Big draw free card or fire again?

[NotMitch]

Stars $35+3. 5 left, I'm chiplead and playing very tight, have yet to show down a hand. What should my turn action be here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (5 handed)

SB (t2265)
BB (t1335)
UTG (t1405)
MP (t1605)
Hero (t2390)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, SB folds, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t195) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets t90</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, BB calls t110.

Turn: (t595) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t595) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t595

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB shows 4h 8h (one pair, fours).
Hero shows Ac 6c (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins t595. </font>

[Phill S]

your a big fave all along, however there is a possible straight there already.

he bet at you half pot, and you raised back like you should, but i would of shut down on turn unless my card came.

in heindsight (sp?) he would of called on turn and beaten you anyway. but your not to know this.

what id say is take the free card on the turn, youve paid enough for it.

if you make, try and get paid, but remember, no matter how big it is, its still a draw. with limited stack and time, you take it to reduce your potential losses. i think it was McEvoy who states that in a freezeout sometimes you have to give up some equity to conserve your stack. i think the overall factor is the chip you win is worth less than the chip you lose.

i would of played it like you did, and i believe it is the right descision. once he told you he was hanging on with the call on the flop, why fire into a hand with only potential, and no value.


Phill

[patrick dicaprio]

you raised the flop and he called so you are not winning the pot with a bet on the turn, so checking it down is fine here. when i read your post i thought he had a 5, i was surprised to see bottom pair, but poeple will be tenacious callers sometimes. i certianly wouldnt want to cough up a lot of chips here.

Pat

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
you raised the flop and he called so you are not winning the pot with a bet on the turn, so checking it down is fine here. when i read your post i thought he had a 5, i was surprised to see bottom pair, but poeple will be tenacious callers sometimes. i certianly wouldnt want to cough up a lot of chips here.

Pat

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I disagree, I raised preflop and raised the flop, I think a turn bet does take it down quite often here. And given what he had I think close to 100% of the time. The bigger problem being is I hate to get raised out of this pot and if he comes back over the top I have to fold.

[HUSKER'66]

I would use my tight image up to this point and throw out another bet on the turn (t300?). It's enough to bluff at the pot; too big for him to call with proper odds on a draw or if he holds a small piece of the flop it will get him seriously thinking he's beat and he might dump.(haven't looked at the results- don't want to skew my response)

I think it's highly unlikely that he would be holding something like a 6/8, though you have a better read on what cards he'll play for a 3xBB PFR. The smooth call of a potsize bet on the flop has me a little worried, though your definately not drawing dead.(I don't fear a set here)

I'd still make it t200-300 on the turn....the nut flush plus a str8 draw still makes a semi bluff bet correct in my eyes. No reason to give him a free card.

JMHO

Husker

[MisterKing]

This is player and "texture" dependent, imo. If the guy will call you down with any pair, you're better off taking the free card. Otherwise, I think you MUST bet. Here's why:

Looking at the math,if you think there's a decent chance he'll fold, you have to bet this. Reason is, you have 18 probable outs, 15 of which appear to be solid (any club, any 3, any 8). You will draw your winning card at the river 33% of the time, 40% if you include the Ace. So if you repeat your flop bet (t200), you will:

Win t595 there some % (X) of the time when your opponent folds to your bet, win t995 either 33% or 40% of the time when he calls, and (presumably) lose t200 when he moves in over the top of you on the turn some % of the time (Y).

Since I'm no math whiz, why not plug in some arbitrary values for X and Y and see how it comes out.

Looking at the BB's betting pattern, its hard to put him on AK, or indeed anything much better than A7 -- though a slowplayed set is a definite possibility if you think he's skilled. Two pair is extremely unlikely. A medium pair (88,99) does seem possible, though a monster (KK, AA) does not, since there was no re-raise to protect against a club draw on the flop. Only one of these hands (slowplayed set) will move in over you with a re-raise on the turn. So why not peg Y (the % he'll re-raise you on the turn) at about 10%.

How often he'll fold to another t200 bet is also player dependent, but if you figure him as I did above, you've got to think he might call with his A7, 88, and a few other holdings, but would fold underpairs, AK, AQ, gutshot draws, and so on. He will probably not fold KcQc or similar second best flush draws. So, again out of thin air, a fold % of about 30% sounds about right.

If you'll win t595 right away 30% of the time when he folds, lose t200 10% of the time to a re-raise, and win t995 (plus future bets) 20% of the time (33% of the remaining 60%), and lose t200 40% of the time when you fold on the river when you don't make your draw, then your EV is +t27.75 per hand.

Frankly, I think its probably higher than this in reality, since you might be able to show down ace high and still win sometimes, and since you may be able to induce a call on the river when you do make your hand, esp. when the BB improves to a solid second best hand like trips vs. your flush or straight.

For a bet on the turn to be -EV, you would need to worry that he'd fold less than 30% of the time (how much less I do not know), and re-raise more than 10% of the time.

Hope this isn't too confusing &amp; good luck!