Take the free card on the turn?

[The Setup]

Table has been loose-passive so far.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG posts a blind of $2. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

[StellarWind]

I would bet the turn and hope to get a free showdown if I didn't improve. You need to protect your vulnerable hand. Almost any two cards someone might fold are six outs against your pair of fives. Compare scenarios:

1. You check the turn. The river is some overcard to your fives. SB bets, fold, fold, and you call.

2. You bet the turn. SB calls, UTG folds, MP3 calls. The river is the same overcard. Check, check, check.

Each scenario requires you to put the same amount of money in the pot. Scenario 2 forces MP3 to put an extra bet in the pot that you might win. In scenario 1 he folded the river when he missed his draw. Scenario 2 also forced UTG to fold his hand before the river. If he had say QT you just saved six outs that might have beaten you on the river.

Protecting your hand by betting the turn increases the pot when you win and increases the chance that you will win. Just remember that you have to fold to a checkraise.

[MAxx]

stellar, i respect all your opinions. I would take the free card here, and i dont think its close. I dont think your hand is just a vunerable hand that needs protecting. I think it is a very vunerable hand that is not worth protecting. Also, as you mention, you open yourself up to a checkraise that you should not call. freecard and cheap showdown sounds like a smarter move hear to me.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
stellar, i respect all your opinions. I would take the free card here, and i dont think its close. I dont think your hand is just a vunerable hand that needs protecting. I think it is a very vunerable hand that is not worth protecting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Stellar and I don't think it's close. Hero almost certainly has the best hand on the turn, and in this small pot, the other three players may already have literally or emotionally clicked "Fold to any bet." Why give everyone a free card to take these 4BB away from you?

[MAxx]

Here are my thoughts, feel free to shoot them down. I do not have the almost certainly level of confidence that you do about hero being ahead on turn. Combine that with the reverse implied odds that hero faces if he does happen to be ahead, and the possibility of a c/r. This is my reasoning for a free card.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero almost certainly has the best hand on the turn ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Absurd. What do you think the callers hold? 64 just got there on the turn as well, there aren't many drawing hands left. While it is possible second-pair-no-kicker is good here, it's not likely, and certainly not "almost certain".

Since I'm probably going to pay off a river bet if I check the turn, I'm slightly inclined to bet here. My logic is that since the table has been loose and passive, a check-raise isn't likely, and I make more when I catch / protect my hand when I'm ahead / lose the same when I'm behind. However, if I give any respect at all to the callers, I check the turn, so in my mind it's close. Given the lack of draws and the number of callers, this hand is very weak.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero almost certainly has the best hand on the turn ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Absurd. What do you think the callers hold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah...any Ax, any over cards, any 3x, a worse 5x...who knows? All I know that three of the opponents were posters who got in free or cheap, everyone checkcalled the flop, and everyone has checked the turn. What I do know is that checking this turn through means that Hero is pretty much giving up on this hand, unless he hopes to stumble into a winning showdown.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Combine that with the reverse implied odds that hero faces if he does happen to be ahead...

[/ QUOTE ]

My understanding about reverse implied odds (and someone can correct me if I'm wrong) is that this is more of a concern on the flop, where there are two more streets for others to catch up, and where one may be presented with difficult choices about having to call more expensive bets/raises when scare cards fall.

In this hand, it is already the turn, so if Hero is ahead, everyone drawing to their overcards and gutshots are paying Hero with their expensive calls, without proper odds, to try to suck out. Furthermore, Hero has already bought the button, so it is very unlikely that he's going to lose more than one bet on the river if his hand is no good, assuming he even decides to call a bet.

Allowing a free card just gives everyone infinate odds to suck out, without giving others the chance to fold.

[The Setup]

Thanks for the replies and views on this hand I have been thinking about it for a while. I felt there were too many callers on the flop and didn't feel comfortable betting the turn. If I were to play the hand again I would have bet the turn and not been put off by the number of callers on the flop.

[MAxx]

Yes I haven't heard of anyone talk of reverse implied odds on the turn. That was just my thinking. I maybe incorrect to use this thinking on the turn, so I would like to know about it. I was considering this in the since of the table being loose and the fact that I am not all that sure hero is ahead on turn. (Since it is also passive I really shouldnt have been concerned about c/r, b/c they would probably have to have the goods to c/r in which case hero would correctly fold.)

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies and views on this hand I have been thinking about it for a while. I felt there were too many callers on the flop and didn't feel comfortable betting the turn. If I were to play the hand again I would have bet the turn and not been put off by the number of callers on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

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[SA125]

You had the button so the flop bet was a good one. That's a good card for you on the turn. I wouldn't be thinking back door flush. If there was a K you probably would have heard from it. Bet the turn.

Question - what if you were c/r'd on the flop?

[The Setup]

I would fold.