Convince Me

[NegativeEV]

Please explain to me whether & why this play was poor or strong. After reading Strasser's latest hand post I'm realizing the importance of SnG buyin level on analysis, so please review this in the context of an $11 or $22 SnG.

Blinds are 15/30, assume 9 players and even stacks with no signficant reads on any involved players.

PREFLOP:
Hero is BB with AKo, CO calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

FLOP:
Three players see the rainbow flop of A,9,9. SB checks, Hero bets T150, CO calls, SB calls.

TURN:
Three players see turn of J. Board is rainbow A,9,9,J. SB checks, Hero pushes all in.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Please explain to me whether & why this play was poor or strong. After reading Strasser's latest hand post I'm realizing the importance of SnG buyin level on analysis, so please review this in the context of an $11 or $22 SnG.

Blinds are 15/30, assume 9 players and even stacks with no signficant reads on any involved players.

PREFLOP:
Hero is BB with AKo, CO calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

FLOP:
Three players see the rainbow flop of A,9,9. SB checks, Hero bets T150, CO calls, SB calls.

TURN:
Three players see turn of J. Board is rainbow A,9,9,J. SB checks, Hero pushes all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only better hand that will fold at that level is AJ, and even that is pretty unlikely.

The only worse hands that might call are aces with weaker kickers. It's unlikely that anyone's on a draw.

With no reads, I think that's a very risky play. If one of them has a 9, there's a relatively good chance they'd slowplay it (at that level).

Of course, they could be typical PP calling stations in which case it could be a good play, but you don't know that. It's a difficult hand to play with no reads.

[gergery]

I raise preflop to 110 or so to push out the crap hands.

I bet the flop figuring to have the best hand, and wanting to charge weaker aces.

I check the turn. He is very likely to have an A or a 9. This is one of those situations where you are either very far ahead (he needs 3 outer) or very far behind (you need 2 outer), with ahead being much more likely. I want more info. Pushing is bad…you never fold out hands better than yours, and you don’t want to push out ones weaker than yours because they are drawing so thin.

I plan to call a river bet. Hopefully, a slowplayed nine will think I’m bluffing and bet small so I’ll call it and I don’t lose too much, or if checked to me then bet an amount I think an AQ-A7 will call, say half the pot.. If he has weaker ace, hopefully he’ll bluff at me and I’ll snap it off.

--Greg

[Losing all]

preflop- raise in this situation 100% of the time. advice on the other streets without this mandatory preflop raise seems pointless, but the 9's don't scare me.

[durron597]

You have to raise preflop. I would say at least 120, if not more. Given that you didn't, it's really hard to figure out if anyone has a 9 or not, so I would be very careful about putting all my chips in the middle here.

[NegativeEV]

Thanks for the thoughts gregery. A couple of additional questions for you:

1.) You check the turn. If the CO bets and SB calls, do you call, raise, fold? I'm hesitant on this as I've lost control of the hand if this happens and I'd lean towards fold depending on the size of the bet.

2.) If you plan to call the river, what is your limit for a call? If you would call all-in, then you should probably bet it first unless you are trying to trap and I don't think this is a quality spot for a trap.

3.) On the river, if the SB checks to you and you bet half the pot are you planning on calling even if both the CO and SB come over the top? What if CO calls and SB goes all in? Tough to lay down at that point given size of pot?

[NegativeEV]

Thanks for the response. Obviously it is generally mandatory to raise preflop with AK to narrow the field, but I'm not so sure in this case. I have the field down to 3 and I have a well disguised hand from the BB that can extract many chips if a favorable flop hits. My goal in this situation (SB and CO only involved) is to catch a flop, bet pot hoping for a caller who has a weaker top pair (likely if an A or K flops), and then push in on the turn. I think AK in this situation is better served by checking preflop to extract chips given the fact your hand is disguised and only one caller in addition to the small blind has entered. A preflop raise would likely remove both players as the pot odds would be wrong for a call preflop unless they have a very strong hand. I may well be wrong, but I think eliminating other players here preflop has a lower cEV than a check.

This changes and a preflop raise is mandatory if the blinds are higher (i.e. more signficant portion of my stack).

[tallstack]

I think a good pre-flop raise would have made the rest of the hand a lot easier. You showed your strength with the flop bet (1.7x the pot) and that didn't chase anyone away. At the minimum your opponents should be giving you credit for an ace, but neither went away, nor wanted to take the lead.

The problem I have with them both calling is that there are no likely draws, so they should have hit something. Against 1 opponent, I would lead out again for sure, but against 2 opponents, I would check behind the sb and you will either give a free card (not that bad with poor draws on the turn) or get to see the strength of both your opponents before having to decide.

