Where Am I At With Top Pair and Top Kicker?

I’m dealt A9 offsuit on the button in a very soft 9/18 holdem game. An aggressive (but not too savvy) player limps UTG, two more weak players limp, a new player in the cutoff who posted a blind checks, and I limp (this is about the worse offsuit ace I’ll limp with in this spot – note there is a big jackpot). The blind checks in this single blind game.


The flop comes a 9-7-6 rainbow. The blind checks, aggressive UTG bets, call, call, call. What is my best move and why?

I just called on the flop, as did the blind. I didn’t want to get in a raising war with so many opponents and a board that was very scary. If I was way behind, the big hands would come to life on the turn and I might be able to get away from the hand cheaply.


Does anyone think folding the flop is better?


Does anyone think raising the flop is better? If so, what do you do if reraised?


The turn comes an offsuit three making the board 9-7-6-3 rainbow. The blind checks, aggressive UTG bets, call, call, call. Again, what is my best move and why?

I just called on the turn as did the big blind. I didn’t think my hand was that strong with this many opponents. At the same time, it just seemed too good to give up.


Does anyone think raising the turn is the better play? If so, what do you do if reraised?


The river is a six making the board 9-7-6-3-6 rainbow. Now all five check to me. What is my best move and why?

I bet for value and didn’t think it was that close. UTG calls saying “the pot is too big” and shows 88. The late poster also called with overcards (I think QJ!).


Comments?


Also, do you like the format of this series of posts where every street is posted separately?

I like the format of the posts, but I don't like that you didn't find a raise on either the flop or the turn. Lots of opponents or not, the action gave strong indication that you had the best hand. Even though raising won't help your hand hold up, I think there's good value in it. As for when to raise, I see good reasons for both calling and raising the flop, but I think a raise on the turn is "called for" given your play on the flop and the turn action (I can imagine countless hands that your opponents could have that you beat in a super-soft la la 9/18 game)


-Dan

I like the call. Aggressive UTG is likely to have a pair+open end draw with something like 89s or 78s that he snuck in with in EP. The fact that he didn't raise preflop puts him in this range fairly reliably. Small chance of a set or pocket 88, but I think the suited connector is more likely.


The callers all likely have some sort of gutshot/overcards. No one raised, so I suspect your hand is good. However, I wait til the turn, since raising here only bloats the pot and makes it difficult to get anyone out on the turn. And they are calling your flop raise regardless. With so many bad turn cards, I call and plan on raising or folding as appropriate on the turn based on the action in front of me.


Call.

I now raise. Still no one appearing interested in doing anything but drawing. Charge them to draw. You will probabaly not drop everyone but that's ok. If you are in front, as much as half the deck could be OK for you. They are unlikely to play back at you now with just one pair+ draw as they would have on the flop. They will view you raising the field as a very strong move, and not many hands will play back at you. You are now the favorite.


Raise.

Bet, you have the best hand and several worse hands can call. I don't think anyone with a 6 is checking here with the pot this big.


Off to the results, this was fun.

Yes, I like the format. I think it allows for more detailed discussion on each street. It also allows us to take our time and think it through "real time" without knowing the results or having our eyes wander down the page.


I still think the turn is worth a raise. In these loose games, I think that waiting for a harmless turn card, then cranking all the draws is a cornerstone of a winning strategy. The only player you were worried about was UTG, and given his probable range of hands, it is far more likely that he has a pair+draw than a set. Things calm down bigtime on the turn in these games and I think that you are really insulated from any monkey business by UTG. If he 3-bets, you are beat badly.


Nice hand.

I think a raise is called for on the turn. A raise charges the draws and allows you to show down on the river if a "bad" card comes.

I think you should have raised on the turn.


This board is obviously dangerous, but with an apparently safe card coming off on the turn and nobody acting very aggressive, I think your hand looks a lot stronger on the turn than it did on the flop. Obviously there are a lot of bad river cards, but I think you should charge your opponents to draw here. If 3 bet, you have to reassess; probably you will need to be done with it.


If you are called, you have to make a decision whether to bet the river for value. I don't think its automatic.


