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ChessMan
08-05-2004, 10:54 PM
Hi I need some help analysing the odds on this one:

TT vs AQ of spades. Assume TT has no spades.

If the flop is showing 3c 4s 5c, what are the odds? I think I'd prefer to hold TT, but I'm not sure which is really better from a pure theoretical odds perspective.

The best I can figure is that TT has 7% chance at a set, and 4% chance at a straight. Of course he is already winning with the pair.

As for Mr. AQs he's got 24% chance at pairing the A or Q, and he has 17% chance of hitting the straight.

I guess it's pretty clear then that AQs is an underdog. But how badly is down there?

I lost this in a real game and I'd like to know if I'm right on the analysis: Two overcards plus an inside straight draw is a significant underdog to a made pair on the flop.
Dynasty
08-06-2004, 12:26 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I lost this in a real game and I'd like to know if I'm right on the analysis: Two overcards plus an inside straight draw is a significant underdog to a made pair on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasn't necessary to tell us this. We've been down this road many times before. Anytime somebody wants to know the odds of some outdraw, it just happened to them.

www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net) is a good tool. Give it a try.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=435539
pokenum -h as qs - th td -- 3c 4s 5c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s 5c 3c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qs 390 39.39 558 56.36 42 4.24 0.415
Td Th 558 56.36 390 39.39 42 4.24 0.585
joker122
08-06-2004, 04:01 AM
He was only a 1.5:1 dog on the flop. Don't you feel bad for berating him now?
ChessMan
08-06-2004, 06:49 PM
Thanks that tool is what wanted. Google kept getting me links to shareware and downloadable odds advisors so I appreciate you posting that link.

I'm surprised the two overcards are doing so well against TT.

If I had AQ in that situation, and I had two callers, I'd go for it. Maybe not heads up.
joker122
08-06-2004, 08:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised the two overcards are doing so well against TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

AQs also has a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw here...about the equivalent of 11.5 total outs.
ChessMan
08-06-2004, 10:45 PM
yep the gutshot is the reason I called it. Two overcards alone wasn't enough because I knew he had TT or JJ. The flush draw was too remote to consider.
housenuts
08-06-2004, 11:47 PM
the odds calculator at www.cardplayer.com (http://www.cardplayer.com) i find is much better