As far as fear of the 9, I would be more inclined to think that if anyone has it, it is the sb, since most would lead out with an decent ace on that flop or if the ace was weak then why call your large bet.

Dave S

[NegativeEV]

Thanks for the response. My natural tendancy here is to raise preflop as well, but I'm thinking this through and have convinced myself that checking in this specific situation preflop is appropriate- Please see my response to the post above for my rationale. Essentially I think a preflop raise has a pretty low cEV as you'll probably take down the small pot preflop. It seems that a player who has solid post flop play can increase their cEV in this specific situation by checking preflop and extracting chips from KQ, A10, Ax, Kx, etc. that may have limped preflop from CO or SB postion. Now my post flop play may evidence the fact that I am NOT a strong post flop player, but I still think the check preflop is higher cEV in this situation at a $11 or $22 table as I mentioned in my previous post.

Please set me straight here.

[NegativeEV]

Thanks. Our thinking is generally similar on this from the flop on, but someone will have to reply to my additional posts as to why a check preflop is not OK in this specific situation. On the turn, I agree with your thoughts that a check is appropriate. The fact that there are TWO others who called the flop bet gives me concern with the 9,9 on board. With one caller or no pair on board this hand is much easier, but I like the check on the turn all else considered. Obviously this forces you to lay down to a large bet on the turn or river, but I still agree.

[durron597]

The reason you have to raise here is NOT to limit the trash. Firstly, you want to raise to have a guaranteed way of winning chips, which is always good (because any hand can be beaten). It's better to win some chips than to lose more chips later because you felt you had to play a hand like TPTK even though it wasn't good.

Secondly, if the preflop limpers don't have an A or a K, even if you do flop TPTK you won't get much action from them (most likely) because they will be afraid of the overcard.

Finally, and most importantly, you must raise to limit the range of hands that you can put them on. They could be limping with a lot of things, but when deciding what to do on future streets you have the knowledge that they called your preflop raise, meaning their hand must be capable of doing that. You can be sure that if the flop was A22 that anyone who called your raise most likely does not have trips unless they flopped quads, which is unlikely (and still most people don't call raises with 22). Anyway, had you raised, you could safely say that it was unlikely that they called your raise with a 9 unless they felt that they could call a raise with 98s or T9s or A9; but it's very unlikely that they would do it.

Make sense?

[NegativeEV]

Your thoughts absolutely make sense. However I think that your logic may be more applicable at the higher buy-in tourneys or in later rounds of a lower buy-in. I'm not comfortable with making an assertion as to the quality of an opponents hand based on their calling of a preflop raise early in a $11 SnG unless I have a read. These levels often have more than one player who will call a raise to see the flop with K9, A9, Ax (particularly if they have already called the blind- i.e. specific to this situation). I don't think you pick up much information as to their holdings unless your preflop raise is exceptionally high in this case.

Also, I think there are MANY players at this level who would fold preflop to a raise when they have KQ, KJ, K9, Ax, but who would NOT fold to a pot sized bet on the flop when they hit Top Pair. Keeping these players in helps us gain significant cEV here. Again, the fact that there are many players who would call a preflop raise with a 9 in their hand at this level prevents me from reaching any solid conclusion as to their hand quality even if I raised preflop, so I think I'm better served to extract the additional chips from Ax, Kx when the A or K comes at the $11 and $22 tables. These thoughts may seem conflicting, but it is due to the wide range of skill/knowledge in players that I see at these tables.

If I am able to gain valuable informaiton with my raise from the BB (I see this at the $33 and $55 tables which are the highest I play), then I agree with you 100%.

[gergery]

I missed the double call here and was thinking you were against one opponent. Against two opponents I think it’s more probable you are up against a nine, particularly the SB. If this were alittle further into the game or the opponents could be counted on to be better then I’d say you were for sure. You have to figure they are not complete idiots either. If SB sees you bet and other guy call, can he really still call without an A or a 9, knowing the fish play any A?

To your questions

1) I probably fold. If you figure they have an ace or a 9 to still be here, well, take 3 aces and 2 nines from a deck of cards and put them face down and draw two cards – if both are aces you are ahead, but that only happens 30% of the time. If you’re wrong and they are bad players with JJ, and A5 etc, then you should be able to take their money later.

2) On the contrary, this is an excellent spot to check/call. You will lose less vs. a nine, and make more vs. weaker aces. The general principle of “if you are willing to call, then you should bet” is good if you want them to fold. But you don’t want them to fold, you want anyone with a 9 to bet less, and anyone with a weaker ace to bet.

3) vs 2 players I probably check/call. If they both came over I would fold. Top pair is just not that strong when the board is paired in the “limping zone” and you have two others in the pot when the very logical thing they could have beats you. People will complet in the sb for T15 with a great many hands.

