junk hand from the BB - discounting outs, SSH-style

[fryKing]

live 4/8 at NYC card barn. Table is loose, sometimes aggressive before the flop, generally passive post-flop. From memory so point out anything that doesn't make sense.

Hero has T/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif in the BB. UTG Raises, 3 call, loose, wild PF player in the CO 3-bets (this means nothing), Button folds, sb folds, UTG, who I have been chatting with, grumbles about getting 3-bet, so I call feeling safe it won't get capped, 3 limpers call.

<font color="green">Folding here is clearly reasonable, but the pot was going to be huge, the 3-better has junk standards, UTG probably has big cards or a small pair since he clearly isn't going to cap it. </font>

Flop:6 players, (18.5 SB): 8/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Checked to 3-better who bets, CO calls, I call, 2 fold, 1 more call.

<font color="green">SSH on my mind, the pot is an enormous 20 SB at this point, I can't protect my hand with a raise, so I just called. Clearly I'm not folding a pair getting 20:1. </font>

Turn: 4 players, (11 BB) 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif[8/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
EP bets out, CO Raises, Button folds, Hero folds.

<font color=" green">This was tough for me. I sort of improved, I'm getting 7:1 on the call, but my outs are horribly dirty. There's action behind me from EP, who just woke up. I may be drawing dead or to a split with JT. Even if nobody already has a straight, if a T comes, just a J or a 6 beats me, or if it's the T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, that may be no good either.

I tried to calculate discounted outs SSH style here - 1 out for the 7's, 2 outs for the J's, 1 out for the 3 T's, and that added up to a clear fold. Before reading SSH I had never thought about the concept of discounting outs, so I'm not 100% sure I'm applying it correctly here.

Easy/bad/good fold?

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG, who I have been chatting with, grumbles about getting 3-bet, so I call feeling safe it won't get capped

[/ QUOTE ]

Feeling safe that it wont get capped does not mean its ok to call here.

[StellarWind]

Folding preflop is a lot more than merely "reasonable". Don't pay 2 bets to play suited junk.

The cast of characters keeps changing from street-to-street. Please come back and tell us who EP is. Is Cutoff the 3-better or not? Button folded twice. UTG folded the flop?

On the turn I think you are saying that one of the early preflop coldcallers just bet in the face of Cutoff-3-better-and-flop-better, who raised yet again.

I agree, I'm done. This hand is a deathtrap and it looks like we may get raised again.

[papawawa]

you're definetly getting the odds to call. From the action it doesn't look like anyone is betting the flush, and your T outs are definetly not clean, However - 4 jacks, 4 sixes and even if your 2 7's arent't clean b/c EP already made a straight, we'll call that one out (suppose he made the straight half the time)= 9 outs. 46/9 = 5.11 to 1, and the pot is giving you 15BB/2BB = 7.5 to 1. Therefore, you must call. In fact, you need as little as 7 outs for this to be a +EV call. Check that out for next time.

[Richard Berg]

I think you give your opponents too much credit. They could have (or be drawing to) many hands you have outs against: the low end of the straight, two pair, a set, combo draws like Q8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, or nothing at all. With 2 opponents remaining, you may not know which they have, but you can be sure it's not all of the above simultaneously.

Anyway, I would count 6's as 2-2.5 outs depending on the flop action. (I can't tell if CO aka PF-3-bettor is the better or the caller.)

[fryKing]

Sorry, should have been more clear about the PF call - it's pretty bad, clearly I was getting bored, etc. It wasn't the interesting part of the hand though.

I do have the button folding twice, which is obviously wrong. I think maybe the PF 3-better, was MP3,not CO, and both CO and button called before the flop, one of them dropped on the flop, and the other dropped on the turn.

UTG (original raiser) did fold the flop. (yes, that was odd). He said later he had AK, no hearts.

The real question is how many outs the sixes and Jacks are worth. If you give them full value I have about 10 outs and I should call. If you give them 6 outs, I have 8 and should call. If you give them 4 outs, well.... I think if I were closing the action it's a definite call, but the possibility of facing two more bets to see the river is what makes it a fold.

EP called the raise. River was the T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. EP checked, raiser bet, EP called, raiser showed 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif for 2 pair, and my hand would have been good.

I'm not being results oriented, just pointing out that the T or the 7 can't be totally discounted as outs because they clearly do win some of the time.

[MAxx]

You make a good point about the 10's being good sometimes. I think this is exactly what the SSH model addresses by "discounting outs." I know you do not want feedback on the pf call, but I think it is more important than you realize.

[StellarWind]

Let's try to count the outs:

7: loses to JT, 65, set, most other sevens. 2 * 70% = 1.4 outs
T: loses to jack, six, set, better tens-up, T /images/graemlins/heart.gif could be flush. 3 * 50% = 1.5 outs
6: lose to JT, split with T, 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif could be flush. 4 * 80% = 3.2 outs.
J: lose to QT, split with T, J /images/graemlins/heart.gif could be flush. 4 * 85% = 3.4 outs.

That gives 9.5 outs which is about 4-1. On average you need to call 3 bets on the turn for 17:3 odds.

The implied odds are not good. There will be more turn action when you are drawing thin and excess river action when you are beaten. You won't get much when your hand is good.

I retract my earlier comments. The turn decision is close and calling is reasonable. The out count depends heavily on how you read your opponents. My count leans toward "Look at me, I have a nine!" (EP) and "Yahoo, I have a good starting hand" (Cutoff). If EP is closer to JT or OESD+Pair then there will be a lot less effective outs. If Cutoff actually has his postflop betting you will often be facing a set or an overpair that makes a straight draw.

[slogger]

I think the situation is a little more bleak than you are saying. Properly discounting the outs here leaves you with 7 or 8 outs at best (and it's probably more like 6).

Hero is faced with a 7 to 1 immediate pot odds that may look more like 5 to 1 before the action is closed, and the following is a very generous approtioning of his outs:

The (6) non-heart jacks and sixes should not count for more than 3-4 outs, as Hero will often chop with another T and may occasionally lose to QT or JT. We'll generously credit the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif and 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif with 1/2 an out each (4-5 outs).

Add 1.5 outs for the (2) sevens. (5.5 - 6.5 outs).

Generously add 1 out for the (2) non-heart Ts and a 1/2 out for the T /images/graemlins/heart.gif (7-8 outs).

This is the best case scenario (given the amount of info available on the turn). Call it 7.5 outs. This means hero is about 5.15 to 1 to improve.

I think that given the possibility of further action on the turn, Hero needs 8 outs to profitably call two big bets cold. 7 outs leaves Hero in a grey area and 6 would be clearly -EV.

I also do not think the implied odds at work here make a call much better, as the only way he's making extra bets on the river is with a non-heart J or 6 that doesn't make either of his opponents a straight.