this point

So WHY raise and exclude people from the pot?

Listen, you are winning this hand IF you hit your draw, so let them stick around and hopefully pay you off when you do.

[J.R.]

So WHY raise and exclude people from the pot? *

Why not raise to get more money in the pot, somewhat disguise your hand (the opponent may think like you "a flush draw wouldn't have raised the flop and shut people out"), give the BB and EP a chance to call 2 (the pot is already pretty big so they should be more willing to call 2 than in other spots), maybe get it 3 bet so you can cap, make it more likely you get paid off by the villain or mp's made hand when you catch your draw because you will more likely induce crying calls due to the pot size, and the give your self a shot at a free card.

If you call, 2 - 4 bets are likely to be pot into the pot on the flop by your opponents, while if you raise, 4 - ? bets are likely to be put into the pot by your opponents and you may get a free card. Calling limits your upside.

let them stick around and hopefully pay you off when you do. *

This is where I really disagree with you- the opponents with speculative hands (most likely EP and BB) are more likely to call on the flop (and many hands worthy of calling one bet on the flop will call 2) as:
1) the pot odds are better
2) they have two streets to improve
3) flop raises have less credibility than raises on the big bets streets with flush and straight boards where the BB and EP are more likely to accurately conclude they are drawing dead (and therefore not pay off).

*this thread is a bit confusing but I am assuming these comments are in reference to the flop decision.

[sublime]

As usual great response JR /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Its situations like this where I struggle to find the most +ev way to play a hand, and its great to have the inelligent discussion between posters ( in this case tolbi/nepenthe/JR/MG)

[tolbiny]

and its great to have the inelligent discussion between posters ( in this case tolbi/nepenthe/JR/MG)
/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[sublime]

and its great to have the inelligent discussion between posters ( in this case tolbi/nepenthe/JR/MG)

Sweet and stubborn /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[nepenthe]

Thanks for everyone's discussions. Here's a /images/graemlins/crazy.gif just because I love you all.