And I think checking the flop is terrible. The pot is 105, or around 12% of your stack –you’d be happy to pick that up with 0 risk. You are giving them implied odds that are very good, and make it difficult to narrow their hand down later – making decisions difficult for yourself, as this hand shows. With position and head to head I might think about trying to trap.

[tallstack]

I might be biased by my dislike for AK early in a tournament, but I would much rather get rid of the trash hands and pick up a smaller pot, or isolate someone in a potentially large pot, than try and slowplay a likely TPTK hand against random opponents. FWIW, I would not slowplay any hand, even aces, early in a tournament.

AK when it hits will always give you top pair or better, and TPTK is very hard to give up when raised. However, I don't believe that TPTK is a good hand to continue with anyone raising after the flop. It puts you into difficult decisions for large amounts of chips.

This is just my opinion, but I think that slowplaying AK will lead you into trouble too often to make it worthwhile.

Dave S

[NegativeEV]

Good thoughts, thanks. I'm weakening on my thoughts of checking preflop that you may see in my posts below. The fact that the pot is > 10% of my stack may convince me to take it down and avoid causing difficult decisions later (rather than try to capitalize on likely 2nd best hands that may call on the flop).

[durron597]

If you raised to 120-150 preflop and they both called, I would be happy to push in on that flop and lose my stack to A9/K9 if they called with that. I'll "get 'em next time", so to speak. Also, I play at the $11 level (I'm not moving up to the $22s until I've finished 100 $11s), and even there there are people who will limp with K9 and will fold it to a raise.

Plus if you get only one caller, that's one less person who might have had a 9, and is now kicking themself for having folded, which is exactly what you want.

Finally, assuming this is party, I would have no problem raising to 150, getting one caller, and then pushing on that flop and taking down the pot right there. T180 into a T800 stack is a 20% stack increase, which is fine with me.

Remember, a tourney is all about survival and safe growth. It's not worth the risk of busting out early just to make risky plays to double up. You will have chances to increase the size of your stack. I've analyzed my play closely, and I've won many tourneys coming into late game with a stack similar to my starting stack and then outplaying people shorthanded with high blinds. I've also lost many tourneys trying to get tricky and take down large pots with monsters when I give people odds to suck out on me. It's just not worth it.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Again, the fact that there are many players who would call a preflop raise with a 9 in their hand at this level prevents me from reaching any solid conclusion as to their hand quality even if I raised preflop,


[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If they will call you with k9, T9 then you definitely should be betting since you are a 2:1 favorite and will make lots of money on their call. You gain MORE CEV if they call you now. You are turning down a guaranteed T100 call at 2:1 to get a hoped for TPTK “monster”. I can’t prove it, but I’ll bet if I did a decision tree mapping out chips and % likelihood it would show betting to be higher play.

[NegativeEV]

I'm softening. I agree, this is a preflop raise situation. After reading your and other posts here, I think the check preflop is too cute and the potential increase in cEV probably does not outway the potential -EV from giving free looks at the flop when I hold AK. The preflop check causes difficult decisions post flop and overcomplicates a simple play.

I'm in for the preflop raise and push on the flop if I'm called preflop.

[t_perkin]

Now you've got the idea /images/graemlins/smile.gif

At this level there is no value in "deception". 95% of the time you are playing hands for their value at this level. PF you almost certainly have the best hand - so make them pay.
Also AK is a very hard hand to play for deception. You just don't make a strong enough hand often enough that you can be confident enough to extract a lot of chips. All too often you will think "hehe - now I got em with my TPTK" only to get shown bottom two pair or a low three of a kind.

Remember that each additional chip is worth less. There is more value in winning T200 every time in this position than winning T1000 once and busting the other 4. (exaggeration, but you get the point).
Although this is not a major consideration in this situation.

Keep it simple, stupid

Tim

[DrPhysic]

Ok, I'll stick two cents in, too. Please remember opinions are like A*******, everybody is entitled to at least one.

The reason you need a 4-5BB raise preflop with this hand is to "protect the hand". You can read it in a half dozen or more books. What it means here is to knock out the drawing hands... Specifically the guy holding K9 or something 9 suited. If you raise enough PF, he folds.

You don't see it very often in $11 or $22 games, but it is ok to raise your own big blind.

Then when the flop comes A99, you are not sitting there wondering if you have the best hand. You overbet the pot, to take it home now. AA99K IS the best hand unless you have let the guy with the drawing hand stay in the game. And the one time in a zillion that you lose to somebody with quad 9s, or AAA99, you just write a nasty letter to the poker gods and forget it.

But you make a strong bet PF, and then a closeout bet on the flop with this hand.

Just my opinion.

Doc