Finish what you started?

30/60. Tight aggressive game, with the exception of one extremely loose-passive fish. Fish limps UTG, relatively unknown (assumption that he's solid) player limps MP, 2 off poster checks, I call in cutoff with Ad 10s (my minimum offsuit ace here), the button and SB fold, BB checks.


Flop: Jd 3h 2h. All check to me and I bet. BB, a very good player, calls, fish UTG calls, rest fold.


Turn: Jh. It is checked to me. What's the play?


I'll post the rest of hand in a separate post.


-Dan

The BB seems very hesitant about what to do when I bet on the flop. I thought his most likely hands were therefore probably something like a pocket pair 44-TT or a hand like a pair of three or twos with a big heart kicker.

I checked the turn. It was an obvious steal position on the flop, and the J pairing would be recognized by the BB as making it less likely I had a pair of jacks, so I was concerned that he might checkraise with some middle pair. And then I'd have to fold, which would be really bad, since it'd cost me a big bet and I might be folding a hand with six outs. Was this a bad check?


The river paired the 4. It's checked to me again, and I check. My hand is good. The BB hand KQ (with Q of hearts), and the BB had 10s3s (!), so he got counterfeited.


It was a big time call by the BB on the flop, but he probably would have been better off check-raising the flop or leading the turn. But then again, I have the benefit of knowing what I held. /images/smile.gif

Your hand is big enough to beat a bluff, and the *only* thing it will beat is a bluff. So induce a bluff.


Check the turn, and call on the river if the good player bets and the UTG fish folds. If the fish bets or calls, you're done with the hand.

The 3 flush on the turn is something of a mixed blessing, but I would toss a bet out there and see what happens. You are guaranteed a call from any big singleton heart, but your chances to swipe the pot from a small pair should be greatly enhanced in the roughly 60% of cases where neither opponent holds a heart bigger than a 9 (you are against 4 unknown cards, each of which has an 11% chance to be a A-Th). You might even pull off a parlay and push out a pair while getting called by a singleton heart that whiffs the river.


Since a turn bet only needs to fold a pair ~20% of the time to show an immediate profit (and you may have 4-6 outs if called), I think betting should show a profit over checking here. You aren't really risking much, since you have a pretty easy fold if raised. I think a key point here is that it doesn't seem anyone likes their hand (there is little chance anyone holds a J, given the action), and the turn card had several ways to improve you enough to leave them drawing near dead.

Dan,


I bet 99% of the time. If you check you are almost announcing that you don't have a flush or a jack. Your opponents should fear both, and if they checkraise you are done with the hand.


Regards,


Rick