general bubble play question with AK

[Meatmaw]

When in bubble play (4 in Stars SNGs), if the loss of a coin-flip will put you down to 8-10 BBs and in 4th place, would you fold AK if the 4th place player goes all in and you feel there's a decent chance they have a pocket pair? My inclination is to call it, but I'm not certain if people advocate play of a bit more cautious nature.

The more I think about it, the more it seems right to call the all-in. Opinions?

[RPatterson]

Can you give us made up chip stack sizes amongst the 4 players.

[Phill S]

if you are 100% sure they have a pocket pair (which you obviously cant be) then id say fold. your a marginal underdog, however hes a marginal fave to take a huge chunk of your stack.

again, tho, made up figures would be nice to be sure of chips counts.

but if you think they will make it with any ace-face, along with pocket pair, and possibly KQ, then definately call. it gives you a huge shot to winning the game, and thats what you should be aiming for at the buy in.

the differing answers above illistrate something important. the second answer gives you a great shot at first place, the first answer gives you a great shot at fourth place.

Phill

[The Venetian]

Take this for what it's worth, because you've put forth a pretty vague scenario.

With four people left, an all-in raise from the short stack covers a wide range of hands, pocket pairs included. If I were your opponent, I would be ready to gamble it up with a large number of hands you have dominated (Ax and Kx), so to assume he has a pocket pair and fold is pretty weak.

You're focusing far too much on the downside result and not taking into account the positives from getting this guy all-in.

Look at it this way:

If you have him dominated (Ax, Kx), you'll win about 70-80% of the time, depending on suits.
If he has a pair, you'll still win about 43-45%.
If he has KK/AA, well tough luck, but there's no reason to assume that in the situation you've given.

To be nice and conservative, let's assume if you have him dominated, you'll win 70% and if he has a pair, you'll win 40%. To make this a true coinflip decision for you, you would have to be about 67% sure he has a pocket pair. Again, given the range of hands that should push all-in in this spot, I can almost certainly say that there is less than a 2 in 3 chance he has a pocket pair.

The basic fact that you will still be in a playable situation if you lose should push you over the top here.

I think a more interesting question could be would you still call if he flashed you the pocket pair. Personally, I believe the EV (cash-wise, not chips-wise) from calling in this spot still would be worth it.

You should call in this spot every time.

[poboys]

i couldn't agree more with your analysis--most short stacks will go in with a lot worse than a pocket pair. I'd say you have at least a 50% of holding a dominating hand. What a perfect chance to knock the short-stack out.

What would you call his all-in with?

Also, consider your position should you win. You'd have his chips and have a much better chance to winning the entire tourny.

[Meatmaw]

Thanks for all your responses. The chips were something like:

blinds: 75/150
UTG (me): 3000
BUTTON: 6000
SB: 1500
BB 3000

I raised to 600 with AK, SB goes all in, and I pondered the call, which in the end, I felt was the correct decision.