$50 NL Party - LAG's river overbet

[JrJordan]

Haven't been at the table too long, but UTG certainly stands out. Seems to be in most pots. Often times raises and reraises with nothing, then shows his rags when the opponent folds. Ironically, he seems to be pretty good at his maniac profile, if that makes sense. Also, in two seperate hands he has made massive all in overbets: one time he had the nuts, the other he had rags.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 5 handed)

SB ($62.30)
Hero ($114.50)
UTG ($207.50)
MP ($17.20)
Button ($45.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $1, MP folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, UTG calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($20.50) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises to $197.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $89.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: $322.50


I will post my own analysis and comments after a few replies.

[Sponger15SB]

well, one thing i usually think when i see a big stack $175+ on these tables is that they usually suck.

i don't know what it is, but i rarely see solid players racking up such big stacks, normally its the maniac who suckouts on huge pots and continues to get lucky, and given what you say about this guy, he probably fits this profile.


that is, unless he is afraid of the large stacks, which a lot of maniacs are for some reason, and the fact that he seems to tangle with you right now after your huge bet makes me think he has something..... i don't know if it is a straight though, haha

[SkippingGoat]

You're calling $90 to win $140. If this is a guy who will call a preflop raise with any two cards it's hard to put him on a hand. However, if he's been observant, he could take you off a 7 with your preflop raise and push all-in knowing that you would "have to" fold without it. Therefore, I think this is a pefect time for a "maniac" to make a play like this without the goods. But again, his previous play in the hand isn't revealing at all of what he could have (a draw, a little piece of the board, a draw and a little piece etc.) so this seems to be more or less a seat of the pants decision based on his previous play. When he pushed all-in with rags was is after a scare card had come off like in this situation? What did the board look like when he pushed all-in with the nuts? Ultimately you have to win this hand less than 38% of the time for it to be profitable so if you think there's a 50% chance he's bluffing it's a pretty easy call.

[JrJordan]

A few more responses and I'll post comments/results.

[Garland]

I don't think you can fold. Either he has the 7 or not. If he has it, God bless him.

Given your description of the maniac, I think you take this pot down way more times than not.

If I weren't against a maniac, but someone who bluffs a lot I might simply check and call a bet and hope to catch a bluff.

Garland

[AtlBrvs4Life]

Against a LAG, I call here 100% of the time and take his money almost as much. I think your call is good regardless of the results.

[mrjetguy]

There's no way that I am folding this hand against a LAG player. At best he has an overpair or two pair 90% of the time. No straight unless he is a total nut and higher trips would be unlikely. So call and prepare to rack in the digital chips! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Rah]

He could have anything. I'd sure wouldn't fold this one. Please tell me you took him down /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[JrJordan]

Okay, a few responses. Most of them agreeing that an all in call is the best move here. Seems like the chance that he's pushing with an overpair ot 2 pair is just as likely as the 7. My comments on play below...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 5 handed)

SB ($62.30)
Hero ($114.50)
UTG ($207.50)
MP ($17.20)
Button ($45.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5.
UTG calls $1, MP folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $4, UTG calls $3.

<font color="blue"> I am still very, very new to the 6-max games. Trying to adjust to the increased aggression for preflop starting hands. Small pocket pair with folds around, seems like a good steal hand because I'd rarely get paid for a set. PF raise seems reasonable right? </font>

Flop: ($8.50) 4, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6.

<font color="blue"> I'm up against a "smart LAG", most likely this flopped missed him and he has overcards of some sort. I bet a bit more than 2/3 pot to try and take it, but don't really want to get too committed with 3rd pair. When he calls, I decide to slow down. </font>

Turn: ($20.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

<font color="blue"> An overcard comes, and I decide to check/fold unimproved if he bets significantly. There are better times to ger my money in vs. a lag. He checks behind as well and I'm at a loss to what he has. Minus a miracle 7 for the straight or 5 for the set, I'm committed to not putting any more money in the pot. </font>

River: ($20.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, UTG raises to $197.5 (All-In), Hero calls $89.50 (All-In).

<font color="blue"> Set... okay. My two options, bet or check to induce a bluff and just call. The issue with this opponent is that any bet by him here is most likely to be a massive overbet all in, he's done it twice already. If I check to him, the induced bluff would most likely be a push. I bet out $15, hoping to end the pot right there with a call, but be willing to call a push here because of that chance he's bluffing. This seems like the lowest variance way to play him, but I'm not sure if it's the most +EV. I may be tempted to check/raise him if he makes a bluff bet, but he could put me all in afterward and I'd be in the same situation. Many of you suggest to call this all in after my bet... would you make the same decision if you check to him and he pushes over the top? </font>

Final Pot: $322.50


Results: LAG tables 97s for the stone cold nuts, makes a cute comment about how he LOOOVES to overbet and I'm gritting my teeth to rebuy another $50. I charged him for the open ender on the flop, and don't think I could've made a bet on the turn with 55. My only question is did I give him the correct implied odds preflop to call with a suited one gapper? I feel more confident that my call is right here... not too many players would play a 7 to this point.

[soah]

One of the dangers of raising with weak hands is that you often have to slow down on the turn because you don't really know where you're at. Then you're left with guessing games on the river. You were given the option to see the flop for free; why not take it?

[JrJordan]

It seems that the key to the 6max games on Party is to be aggressive when you're confident you are ahead. I am confident my 55 is ahead preflop, as all I have is a limper heads up from UTG. I'm raising this flop, not only to show aggression, but also for value as the better hand. More often than not, the villain will miss this flop completely (more exactly around 2/3 of the time). I want to bet here and take this pot down now. I do not want to play this for a big pot, and ironically my preflop raise helps with this. For all my opponent knows, I am holding AA and will fold when either he misses the flop, or often times when his overcard makes a second or third pair.

There is some foundation to your argument though when I consider the type of player I am against. A LAG like this is hard to push out of the pot. He is more a combination of a calling station with bluff/raising tendencies. This, combined with playing out of position make it very difficult to play post flop when you don't have a monster. This is why I checked through on the turn, even though it was certainly possible I was still ahead. I wasn't willing to play for a big pot until I flopped that set. As long as you're a decent post flop player (something I have failed to reach in 6-max games so far), then I still think this is a warranted raise. You're not playing this for set value heads up and out of position. Take the pot here.

[Kirkrrr]

FWIW, I agree completely.

Kirk R.

[Triumph36]

Don't forget that the only card that you want to see is a 7; even your set card may be no good. I'd take a stab at that pot, knowing that I am probably ahead here but that each card that comes off is a threat to my hand.

Though, if the player is a calling station/LAG, it's tempting to check/fold and find a better spot to get my money in.