PDA

View Full Version : Full House Possibility


getfunky
08-06-2004, 06:55 AM
What are the odds and the formula for calculating the odds of getting a full house by the river when you hold two pair after the flop?

aloiz
08-06-2004, 11:54 AM
I'm assuming you want to calculate the odds of making a boat or better.
Two pretty easy ways to calculate it are as follows.

Calculate the odds of not hitting your boat and subtract that from 1, including the possiblity of hitting runner-runner of the only single card. 1 - 43/47 * 42/46 + 3/47*2/46=~ .167 or 4.97 to 1

Calcuate the odds of hitting your boat on the turn or the river. Make sure to adjust for the times you double count either hitting quads or two three of a kinds. The second term is accounting for the times we make the runner-runner to trip up the only single card on the flop.
( C(4,1)*C(46,1) - (4*3)/2 )/C(47,2) + C(3,2)/C(47,2) =~ .167 or 4.97 to 1

aloiz