Final Table 3 Handed

[cfpesq]

I would appreciate feedback on a play a friend of mine made in a no limit hold em cash tourny. With 3 players left, the blinds were 800/1600 and the stack sizes were 15,000/30,000/18,000. My friend was BB w/ 30,000 and held AJ offsuit. The button, a relatively new player to the game, made it 3200. SB folded and my friend, BB, went all in. Button held 88, called and won the hand. My friend believes he played the hand perfectly since he was the chip leader and could afford to take a chance to knock out the small stake, plus he felt Button might fold. I felt he could have called the raise which would provide him more information about the hand and his opponent. Plus, he wouldn't risk his chip status on the luck of the flop. The Button took some time to decide on calling, but he must have known that barring a higher pair, he was statisically ahead in the hand.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

[GoldenHorde]

There was 5600 in the pot already, the stacks are short compared to the blinds, and he is only facing a mini-raise I think I would push there almost every time.

[fnord_too]

I like calling here. I certainly don't fold, but I don't like overbetting the pot. I probably push on the flop if I hit otherwise go into check fold mode. The reason I take this line is because I think there is a good chance teh button will feel comitted to this handbut for 3.25 to 1 I certainly want to see a flop. I really don't want to trade places with the short stack, which I will do if I double him up. I would rather keep my big stack in tact and apply pressure when I can be first in with a bet or raise.

Having said that, there is some merit to pushing. Small stacks will take a stand with planty of hands you are ahead of, and there is a chance he will fold for all his chips. The mini raise is kind of curious with the big stack in the big blind, which would push me to calling if this was an unusual raise for the button.

[SossMan]

3 handed, AJ is a monster. I would push here almost every time, too.

[cfpesq]

I agree it is a strong hand, but with the chip lead, do you think the risk of getting into a statistically close confrontation that could make you go from chip leader to small stack is worth the reward?

[fnurt]

The pressure is all on the other guy. Does he want to play for all his chips, knowing it's a coinflip at best?

If you're not going to use your big stack to put pressure on your opponents and force them to make tough decisions, then you might as well not have one.

[dogmeat]

The raise is a small one, just 1600. With this in mind, I put the raiser on a small hand (tiny pair, a-small, k-small) I think I would prefer to call the 1600 and see the flop, then check if I hit it and anticipate the button putting in a good bet and trapping him there. First place is worth half the cash, no? Why give it up to try winning T5600?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[GoldenHorde]

Because T5600 is almost 1/10th the chips in play and even with the call from the medium pair hes 50/50 to go heads up with a 3-1 chip advantage and if he loses hes still got 12k and is very alive.

[tripdad]

i would call the bet, then...

Flop: bet around half his stack no matter the cards. this puts all his chips at risk, and he'll need to really like his hand to go ahead and push. if that is the case, you can dump and save T7000.

this turns the tables on the 88, AJ matchup. now YOU are a slight favorite, because more than half the time, overcards will flop and you'll take it down.

cheers!

[cfpesq]

I like your approach...in this case it wouldn't have worked well because he flopped an 8. Normally if at least 2 overcards flop, 88 would have a hard time calling half his stack.

Thanks for all the responses - they are much appreciated.

[tripdad]

it would have worked to perfection, saving your friend T7000 or so. (unless he flopped a J or A of course)

cheers!

[donny5k]

What if the other guy has KQo?? I think a push is correct every time.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree it is a strong hand, but with the chip lead, do you think the risk of getting into a statistically close confrontation that could make you go from chip leader to small stack is worth the reward?

[/ QUOTE ]

The move is mostly folding equity, but not as much as you may think. There are probably a good number of players that would call you with any ace here.
Either way, this guy needs to shwagger that big stack around a little. Force the others to play for all their chips...make them fold you their blinds.

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
What if the other guy has KQo?? I think a push is correct every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

it makes no difference what he has. if you play it the way i suggest, the worst case scenario is that you lose around 11K. if you push, you risk 18K. the best and middle case scenario is the same no matter how you play it. i simply propose that you risk a bit less to achieve the same goal. if someone can give me a good reason why pushing is better, i'm all ears. "AJ is a monster" is not good enough.

cheers!

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if the other guy has KQo?? I think a push is correct every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

it makes no difference what he has. if you play it the way i suggest, the worst case scenario is that you lose around 11K. if you push, you risk 18K. the best and middle case scenario is the same no matter how you play it. i simply propose that you risk a bit less to achieve the same goal. if someone can give me a good reason why pushing is better, i'm all ears. "AJ is a monster" is not good enough.

cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]

So the proposal on the table is to call the 3200 and auto-bet 5900 (half his remaining stack) on the flop. The assumption is that if he pairs either of his overcards, he will push and you will fold. If he doesn't pair, he will fold and you win.

Villain will flop a pair about 1/3 of the time. When he does, you end up -8100. The other 2/3 of the time, you end up +3200. In other words, there is a negative expectation.

Now you might flop a set, in which case you win regardless, so that should help your EV a bit. But I still think you're going to do much, much better to push preflop, and get junky overcards like K9 and QT to lay down.

[tripdad]

if you think he is on a flat out steal, pushing is definitely the better play. i didn't realize we were making that assumption.

cheers!

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
if you think he is on a flat out steal, pushing is definitely the better play. i didn't realize we were making that assumption.


[/ QUOTE ]

Raising with QT or KJ is hardly a "flat-out steal" 3 handed. It may well be the best hand.