Sometimes this route will cost you more than just calling and making another decision on the river, but much of the time this route will cost you the same, and when your hand is the best hand on the turn, this approach is far better, as you both make more and protect the hand better (by forcing someone with overcards to pay an additional bet or fold).

"Also, do you like the format of this series of posts where every street is posted separately?"


I don't even like it when it's broken into two posts. Reasons: Dozens of times I've had to go back to the first post in order for the second one to make sense, and dozens of times I've wanted to copy and paste text from the post I'm not at any more. And the typical poker hand doesn't deserve chapters.


Tommy

Raise turn, check river.

After the flop, I'd estimate there are about 20-24 safe cards in the deck for your hand (2-4, 9, A, along with maybe 1 overcard and a board card), and you're probably going to need to hit them on both the turn and river to win. If accurate, this gives you a win rate somewhere in the neighborhood of 17-20%, which is plenty of equity to see the showdown with, but not so much that you want to put extra money in on the flop (particularly since you may get reraised and find yourself putting in lots of extra money when your chance of winning is significantly worse). So I think just calling is the best choice on the flop.

I would consider raising on the turn. If you are ahead (and there's not yet much reason to think you are not), there are probably around 20 safe river cards for you, giving you something like 40% equity on the money going in. Since you figure to be called in several places, a raise should show a decent profit even if you occassionally run into a real hand and get reraised (which I think gives you a fairly easy laydown against a reasonable opponent). The pot has also gotten large enough at this point that you probably won't seriously consider folding on the river unless it's a fairly scary card (i.e. T 8 5), so you can probably get a "free" showdown if an overcard arrives.

Looks like a pretty easy value bet. With no one showing much interest on the earlier streets it should be unlikely anyone with a 6 would go for the check raise, so chances seem quite good that you hold the best hand. Being raised would suck, but I just don't see that happeneing here often enough to make it much of a concern.

Why would you check the river? That is almost a dream card that hit. I can't imagine checking.

I like it--reminds me of some old chess books circa 40 years ago.


You played it conservatively, but I would have raised on the tuen, possibly folding to a reraise.

agreed. Just calling on the turn was wimpy. The way the play has gone, it is much more likely Rick

has the best hand.

I assume you're up against all kinds of straight draws, pairs+draws, overcards+gutshots, etc.


So they've all got each others' outs tied up and you're looking at the best hand - you raise.


An alternative is to wait and see how you like the turn card and then get in your raise.


I have been noticing more players in lid-limit willing to call one bet on the flop (loose-passive) but then if a respected player raises, they decide they're further behind than they thought and bail. Especially if the bettor three-bets. If there's any chance of losing some competition right now, a raise looks like a no-brainer.


Regards, Lee

You can debate calling or raising on the flop.


I can't imagine calling here. If I'm going to call here, I'm not going to play A9o, even on the button for one bet. You flopped 2-sigmas to the good with your hand, you turned 1-2 sigmas to the good with it. If that's not enough to raise, then you shouldn't get involved with it in the first place.


Regards, Lee

Zarchan, he say:


Even though raising won't help your hand hold up, I think there's good value in it.


Exactly. Many folks here tends to obsess about the tactical aspects of raising - forcing people out, getting free cards, stuff like that.


Which is fine. But the whole point of this game is to put more money in when you have the best of it. If you do that enough times, then you make a profit. No, you can't get the guy with a pair+draw out of the pot. But that's not the point. You've got huge equity in this pot, you missed an obvious raise on the turn.


Look, let's put it this way: let's say that we're not even going to deal a river card. We're going to simply turn over our hands right now, count how many outs each person has and award each his rightful percentage of the pot. Now, given that this is how we're going to finish the hand, do you want to put more money in the pot? I think the clear answer is yes. Just as importantly, this is really how +EV poker players play the game. Sure, it's a scary board, and an unpleasant number of times, somebody is going to suck out on you. But you make a profit on every dollar that goes in the pot on the turn - put some more in there.


Fortunately, we're not actually going to do this "assign equity and so divide the pot" thing. Because if we did, the "generous player" (as Tommy so aptly describes them) would discover that they keep getting back less than they put in. And they'd stop being so generous. So while it increases our variance, it makes the game's existence possible. Which is a Good Thing.


