I thined the field.. now what? J9s top pair v.s. 2+2er

[bobdibble]

Sigh.. it felt so wrong calling this down.. but I thought maybe he was aggressively playing overcards. Comments on all streets welcome.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 <font color="purple">(2+2erA)</font> raises</font>, MP3 <font color="purple">(2+2erB)</font> folds, CO (poster) folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">2+2erA bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">2+2erA 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">2+2erA bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">2+2erA bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

[WillMagic]

Fold the turn.

Will

[bobdibble]

Why? Because his 3-bet should be telling me that my kicker is dominated?

[Vehn]

Without these kinds of totally unavoidable hands there would be no poker.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Because his 3-bet should be telling me that my kicker is dominated?

[/ QUOTE ]

That or he has an overpair.

[bobdibble]

Can one of the poohbah's decipher that wisdom for me? Does that mean Vehn calls this down, or folds it unimproved on the turn?

[Vehn]

nono - what I mean is you would have read your opponent as terrifically weak to fold on the river here (and folding on the turn is awful for a number of reasons). The main reason is he would only have to be bluffing or betting a worse hand for value one out of ~ten times in order for you to break even on your river call. That is what I mean by the word "weak" here - weak players would almost never be betting a hand worse than TPMP on the river here. Unfortunatly this applies to many (tight) players at the low limits who are trying to play well, so you're kinda hosed either way.

If you're not thoroughly confused by now you should almost always call the last bet on the river and if you lose, you'll get another hand in just a second.

[bobdibble]

Ok.. well good. That is what I was thinking on both the turn and the river. I figured that my outs combined with the fact that he may be bluffing with overcards (i.e. I could be best), should lead me to call the turn... and my thinking on the river was just as you said.

Regarding the turn.. I was concerened that the 3-bet on the flop indicated that I was dominiated and my J outs were no good though. In the end, I figured that he would have played many hands that didn't have the J this way. Considering that I could account for 2 of the jacks, I figured there was a good chance that if I needed the outs, both the J and the 9 outs would be good... so I called.

Unfortunately, 2+2er turned over AJ and took down the pot.

[WillMagic]

I'm missing how folding the turn is so awful. This is 2/4, not 15/30, and a 2+2 player at 2/4 is going to take a free card on the turn in this situation if he has overcards. When he bets the turn, we can probably put our chances of having the best hand at 5% or less, and safely put our opponent on having our hero outkicked about half the time (3 outs) and having an overpair half the time (5 outs.) So, we have four outs and an 8.5% chance to improve, and a 5% chance to have the best hand, giving us 13% pot equity, and we are about 7.4-1 to win this hand on the turn. This would be fine if we only had to call one bet to see a showdown, but since we have to call two bets we need about 5.5-1 odds to have positive expectation, and a fold is correct.

Will

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok.. well good. That is what I was thinking on both the turn and the river. I figured that my outs combined with the fact that he may be bluffing with overcards (i.e. I could be best), should lead me to call the turn... and my thinking on the river was just as you said.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with you and Vehn here. I fold this turn a vast majority of the time.

3 betting the flop with overcards for a free river card or just to push you off a weak (but better) hand is almost never employed at 2/4 or even 3/6, even by a thinking player.

[Clarkmeister]

As usual Vehn is right. You *can't* fold the turn and without a read should call the river also. In fact, you should probabaly bet the river.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
and without a read should call the river also.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has a decent read.

Also, I must know...what do you put the 2+2er on?

[WillMagic]

I would argue that we do have a read - our opponent is a 2+2er, and a lot less likely to get out of line. At 2/4, I find it extremely unlikely that a 2+2er would bet the turn with overcards instead of taking a free card. Against a standard 2/4 opponent I would advocate calling down.

Will

[WillMagic]

Let's look at this differently.

It's a standard party 2/4 game. You have AK, or KQ, or AQ in middle position. A couple limpers in front of you, you raise, the bb calls and the limpers call.

The flop comes J85 rainbow. It's checked to you, you bet, and the bb check-raises. The limpers fold, and its your action. You decide to reraise, and the bb calls.

The turn comes a blank. The bb checks.

How many of you bet in this situation? Because this player is a 2+2er, and he's probably thinking the same way we do. Taking the free card is the correct play and it's not even close.

From our hero's perspective, after the preflop and flop action, we should be fairly convinced that either our opponent has overcards or he has our top pair/no kicker badly beaten. And after he bets the turn, the possibility that our opponent has overcards is severly diminished.

Our hero should fold the turn. I'm quite certain of it.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
As usual Vehn is right. You *can't* fold the turn and without a read should call the river also. In fact, you should probabaly bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

At last! Clark has made an error in a post, and I am here to correct it. The proper spelling is probably .

You're welcome.

