Mikey
08-06-2004, 04:28 AM
I'm just thinking of something very simple like this problem, yet sometimes I find it too complex and I'm not sure what to do in the heat of the moment and feel that I may be making a mistake by folding.
I raise with A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif and I get called by the BB
The flop is 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.
The BB bets into me.
Lets count the pot, there are right now 5 SB's in the pot, lets assume a $10-$20 hold'em game.
$50 in the pot.
Now here is the math part lets assume that both of my overcards if either one hits I'm a going to win this pot.
He has bet into me.
I have two overcards and the chances that one of them will hit on either the turn or river are (41/47) x (40/46) = 3.14 to 1, or quite simply .24% of the time.
Also I have a possible backdoor flush draw which if my calculations are correct are (10/47) x (9/46) = 23 to 1, or quite simply .0417% of the time.
Now if I add both of these percents together I will get .2815% which makes my effective odds 2.5 to 1 against winning my hand if I were to call $10 now and $20 on the turn to win and lets assume this opponent calls all bets on the river and the turn which are now
pot effective odds of $50 to $100 this would indicate a fold on the flop since my effective odds are 2.5 to 1 against winning this hand right??
Is my math correct?
Should a fold on the flop be in order if I suspect a straight forward opp.??
I raise with A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif and I get called by the BB
The flop is 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.
The BB bets into me.
Lets count the pot, there are right now 5 SB's in the pot, lets assume a $10-$20 hold'em game.
$50 in the pot.
Now here is the math part lets assume that both of my overcards if either one hits I'm a going to win this pot.
He has bet into me.
I have two overcards and the chances that one of them will hit on either the turn or river are (41/47) x (40/46) = 3.14 to 1, or quite simply .24% of the time.
Also I have a possible backdoor flush draw which if my calculations are correct are (10/47) x (9/46) = 23 to 1, or quite simply .0417% of the time.
Now if I add both of these percents together I will get .2815% which makes my effective odds 2.5 to 1 against winning my hand if I were to call $10 now and $20 on the turn to win and lets assume this opponent calls all bets on the river and the turn which are now
pot effective odds of $50 to $100 this would indicate a fold on the flop since my effective odds are 2.5 to 1 against winning this hand right??
Is my math correct?
Should a fold on the flop be in order if I suspect a straight forward opp.??