Regards, Lee

One of these days I'm going to disagree with Tommy. But not today.


The user interface of this forum simply isn't good enough to justify this kind of format (and it's much more time-consuming to deal with it in this way).


I'll grant you give up a little by knowing in advance what the hero did, but like Tommy, I don't think there's enough meat in most poker hands to justify it. Furthermore, it makes it almost impossible to get a cohesive view of the opinion flow.


Regards, Lee

Raise on the flop,the purpose being to send out a scout ahead of the wagon train if he comes back with 3 arrows in his bum it might be time to head for the hills.If nobody 3 bets yhe flop keep on

firing.

Not to mention that our hero has best position. He could really define the aggressor's hand IMO by a flop raise, and do it cheaper now assuming UTG really has something and comes over the top. It would also make it expensive for the random face to draw out as well, or drop out to a raise as Lee says. Of course, the larger pot could provide improved pot odds for the drawers as well, but methinks too much.

I think the call is a pretty bad play on the turn. I would raise and fold if re-raised.

I just called on the turn as did the big blind. I didn’t think my hand was that strong with this many opponents. At the same time, it just seemed too good to give up.


That's exactly what I was thinking when I played the hand that I posted yesterday. The number of players involved (even though they were calling rather than raising) made me think twice about how good my hand really was. Your position in relation to the bettor also negated the possibility of driving out any hands you'd like to fold. Plus, you weren't completely certain that you could safely muck to a three bet. And, I'm sure, playing in LA you come across some quasi-maniacs who would three bet you here with a hand like J9. While I don't think your flop and turn play was as egregious as mine, it's still nice to know that Rick Nebiolo will occasionally play a hand a bit girlishly.

That's been one of my problems--think that my opponents have more than they really have.


Don't give into pessimism. Now if only if I can play as agressive as I post....

Lee,


Although I wouldn’t make a strong argument against raising on the flop I still think calling is a reasonable alternative. On the flop this particular UTG guy could have me drawing dead, drawing slim, be on a draw or even betting a made hand I have beat; but, in all but the last case, he is capable of a three bet after I raise. Meanwhile, I don’t know if any one of three callers in between us is on a draw, is a bit weaker, or once again has me drawing slim or dead. Now if I call and a blank comes on the turn I will find out if a big hand is in one of the callers between since they will usually raise (if UTG leads again). Against these guys I could safely fold. If a nine or ace comes on the turn I’m raising or betting of course. But if a bad card comes I can fold to any sort of substantial action.


In a nutshell, the thing that slowed me down on the flop is the texture of the board and the fact there was a lead bet and three callers before I acted.


Anyway, thanks for responding. I’ll try to get back to the other posts later tonight if I can’t fit them in before going out for a while.


Regards,


Rick

Coilean,


I assume you think my pre flop and flop call is OK at least. I agree that my turn play is questionable but I still wonder if it is closer than some think. I’m still trying to put my thoughts together and hope to post later tonight.


You are right that if I raise on the turn and get reraised it is an easy laydown (and it doesn’t matter where the reraise comes from).


Regards,


Rick

Clark,


The callers in between UTG and me certainly seem to be drawing. But I felt that I still was behind UTG more often than not, especially given the fact that he led again into five opponents. He is aggressive but not suicidal. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that I should have just called.


Let’s say I am only a 3 to 2 dog against UTG. Everyone else is on a draw so any card that makes a straight beats me. Assuming my assumptions are correct, does a raise here put equity in the pot for me? Note that I can safely fold to a reraise.


Regards,

Our difference clearly stems from our estimation of the chance that UTG has you beat. Given your description, I feel I can narrow his range of hands down considerably. Why? Because your description would have fit me to a "T" several months ago. And the range of hands that I would limp with UTG included PRECISELY 55-88, 78s-JTs, and Axs where x

Tommy,


You are right. I wore you guys and myself out by breaking this simple hand up too much. The main debate is on the turn and that can be covered in one post.


Regards,


Rick

Coilean,


On the flop shouldn’t we also factor in the fact that I may already be behind or drawing slim? The UTG bettor will often be betting a set or top two into a large field. One of the callers could be slowplaying the nuts or near nuts. Is it reasonable to assume I was about a 3 to 2 dog against the combination of the UTG player and at least one of the callers?


