Is river bet positive?

[Peter_rus]

My opponent sees 40% of flops with 16 PFR and with 51 W$SD. No other reads. If his W$SD would lower, say 45 or less i would never bet river. And what do you think?

I thought the turn bet was auto and i also understood that i nearly never can push out an ace but i also think i push out better hand - small-to medium pocket pair, high cards or even J.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Ts 9h (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.25 BB. </font>

[stripsqueez]

i wonder what he has to call the flop raise and then bet the turn - a small pair probably shouldnt do either of these things

betting out on the turn is a plan - i guess i dont need to ask if this opponent is the sort who will bluff raise a turn bet which is the primary argument for not betting out

if he has a J then he probably should call - if he has a smal pair which he shouldnt have, as discussed, then he should probably call too

is there a 1 in 6 chance he will fold to your river bet ? - probably - ultimately what i see is a crappy player getting punished

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[chio]

probably not, since you're going to fold if he bets anyway, and the only hand you beat that will fold is a bare king on a gutshot draw or flush draw

check, hope he checks behind and that you win

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
and the only hand you beat that will fold is a bare king on a gutshot draw or flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think so. He isn't a LAG. He thinks of what i can hold in pocket. So i play against him nearly as i would play against me. If i have low pocket pair or J i can easily fold this bet on river against decent player.

[kiddo]

But if you flopped toppair, would you check turn if it was an A? When you check-call turn I would think you are on a draw, or have a low pocketpair, calling it down. Would be very strange not to bet 2nd pair headsup?

On river a decent player normally dont bet when they have something little, that could win a showdown. They bet when they think they are ahead or when they dont have a hand winning a showdown. Your turncheck would make me call your riverbet if I had a hand good enough to beat a bluff (say a small pair).

[Peter_rus]

He raised PF and call my raise on flop. I suppose he has an ace nearly 40% of time which makes me some problem with his raise on turn if he turned it. Also i suppose - decent player can semibluff with turn raise when A turned nearly 5-10% of time so if i has Q i wanted to see a showdown also inducing him to bluff.

Also if he shows weakness and check turn as well i would bet river.

Then on river i find another Q and supposed to have 3 of a kind and afraiding he might check behind i bet...