[ZootMurph]

If I'm MP2, I play the same way with a set, overpair, AJ, or two overs against an unknown, except I check the river with 2 overcards (AK, AQ, KQ).

In your situation, I would ocassionally bet out on the turn or river, and fold if raised. Most times, I check/call.

In this particular situation, I check call the turn/river unless I improve. The reason... preflop he raised with two limpers in front in MP2, making it more likely he has a very good hand, probably an overpair. If he openraises or is in later position (CO or Button), then he has a wider range of hands he could be playing, and betting out on the turn is telling him you have top pair...if he still reraises I fold, unless this one is apt to bluff overcards a lot.

[Holm Fries]

I played an almost identical hand last night, but I held QJo against an unknown player. I c/r a flop of J52 attempting to protect my hand (everyone stuck in the middle called anyway, which I guess was OK), was 3-bet and went into call down mode. I was shown AA, but I still think you have to call this down.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that we do have a read - our opponent is a 2+2er, and a lot less likely to get out of line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone who has watched me play has seen me get out of line with overcards. Waaaay out of line.

[boring chris]

Agreed, I think a call on the turn was the right thing to do. It's hard to really put people on hands in the 2/4 setting. However, the fact that the guy was a 2+2er makes a difference. Typically I wouldn't have a problem check-calling that on the turn and river, because many typical overaggressive 2/4 guys would have bet that way with 10-10, AK, and AQ (or lower PP). Because this guy was a better played, his river bet would have me fairly certain that I was beat, but it is worth the 1 BB call. I would have played it the same way.

-chris

[Clarkmeister]

"Because this guy was a better played, his river bet would have me fairly certain that I was beat,"

I am wondering when "2+2er" turned into "over-predictable and weak".

You checkraised on a ragged board. He could/should 3-bet with lots of hands, many of which beat you and many of which don't. The concepts of aggressive play and value betting are hammered home here all the time. In this case, he probably *should* keep betting with overcards as your hand doesn't at all need to be as strong as top pair to checkraise the flop. In short, if this guy is so predictable that he will only bet the turn in this sequence with top pair or better, he's not as solid as you suggest, and you should describe him as somewhat weak tight. But even if he is that weak then you know you can safely fold to a river bet and should assume you are against an overpair. Call for your 5 outer, checkraise if you hit or fold if you miss if he's that weak. Otherwise call the turn and bet the river.

[Bill Smith]

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately, 2+2er turned over AJ and took down the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this statement. FORTUNATELY, 2+2er turned over AJ and took down the pot. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

IMHO, I think he was right in calling down. I would most certainly have 3-bet with TT, 99 or maybe AK. From my perspective, he could be raising to thin the field with not only Jx but also something like A8s or 99.

[MVicuna]

Bob's play is important too and could influence the other guys betting. Maybe Bob only CR the flop with TP and always sees a showdown with TP. Bob's predictability could lead an observant player to play a line thats just as predictable.

I do agree though, if you want to win the pot more then your fair share you need to bet the river regardless of what comes.

MarkV.

[BaronVonCP]

I think you give 2+2ers too much credit. The general population is "overpredictable and weak".

[cnfuzzd]

I agree. Look at me.

peace

john nickle

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you give 2+2ers too much credit. The general population is "overpredictable and weak".

[/ QUOTE ]

[raises hand]

[WillMagic]

I am wondering when "2+2er" turned into "over-predictable and weak".

Again, this is 2/4 and not 15/30. Let's put ourselves in the position of the opponent holding AK. We've raised preflop, the flop comes J85 rainbow, it's checked to us, we bet and the bb check-raises. So what range of hands are we going to put him on? Until I'm given evidence to the contrary I assume most of my 2/4 opponents are loose-passive. So although it's POSSIBLE that the bb has something less than top pair, it's unlikely that he has middle pair or a straight draw, because he probably would have just called with those hands. He most likely has a jack - the kicker could be good or bad, we don't know. So when the limpers fold, we reraise for a free card.

The turn comes a blank, and our opponent checks to us. Are you really going to bet with unimproved AK here? Our probably loose-passive opponent showed strength on the flop. He might fold...maybe 1 in 25 times. Maybe less. If a loose-passive opponent had a strong enough hand to check-raise the flop with, he's certainly has enough to call you down. I was under the impression that this was lesson #1 - don't bluff bad players because they will call you. If you guys are betting your AK unimproved here, then I think you are definitely making a mistake, because your opponent isn't going to fold enough to make the bet profitable.

So back to our hero's case. In at least 90% of situations I would recommend calling the turn and betting the river.. If this were 15/30 he should call the turn. If his opponent wasn't a 2+2er he should call. If Hero's opponent knew that Hero was also a 2+2er Hero should call. But most 2+2ers play predictably at 2/4, because predictable play is correct when the vast majority of your opponents aren't paying attention to you.

