Turn the nuts, improve on river, bet?

I thought this was kind of an interesting hand, only because I haven't played many like it before.


I'm BB with KsQs.


2 limpers to LP who raises. He's very passive at times, doesn't raise very often before the flop. In fact, he likes to limp with AA, to "not scare everyone away when he has the best hand". But he will bet when checked to in late position after the flop with a wider range of hands, including many draws.


Anyway, SB and I call. Limpers call.


Flop: Jc 10h 5s


Not bad, I always like drawing to the nuts.


Checked to LP who bets. SB and I call.


LP would play AJ, AQ, AK, JJ, QQ, KK, and AA like this. Like I said above though, I doubt AA.


Turn: [Jc 10h 5s] As


Now we're talking. The nuts with a draw to the nuts. A real good place to be.


Checked to LP who bets again. Still could be any of the above hands. He'd bet KK or QQ here. SB calls. I check raise. Both call. I have no fear of SB, he'll call with any pair. LP is smart enough to know that there's a real good chance I have KQ right now.


River: [Jc 10h 5s As] Js


Don't pair the board, don't pair the board... UGH! I bet?!? LP raises, I make a crying call and ask to see his AJ. Sure enough, he takes down the pot.


If I had taken just one second to think about the situation, I would have checked the river. The only hands that he'll call me with that I beat are KK and QQ. I think he probably makes a crying call with either. Is that enough to justify my bet?


I don't know how many hands I've played where I turned the nuts, improved on the river, and lost. I thought it was kind of interesting anyway.


Thoughts on how I played it?

I don't think you were wrong to bet the river. You were up against two opponents, and there were a whole lot of hands that you would probably have to pay you off. You forgot to mention a couple of them in your list of hands that LP would have called you with on the turn: AK and AQ.


The question is whether you should fold when the LP raises. For various reasons you can probably eliminate a straight (why wouldn't he 3 bet on turn) or a flush (would have to be 10-9s or worse; not likely he would have played that hand the way you described it given the kind of player he is), and so the only question is whether he would raise with KJ or QJ on the river with that board. I think the answer is most likely no.


However, this pot is very big by now -- 15 big bets or so. In limit poker its very difficult for you to give up your hand in the heat of the moment, even if given cool rational analysis you would estimate your chances of having the best hand as less than 1/16. There are also other reasons why you don't want to throw your hand away in a big pot like this -- primarily that it might encourage opponents to take shots at you later on. I don't know whether I completely buy into that one or not, but the point is that I wouldn't beat myself up too much over the call. If the biggest mistake a limit player makes is that he sometimes makes "bad calls" on the river in huge pots, I think that player has very little to worry about.

I did include AK and AQ as hands he could have had on the turn, but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't raise me on the river with those hands.


So, as you pointed out, the real question is should I have called the raise on the river? I think as the hand played out, I win it about 0.001% of the time. I just don't think he'd raise the river without a full house. Of course, that didn't stop me from calling.


I also don't think he could have KJ or QJ. I don't think he raises before the flop with either of those hands.


The more I think about it, the more I think the river bet wasn't bad. He calls me with AK, AQ, KK, or QQ. All hands that he'd have played similarly.