Bubble Improvement needed? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

DaffyDuck

08-05-2004, 09:46 PM

I'm trying to examine my bubble play. I play a lot of $10 SNgs at PokerStars and I go out a lot in 4th, but I win a lot also (my last 41 SNGs - 11 wins, 2 second, 5 3rd, and 8 4th). So, I'm pretty profitable.

I am very agressive in the bubble, and so I frequently get in the money as the big stack and win them. However, I also bubble out a lot. Obviously, the best outcome would be to get into the money more often but not reduce my frequency of wins. If I get less agressive on the bubble I would definitely make the money more, but maybe not win as much. This may even reduce my profitability so I need to be careful. This is the tradeoff I need to really examine.

However, hands like this are how I frequently go out on the bubble. I am very rarely shortstacked on the bubble so I don't bubble out much with desperation short-stack plays. Typically, I end up all-in and more often than not I have the best hand. Am I risking too much on plays like this, or is the +EV of getting the BIG stack on the bubble and being able to pummel my opponents worth so many firsts that it is worth the risk?

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Super Tight SNG with the exception of the villain in this hand. He raised all-in preflop like 12 times (it was his favorite move) and only showed down twice, once with JJ and once with KTs. He liked to limp a LOT preflop also, and played a lot of hands. He sucked out people a couple times to get his stack.

I was on the button with KTc and made what had been my standard raise. I don't know if I should have raised more but maybe with the Antes, etc. I should have. With KTs this was obviously a steal raise but just about every hand was being folded pre-flop to even min raises for like the last 40 -50 hands. I'm telling you this table was tight. This hand was #115 and we were still 4 handed. Most Poker Stars $10 SNGs only have about 100 or so hands total.

So, villain calls. This is interesting to me since he was all-in pre-flop so many times if he thought he had anything. He didn't call pre-flop raises much, but he did more than anyone else at the table. So, I don't even think he had AK or he would have gone back over me. I'm thinkin he has AQ, AJ or a small-med pair, maybe even 2 paint.

When the flop comes T99, 2 spades I really believe my TT with K kicker is best hand and bet 1K expecting him to fold. Now the pot was 1400 which was almost half my stack so I figured either 1K (2/3 pot) or all-in, since the pot would be almost half my stack. This is where I wonder if I should have bet more or less.

When he raises me over the top all-in I think for a while. I couldn't put him on a 9 or a T. I don't think he would have called pre-flop with A9 or AT but I suppose if I had bet more pre-flop I could be more sure

If he had an overpair like JJ, QQ I'm believe he would have raised me preflop. If he had KK, AA I'm thinking he either would have raised me preflop, or called me here to slowplay them.

I call because I am seriously convinced he has a PP, 77 or less. I figured it was a little bit of a gamble but I do play to win these things and I would double up and could really bully the table with the big stack. He shows QK bluffin with inside str8 draw , hits Q on turn and I'm out.

Should I have bet more preflop?
Should I have gone all-in on flop?
Should I have bet less or checked on the flop?
Did I make a dumb call since if I folded I still would have had more than the small stack?
OR.... Did I play this hand OK based on my read and just get sucked out?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

Hero (t3145)
SB (nobody2) (t3425)
BB (villain) (t5850)
UTG (nobody) (t1080)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG (nobody) folds, Hero raises to t600, SB (nobody2) folds, BB (villain) calls t400.

Flop: (t1075) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets t1000, villain raises to t5225, Hero calls t1520 (All-In).

Turn: (t8820) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t8820) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t8820

Results in white below: 
villain shows Kd Qs (two pair, queens and nines).
Hero shows Kc Tc (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: villain wins t8820.

async

08-05-2004, 10:26 PM

You had the whole tournament to build a read on the guy. Really, your call is good or bad depending on the read. In this case, you read his hand correctly and you got your money in when you had the best of it.

However, realize that this is the power of the semi-bluff and the big stack working against you. Realize that he was not bluffing - he was semi-bluffing. If you were holding a 9, he was only holding a 4-out. But if he puts you on a T, or a draw (QJ/KJ), then he has you beat already and there's a good chance you'll fold up to a big re-raise. And if his assessment is right, and you call all-in, he's at worst only about a 42% underdog with 10 outs. And he's the big stack - he can absolutely afford to take the risk. HE is not at risk from a marginal play... and really, my experience is that a *lot* of players will fold in your position in SnGs, with anything less than the probable nuts (in this case, anything other than a 9). When you add the premium for probably folds, I think he's probably making a very +EV move.

That said, you had the better hand, and if you'd won, you'd be a favorite for first. If you fold, you're fighting for 3rd. So I think you both made the right plays here.

I'm not sure about the preflop raise - simply because I'm not sure if it pays to confront the BB and end up in a 50/50 sort of situation with T600+ committed when you have a small stack with T1000 who's about to post 30% of his stack as blinds. Once you made the raise, I don't see how you could have played it differently; and I don't think he made a mistake either, per se. So yes, this might be a spot where instead of aggressing (which would normally seem to be the right thing to do given a tight table and a fairly good 4-handed hand), to fold and wait for stronger hands or for someone to confront and take out the small stack. (or for him to double through and indicate you may need to bolster your own position to weather the storm)