Will

[W. Deranged]

I really agree with Will's two posts here... There are conceivably three hands that the 2+2er could be playing that our hero is beating, and I strongly agree with Will's idea that AK seems to be a very unlikely holding here. (The 2+2er would indeed have to read our hero as very weak or very sneeky here to think that the check-raise didn't signify a hand worth calling down with). Will's earlier post further shows that our hero does not have nearly enough equity in this pot to call down if the raiser does in fact have a better jack or an overpair.

I am very interested in the "many reasons" why folding the turn is such a bad idea. I know I must be missing something, and I'm interested to know what it is.

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's look at this differently...

The turn comes a blank. The bb checks.

How many of you bet in this situation? Because this player is a 2+2er, and he's probably thinking the same way we do. Taking the free card is the correct play and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, and my default play, though it could be affected by a read, is to bet here. I don't want to give any free cards to 9T, 67 or some garbage draw. I also have 6 outs against top pair and I do not expect my opponent to bet the river, so I can check behind unimproved on the river. I make 2 big bets when my hand hits and more times than not lose only one big bet when I miss AND my opponents has a hand.

Just wondering, assuming you take the free card and miss, do you fold to your opponent's river bet? If so, I think you're opening yourself up to being bluffed by a busted draw.

[WillMagic]

If I'm holding AK, I would really doubt that my opponent has a straight draw after he check-raises the flop. Because, if he's bad, then bad players are tend to prone to call with their draws and only very rarely raise, and if he's good, he wouldn't check-raise because it drives out the rest of the field.

To be honest, I wouldn't reraise the flop here against an unknown 2/4 player, because I think there's a good shot that I'm going to get capped and that my free card play would not work. My default play would be to call and then check/fold the turn without improvement on this board.

But I do see where you are going with this. You kind of have to bet the turn with AK because of the reasons you listed, which means that the hero has the best hand more often, which means that calling might be better than folding. It depends on how often you think you have the check-raiser beat with AK. Obviously it's not often, but I guess it is often enough to make betting worthwhile.

Back to hero, again, I now think it's a lot closer for him on the turn, because his winning chances are better. I'm not sure which option I advocate now.

Will

[Clarkmeister]

Will,

This isn't a random 2/4 player. This is a player who once you label him a 2+2er I assume plays good aggressive poker. And i assume that he views "me" the same way. A good aggressive player should checkraise this flop with any pair, and some draws. Our opponent in this hand should know that and is likely to play accordingly. This includes putting pressure on a draw or small pair by pressing AK on the flop and turn when the cost is very small considering that he is almost certainly drawing live even if behind.

If the hand involved an unknown opponent or an opponent described as predictable or loose passive, I'd have given a different answer. But since the hand was posted with presumably a good aggressive player as our opponent, I stand by my posts in this thread.

[slogger]

Your points about the unlikely nature of a flop checkraise from a straight draw are well taken. But I think my point survives this fact (as you seem to acknowledge).

I bet the turn (with AK) because of the combination of the likelihood that my hand best AND the likelihood that I will hit a card that will make my hand best. I will also be able to fold the river unimproved if my opponent bets into me.

The other point which I neglected to include in my earlier post (because it deals with Hero's turn play) is that although we are not looking at a monster pot, the pot is no by no means small. I think it was something in the neighborhood of 6 BB going to the turn, which given the possibility that Hero's top pair is good and his 3-5 outs when he's behind, makes the turn call correct (7 to 1). Of course, Hero must call one bet on the river unimproved (9 to 1), but will be able to check-raise a 9.

[StellarWind]

Well played. Sorry you lost.

You have five outs against AA and a possible best hand on the turn getting 8.75-1. Remember that if you miss you have the option of checking the river and will sometimes get a free showdown when you are ahead because overcards won't bluff every time. Therefore you absolutely cannot fold the turn. It is decidedly +EV to call even if you refuse to invest another cent when you miss.

On to the river. Suppose it is correct to fold at 9.75-1. From the perspective of MP2 you have a very strong hand. With this uncoordinated flop I don't expect a TAG BB who just called preflop to have better than top pair very often. It's just really unlikely.

If it is correct for to you fold top pair when no bad cards come, then it must be correct for MP2 to bluff all the way to the river without looking at his cards. There are 9.5 SB in the pot on the flop and he will rarely lose because you always fold unless you have better than top pair. His play will be hugely profitable.

Whenever your opponent can get rich by always bluffing, you need to take a hard look at your strategy. This is game theory's way of saying you are playing mathematically incorrect poker. The only justification for this type of incorrect play is a read that your opponent is playing even more incorrectly in a way that justifies your strategy. Specifically he doesn't bluff nearly as much as he should to punish you for your abject weakness.

There are players like that in the world. I don't usually think of them when the proffered read is "2+2".

Folding this river against a good player as well as most other types of players is very wrong. You will lose your shirt.