single table NLHE home game goes horribly wrong... advice?

[Azazoth]

Playing a NLHE $10 buy in with $10rebuy/addon, T1000 to start, T2000 on the add-on.

After the add-on break, i have T7200 or so in 2nd chip position.

Blinds: 50/100
UTG: Call
UTG+1: Fold
MP1: Call
MP2: Fold
Hero: (K8club) Call
Remaining players fold to the button, who calls, SB folds, BB checks.

5 Players see the flop:

Kd 7h 4s

UTG Bets 300
MP1 Calls
Hero Raises to 900
Button Folds
BB Folds
UTG Calls
MP Folds

Turn: 2c

UTG: All-In T4500
Hero: Call T4500 (or so, with T550 left)

River: Jh

Results: <font color="white"> </font> Hero turns over Kc8c, Pair of Kings. UTG shows Ks2d, Two Pair Kings and Twos. UTG wins pot approx T16,000 <font color="white"> </font>

<font color="black"> </font> Two hands later I went all in UTG with A9o and lost to KTo on the river. Sigh. Thoughts on that hand would be greatly appreciated. Some of my own first:

1) I could have raised pre-flop to thin the field. The problem is that I have reads on many of these players, and a decent line of the play of nearly all of them, and I know they're playing subpar hands. I don't WANT to push K2o out preflop when I hold K8s. I also figured that I'd HAVE to fold to a reraise, and many of these players are capable of a bluff-reraise.

2) Shove all in on the flop. I really didnt' like this play either as, again, I don't WANT to push K2o out of the hand.

3) Fold the turn. A player I respect at the table said he *knew* UTG had K2 when he pushed. I had a slight suspicion, but thought it was just as likely he had TPSK or second pair/big kicker and was shoving all in on a blank. Could I have known he paired his kicker?

Thoughts would be appreciated... I've been on a terrible losing streak recently getting drawn out on by beaten or dominated hands for my past five or six tournaments (I know, not a tremendous streak by any stretch of the imagination, but demoralizing none the less), and I'm trying to figure out if it really is just bad luck or if there is something I could be doing to prevent such beats.

(by the way, if someone could explain to me how to use UBB code, or point me to somewhere I could learn, much appreciated... even with the 'instant ubb code' at the bottom, i still couldn't put my results in white)

[kyro]

My best advice is to fold K8s before the flop. Since you decided to play it, you just can't throw your chips away on top pair, average kicker. The chance someone has K9, KT, KQ is too great to be risking your tournament.

[slogger]

First of all, you should probably just fold K*s before the flop - it's not a great hand.

If you are going to play it, though, you must learn that making a pair of Kings with it is not enough to risk all of your chips (especially CALLING an all-in). K8s is not worth all your chips unless you hit a big hand (at least two pair).

What did you put your opponent on when he bet the flop? I would guess that he had a king, no? So, I actually think you played the flop well. You put in a reasonable raise and the initial bettor called. What do you think he has now? I still think he's got a K, no?

For the sake of argument, we assume UTG has a K. How many kings are you ahead of on the turn? THREE (K3, K5 and K6) Behind? EIGHT (AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K7, K4 and K2). Add to this the fact that a player who you just raised on the flop called your bet and then pushed all of his chips in on the turn, and I think you've got to lay this down.

There are a lot of tourney situations where you need to be able to lay down a hand that you suspect is best because there will be better situations later on. I don't even think this one is close. Not only should you play it safe here, but I think a decent read will tell you that your behind and drawing very thin.

[Azazoth]

**For the sake of argument, we assume UTG has a K. How many kings are you ahead of on the turn? THREE (K3, K5 and K6) Behind? EIGHT (AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K7, K4 and K2).**

Actually, due to my read on him, I KNOW he doesnt have AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9. So he could have 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. 50% ahead, 50% behind. If I'm ahead, I'm WAY ahead, and if I'm behind, then I have between 3-12 outs. So on my read, I'm at least 60% favorite.

However, I must thank you, as I believe you've identified perhaps the biggest hole in my tournament game: I don't lay down winners.

I can't even believe I just said that, but it's true, and it's acutally my problem. If I think I'm ahead, even just a little bit, I'll fight to the bitter end. Folding would have left me with about T5000, more than enough to do some damage, and slightly less than average stack (i'd have been 3rd or 4th of the remaining 7 stacks). Calling left me crippled, and in a position where I had to push all-in with the next ace I saw (which, of course, was drawn out on). But the fact that I might be laying down a winner, that I was PROBABLY ahead, made me stay in, when in reality I shouldn't have been risking my chips.