On the turn after the blank hits let’s say I am still a 3 to 2 dog against UTG. Since there was no turn raise by the flop callers let’s assume everyone else is on a draw so any card that makes a straight beats me along with 80 % of the paints except for ace,


Let’s say my assumptions are correct, does a raise on the turn put equity in the pot for me? Note that I can safely fold to a reraise.[/b]


In response to Clarkmeister above I asked a similar question. I ask again here knowing you are great at this and I’m just too tired/incompetent/lazy to work it out. /images/biggrin.gif


Regards,


Rick

Clark,


Good analysis. Maybe it isn’t close between calling and raising on the flop. Calling could be much better and maybe someone else would elaborate or disagree. Also check out a point I made under Coilean below.


Regards,


Rick

Ugh.


Ok, so the nutshell response.


I think his range of hands is 66-88, 78s, 89s and 9Ts. You are ahead of 13 combos and behind 6. And I think this is a worst case scenario since he might play a set differently given the board coordination and field size.


I think you are way overestimating the chance that he has you beat. Note all of his possible hands listed above would keep betting in the absence of resistance.

Lee,


I may be very wrong on the turn (IOW, I should have raised and folded to a three bet).


Regarding the flop, the more I read some of the other responses I now believe a call is much better than a raise on the flop. When the lead bettor three bets, I’m either way behind (to a set or straight) or a little behind (to two pair). He won’t three bet with a worse pair and would raise coming in with a better overpair.


Do you still think a flop raise is your best choice?


Regards,


Rick

Lee,


You wrote: ”One of these days I'm going to disagree with Tommy. But not today."


I won’t disagree with Tommy either. But you may not have been around when Tommy was posting about his blind defense (or lack thereof) with implied odds hands against a large field. You probably would have disagreed along with most of us. But going back isn’t fair.


”The user interface of this forum simply isn't good enough to justify this kind of format (and it's much more time- consuming to deal with it in this way)."


One thing I forget sometimes is that I have DSL and use the Opera Browser with graphics off, which is a pretty quick combination for browsing the forum.


”I'll grant you give up a little by knowing in advance what the hero did, but like Tommy, I don't think there's enough meat in most poker hands to justify it. Furthermore, it makes it almost impossible to get a cohesive view of the opinion flow."


Agreed again. This hand is all about the flop and turn play, and should have been contained in a post or two.


Regards,


Rick

Clark,


He would play and bet 76 and gappers such as 97 and 96 too. But I also have to worry about a made hand held by a caller waiting to pop on the turn. I'll stick with being about a 3 to 2 dog to be best hand on the flop.


Regards,


Rick

Dan,


Maybe I agree on the turn but look at the flop again (if you have time) after checking some of the later posts.


Regards,


Rick

On the flop, 3-2 might be generous. Anyways, I think calling is by far the best flop play.


But on the turn, I think it is clear that you are the best hand much more than half the time. By now, the only hand you are realistically worried about is UTG.

If you are a 3:2 dog against UTG, your pot equity is probably in the neighborhood of 20% (2/5 of the time you are in the lead with a ~40% chance to stay ahead, and 3/5 of the time you are on 0-5 outs). With 3 players trapped in the middle, an equity of 20% theoretically only stands to break even (with the value lost when you lose callers perhaps balanced by the indeterminate value of those times you gain a "free" showdown). So, if that's your take, it probably doesn't much matter whether you raise on the turn or not.


However, I think you may be underestimating your chances against UTG since he could have limped with all sorts of crap including a 9 or 8 and just be pushing his top pair or draw. I would be more afraid of a strong hand against a good player, since good players with a weaker hand like top pair (or medium overpair) would probably go for the tactical check raise to thin the field here, and tend to lead with their stronger hands and draws. UTG's "not so savvy" description makes me think he could be playing more simply ("I've got top pair, gotta bet it"), which often means leading with medium strength hands and check raising with strong hands, leaving you against a pretty favorable mix of hands. But you know the guy and were there, and I don't/wasn't, so I could easily be way off base.