How long til I know if it's working?

[sethypooh21]

Hey all,

Short time reader, first time poster (here at least...trying to get disembroiled from the cesspool of jealously, paranoia and idiocy that is RGP...)

Anyway, I switched 6 handed games about 3 weeks ago (had some bonuses to work off), and have been hugely succesful, WR approx 5.5 bb/100 over 10k hands (mostly party 1/2 though some [500 total hands] ub 1/2 and 2/4, party 5/10). However, reading this board, I've noticed that my style differs markedly from that which is commonly recomended. I seem to play significantly looser and slightly more passively preflop then what is recomended. (just under 50% flops seen, pf raise 12% or so.)

My question is, is 10k hands enough to conclude that I must be doing something right, and carry on (while looking to plug leaks...axo and kxs for me it seems), or have I just had a really nice run of luck and should be worried about the inevitable downswing?

Thanks in advance,
SP

[fnord_too]

10K hands is not enough.

There are several threads in the theory forum on this, here is a good recent post on the subject.

Click Me (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=906898&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#Post907380906898)

[ProfLupin]

There are stylistic differences among proven winning players, but the one thing that is common to all winners is that they play tight-aggressive poker. So if you are noticing that your play is "significantly looser and slightly more passive" than the people in this forum, I would definately try to patch your game up before you have your inevitable downswing. You'll eventually encounter downswings even if you play good solid tight-aggressive poker, but you're setting yourself up for bigger and more frequent downswings by playing looser and more passively.

Congrats on your good start and I hope you learn some good stuff here. I would highly recommend you post specific hands. It's definately the best way to learn.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
or have I just had a really nice run of luck and should be worried about the inevitable downswing?


[/ QUOTE ]

[sethypooh21]

Well gee, let me start by posting my stats for critiquing, and then I'll post two hands which I won which I think I played not well...

VPIP 44.05
VPSB 75.47
PFR 13.15

Fold to steal SB 53.85
BB 23.92
HU 18.69

W$WSF 34.35
WtSD 34.64
W$SD 50.74

AF pf - .37
Flop - 1.75
Turn - 2.08
Rvr - 1.73

Fold to river bet 46.29

Looking at these myself, I'm guessing people will say call way less and raise a little more preflop (working on that. As I mentioned in my previous post, am quickly learning which hands to dump.) I think my preflop passivity comes a little from the fact that the majority of my play previous to 6 handed has been NL, where the flop and beyond is where you make it happen. At least in the 1/2 party game, I feel I play play several orders of magnitude better than my opponents (not saying that much, true.) On the preflop aggression thing, I am not comfortable enough with the small/med pairs to consistently open raise/ 3 bet with them. Partially this is also the looseness of the party 1/2 game, where most seem to be happy to call 2 more bets in the bb with t7o and the like...)

Please critique, and I'll post 3 or four hands indicative of problems I've been having.

Cheers,
SP

[Peter_rus]

Actually on 1/2 level you can see 40%-42% of flops and be more passive and be a winning player. 50% - is way too much. Additional % of SF decreasing your average results.

You are also too loose on blinds for these tables.

Generally you must be tighter on blinds then on 5/10 or 10/20 as people usually raising only with better hands.

The most terrible mistakes people do there is bad Postflop play - chasing with bottom pair etc so YOU MUST see more flops then on higher level to get your results as high as possible. Some passivity is because you often play marginal hands - it's normal. Also you can raise PF a bit more to increase your average results.

[sethypooh21]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually on 1/2 level you can see 40%-42% of flops and be more passive and be a winning player. 50% - is way too much. Additional % of SF decreasing your average results.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, even over my small sample, there are hands that I can see I should clearly be dumping, and my flop percentage has been low-mid 40's in my last couple sessions.

[ QUOTE ]

You are also too loose on blinds for these tables.

Generally you must be tighter on blinds then on 5/10 or 10/20 as people usually raising only with better hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like I want to disagree with both parts here. Maybe I'm just playing with a few more maniacal types, but pf ep raises with A3o and 97s have been fairly common. Plus, these people don't do very well getting away from their hands when I do catch something. Incidentally, I'm only losing between .01 and .03 BB/hand from either blind. (not sure exactly as I don't have PT at work...)

Even though the raises may mean 'less' in terms of hand value in a bigger game, my experience is that the quality of my opponents play post flop is better so I'm getting worse implied odds. In my (limited) play in higher limits, I've been much more selective both in defending my blind and in choosing when to complete from the SB.

[ QUOTE ]

The most terrible mistakes people do there is bad Postflop play - chasing with bottom pair etc so YOU MUST see more flops then on higher level to get your results as high as possible. Some passivity is because you often play marginal hands - it's normal. Also you can raise PF a bit more to increase your average results.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Post flop is where I get most of my value, and as my stats show, my aggression ramps up considerably on these streets.

I haven't really learned how to play pairs below TT or non Ace-paint/KQ for raises yet. I routinely 3 bet out of blinds vs. weak/lp raisers with 66-99, and raise 55+ from the co/button if folded to. Any other tips?