I've only been playing poker seriously for two years, and tournament poker for about 10 months. I consider myself a good player, I've read a ton on the subject, but sometimes I forget that I still have a whole lot to learn. Thanks for the dose of perspective. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
**For the sake of argument, we assume UTG has a K. How many kings are you ahead of on the turn? THREE (K3, K5 and K6) Behind? EIGHT (AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K7, K4 and K2).**


[/ QUOTE ]

ok, how about for the sake of argument we start being realistic, and think of an even wider rang of hands that he might have, like sets, two pair, etc. usually people who limp UTG try and have something good, but obviously K2 isn't in the normal range of "good" hands. so you really believe you can put somebody who plays this trash on a hand.

[ QUOTE ]

Actually, due to my read on him, I KNOW he doesnt have AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9. So he could have 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. 50% ahead, 50% behind. If I'm ahead, I'm WAY ahead, and if I'm behind, then I have between 3-12 outs. So on my read, I'm at least 60% favorite.


[/ QUOTE ]

ah, you say you are a good player, but you risk your tourney on a read where you are a 60% favorite (not counting the fact that your logic is incredibly flawed in thinking this)

[ QUOTE ]

However, I must thank you, as I believe you've identified perhaps the biggest hole in my tournament game: I don't lay down winners.


[/ QUOTE ]
why in the world would you want to lay down the winning hand?

[ QUOTE ]

I've only been playing poker seriously for two years, and tournament poker for about 10 months. I consider myself a good player, I've read a ton on the subject, but sometimes I forget that I still have a whole lot to learn. Thanks for the dose of perspective. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

no offense, but of course you consider yourself a good player, thinking like this is what keeps a majority of players who post on this site winning players.

anyone want to dig up the inthacups poll about what you think your skill as a poker player is, i consider myself a 7 at using the search feature, but i can't seem to find it.

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, due to my read on him, I KNOW he doesnt have AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, Az. How do you "KNOW" he does not have KJ, KT or K9?

I'll accept if you say he would've raised with AK or KQ, although, I think you might be surprised by some players preflop thinking (or lack thereof). But it would have to be one hell of a read to know that he could not possibly have KJ, KT or K9.

[Moozh]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, due to my read on him, I KNOW he doesnt have AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9. So he could have 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. 50% ahead, 50% behind. If I'm ahead, I'm WAY ahead, and if I'm behind, then I have between 3-12 outs. So on my read, I'm at least 60% favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're looking at this the wrong way. First of all, if someone calls a raise on the flop and pushes all-in on the turn, you're usually going to need better than top pair middle kicker to be ahead. But, it's your friend and your read, so I'll trust you there.

Still, even with your read you say you are only a 60% favorite. In tournament poker, this an automatic laydown.

Had you been playing a ring game, you can make a call as a 60% favorite. You just can't do that in tournament poker.

The difference between tournament poker and ring poker is that in tournament poker, each extra chip you get is worth LESS than the chip that came before it. Let's look at your situation to illustrate the point. You decide to call his bet:

40% of the time you lose the bet and effectively go from a commanding position to all but out of the tournament in one hand. For simplicity, we'll assume that once you lose this hand, you will not win any money in the tournament.

60% of the time you win the hand and get more chips. This is good, but how good? Well, it's likely you've locked up money, but are you actually getting more money than if you had folded? Just because you have more chips now doesn't mean you get more money if you win first or second.

Let's assume you pretty-much doubled up in chips. Does this mean you're going to get twice as much money from the tournament? Since you were already in second and in good position, probably not. You'll definitely be more likely to finish high, but not twice as likely. In fact, since you're clearly one of the better players in the tournament, there was already a high chance that you would finish high without the extra chips. Let's say your EV increases 50% from this call.

Well, you lose 100% of your money 40% of the time for -.4 (1 * .4) and you win 50% more money 60% of the time for +.3 (.5 * .6). That's a result of -.1. NEGATIVE. And that's assuming that your call will give you an extra 50%. I don't think it even gives you that much.

If your opponents are so bad they're calling big raises with K2, you should be able to get your money in as a much larger favorite than 60%. But, you can't do that if you don't have any chips. That's why you should not be calling all-ins by other players without a very very strong hand.

[Azazoth]

Hmm... well, as unnecessarily offensive as your post was, Ill try to dignify it with responses.

First, you may wish to actually read my post. This is a *home game*. The people I'm playing with aren't SnG strangers, they are my friends. Yes, I have a read on him, and YES, he has K7-K2. If you wish to question my poker skills, fine. Other than 3 money finishes (out of 6 entries) at the Tropicana Sunday $40+15 NLHE Rebuy tourny, I really don't have much to point to and say "There, see, i AM a good player" I don't think I can put just any player on such a narrow range of hands, and furthermore, any player worth his salt limping in under the gun probably has something far, far better than K7o. But this isnt just any player. I know this guy. I drink beer and watch tv and play video games with this guy. When I tell you he has K7 through K2, he HAS K7-K2. I beat this guy heads up (as in, starting with the same stack in a heads up NLHE game) about 80% of the time. I had him on a narrow range of hands. And I was right.