The proposed solution also seems to ignore the times that you catch, but he catches better. As well as the times that you both miss, but your overcards are better and he pushes you off the hand.

I would push here pretty much every time unless this player was so transparent that I knew that a min-raise meant a monster...

[cfpesq]

I just don't know if I buy the idea of risking half my stack insteading calling 1600 which represents a bit more than 5% of 30,000 chips. Notwithstanding putting the button on a bluff, why risk so much on a coin toss?

[tripdad]

and your proposed solution ignores the times he has AA, KK, QQ, and AK...not to mention all the PP's from dueces on up you are currently behind. not to mention KQ or the likes which will win against AJ 2 out of 5 times. and, if you both miss, i have a hard time believing you will face the all-in on a pure bluff from a shorter stack. and, sometimes both will hit, and you will hit better.

i'm fairly certain when villain has 88 and the flop presents K 10 4, and you fire at him half his stack, you will win the pot without having to hit your A or J, whereas if you push, you WILL lose more than half the time. i'm certain if someone took the time to do the math, smooth calling then firing out a bet on the flop will be +EV versus pushing against a wider range of hands.

cheers!

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
if you both miss, i have a hard time believing you will face the all-in on a pure bluff from a shorter stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Really? If I see an all-undercard flop in this situation as the shorter stack, I push every single time.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't know if I buy the idea of risking half my stack insteading calling 1600 which represents a bit more than 5% of 30,000 chips. Notwithstanding putting the button on a bluff, why risk so much on a coin toss?

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know it is a coin toss (without the benefit of hindsight I mean)? Don't you think he would make this raise with plenty of worse aces? Don't you think a smaller pair would lay down preflop, thus netting you a number of chips when you are technically behind?

I also completely reject the idea that a pair will always lay down to 2 overcards 3 handed. If you knew this player would lay down to a bet every time he missed (and miss is being broadly defined here, KT4 isn't really a "miss" for 88 if the opponent holds AJ), then I like your play better, but at least in my experience, plenty of players would play back over an non-all-in bet on a flop with a couple overcards, especially if they knew their opponent might be betting any flop. Maybe if there's an ace he lays down. Of course, if there's an ace, you don't *want* him to lay down.

Here's a question: Would you like the preflop push better with AK?

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you both miss, i have a hard time believing you will face the all-in on a pure bluff from a shorter stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Really? If I see an all-undercard flop in this situation as the shorter stack, I push every single time.

[/ QUOTE ]

o.k. you have 88 from the CO, and raise. the big stack in the SB calls your bet.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

big stack leads out with a bet equal to 1/2 your stack.

you come over the top? i'm impressed.

cheers!

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]

o.k. you have 88 from the CO, and raise. the big stack in the SB calls your bet.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

big stack leads out with a bet equal to 1/2 your stack.

you come over the top? i'm impressed.


[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, I'm not raising the minimum like in the original post. Especially short-handed, I'm calling a min-raise with tons of hands; I assume my opponent is too, so I can't put someone on a hand at all.

That aside, it quite honestly depends on what I think of the big stack. If he has been calling raises and then firing on the flop alot, I could easily see pushing here. If he's been rarely calling raises and check-folding alot of flops, then I can lay it down.

The importance of reading players' styles, while always important, is much more so in short handed, poker, especially if the blinds are somewhat high. Playing a predictable style when 3-handed and with ~20-30x the BB is probably going to get you creamed. If the BB had been throwing away lots of hands, but then suddenly gets aggressive 3 or 4 hands in a row, he's probably going to get alot of my chips before I catch on. If he's just constantly being aggressive or constantly folding when he misses, I'm going to be able to exploit that pretty quick.

Back to the original hand. If I felt like I had a good read of the opponent, and *especially* if I thought that he was playing too tight for how shorthanded we are, I like your line (I'd like it better with a worse ace, small pairs, or marginal broadway cards; AJ is really a very good hand here). If I'm playing against an aggressive player, especially one that is tricky, I'm pushing preflop here every time, because I think I have the best hand now, and I don't want to be outplayed on the flop.

We could (and, in the actuall game, probably should) go another level and think about what *he* thinks about *us*. If he sees us as overaggressive, I push here, since he could easily call with worse aces or broadway cards, and furthermore, he probably *will* come over the top of my bet with a pocket pair if I miss (of course, that also means that I'll probably bust him if I hit, but I'll miss more than I hit). If he thinks I am conservative, I like your line alot, since he will respect the flop bet and fold unless he hits too.

Wow, that's a lot of words to say "it depends"... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[tripdad]

i totally agree that how you play this is read dependant. against an unknown (original poster did not describe players), i like my line better. it cannot be picked up on because it is used so very rarely. you must be deep stacked to do it, and you must be against a much smaller stack. and it must be heads up. i'm lucky if i get into this situation once per tourney.

cheers!

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
i totally agree that how you play this is read dependant. against an unknown (original poster did not describe players), i like my line better. it cannot be picked up on because it is used so very rarely.
cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, calling a preflop bet and then betting out on any flop? I do that quite alot if I suspect a steal, but I don't have much either, actually. Tends to be cheaper and (as you have pointed out, less risky) than a resteal attempt. If I feel pretty good about actually having the best hand (as I would with AJ here), I'd be more prone to re-riase.

[cferejohn]

I thought this was an interesting thread, but it got swamped by the WCOOP blathering. Thought I'd give it a bump...
Chris