As for laying down winners, maybe I should have said 'probable' or 'possible' winners. Hands that may very well be ahead, but aren't worth risking the tourny on.

I don't think im a 10. Or a 9. Or even an 8. The fact that I won't sit at anything above a 6-12 limit game should show that, or maybe the fact that the aforementioned $40+15 is the biggest buy-in tourny I'm willing to play. Part of that is that I'm a college student without the bankroll to support bigger buy-ins, but part of it is the obvious truth that with a year of experience under my belt I'm really not ready for the big leagues. Yet.

That having been said, just because I don't consider myself an 8, 9, or 10 doesn't mean I fear them, or that I allow the 'knowledge' that they are 'better' than me to influence my decisions.

Sponger... I have been reading this forum long enough to know that your kinds of responses, though represented on this site, are far from the majority, and that your style of condescension is not indicative of the attitudes of most of the players here, whose opinions I respect and value, but rather the unfortunate result of a slightly above average player lashing out in an attempt to make himself feel like a slightly better player by comparison.

Oh, and a little lesson...saying 'no offense' is like shooting a giant flare into the sky and screaming "The following statement will be offensive!"

Also, if my ability to gauge my own poker skills is flawed and is 'what keeps a majority of players who post on this site winning players', why tell me? *No Offense*, but perhaps you aren't one of that majority, eh?

This has been my first and last 'flame'. I don't really approve of them, but as this was the closest to being 'called out' that I've ever been on this or any other message board, I felt the need to defend myself a bit. Can't let them push you around, right?

[Azazoth]

He will raise UTG with K9 and up. Every. Single. Time.

He has put me on a King. No doubt.

He therefore has a King with a lower kicker, and is pretty sure I don't have an A or Q kicker (since I would PROBABLY have raised). So he is most likely raising to push me out.

Don't look at his shove in a vaccuum. Look at it as a raise all-in after calling when he was dominated. It will give a much better appreciation for exactly the skill level we're talking here.

60% may have been conservative. It's actually reasonably likely he has utter, utter garbage, or a straight draw, or a gutshot straight draw. He has called me with gutshots all-in on the turn countless times before.

[Moozh]

The 60% was an arbitrary number and doesn't really matter. The point is that if you call and lose you're done. You'll have no chance to use your skill advantage anymore. If you call and win, you really won't be that much better off than you already were.

If you fold, you still have plenty of chips to outplay them later.

[Cleveland Guy]

Okay - so you had a good read on him, knew how to play him, and he beat you this one hand.

Is this turning into a bad beat post?

[Sponger15SB]

sorry, i just get a little tired of people who post a hand, and then argue with everyone who responds.

that being said, i've been playing for a year, and i'm in college, so don't expect much sympathy from players around here, because there are a lot of posters who are in the same boat.

[Azazoth]

Maybe?

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Honestly, I don't know. I think the problem is that when I look back at a tournament, I want to know what I did wrong, why I lost, and what I can do, or not do, the next time to win. The only problem is, Poker doesnt work that way. You can play right and lose. You can play wrong and win.

Let's kill this thread... I've gotten everything I needed out of it, and further posting will degenerate into a bad beat post even further than it already has. My thanks to all who gave well-thought out, helpful responses.

Oh... and some time soon, maybe even today, I'll post the escapades of a friend of mine with what I can actually call *the* worst poker related luck ever. Just need to figure out which board to post it on.... (Even if bad beat stories bore you, these are at worst funny enough to read)

[AtlBrvs4Life]

Why limp with K8s? I think this was your first mistake and your biggest.

When your friend pushes on the turn, do you really think you have him beat? Would he make this same play with a king and a horrible kicker? It really doesn't seem like he would, because he just called your bet on the flop instead of pusing right there. The bottom line is, I don't think calling an all-in with top pair, 8 kicker is a good play this early in a tournament.

[ddubois]

"2) Shove all in on the flop. I really didnt' like this play either as, again, I don't WANT to push K2o out of the hand."

Maybe not, but you do want to bet enough so that his implied odds for chasing a 3 outter are crushed, if you are going to pay him off the rest of your stack if he hits (which you did). You're making him put 600 more into a 1700 pot, and you've got 4500 more you are willing to give him if he hits. 600:6200 is indeed forcing him to make a bad call to chase a 3-outter, but it's not by a wide margin, and he does have top pair, so in a way he's got some overlay to call on the chance that you are bluffing or whatever. Given that your tournament livelihood is on the line, I can see an argument for betting more on that flop; not all-in, but more.

And I think you have to lay down the turn.