Question #5 - Vegas in 3 Days!

Many people have said that expecting to win on a short 4-day trip to Vegas is a long shot – even with excellent play.


With Blackjack, Poker or whatever… I realize the “hills-and-valleys” aspect of gambling due to SD (standard deviation).


So my question is… isn’t it just as likely to catch the upside of the SD as it is the downside?


If not… can I only expect to win at Hold’em if I decide to make it a long-term living?


That said… can anyone… if you had to… in terms of percentage… tell me what my chances are of coming out ahead at a $3-$6 or $4-$8 game for a 4-day trip? ie: 50-50


Also… assuming intelligent, tight-aggressive play for approx 6-8 hours a day… what’s the absolute most I can expect to win or expect to lose?


That way, I’ll know when to quit while I’m ahead… OR, on the flip-side, I’ll have an idea of when I’m at the bottom end of the SD.


Thank you.


Kindly,


Ezinestein

I didn't say winning was a long shot exactly, just that you can't expect it. I'd put your chances at winning over that kind of play period as about 50-50, but it's a rough estimate.


The absolute most you could win or lose... if you got incredibly unlucky and lost every pot you were involved in in the whole 30 hours or so you're going to play for, you *might* lose $800 playing 4/8... that's pretty worst-case though. Depending on the texture of the game, you could win more than that... maybe $1,200 or so. I would call it a freak event if you won or lost more than $400, though.


btw, note that "quitting while ahead" doesn't make any sense. It's a gamblers fallacy equal to the old "well, the roulette wheel's come up red eight times in a row now... has to be black this time".


Disclaimer: The above are all very rough and ready estimates based on nothing other than my own intuition.


Chris

Of course you can hit a peak but don't expect it. Hard to put a % on it--I have never played with you. I went on a 3 day trip to Vegas in June and got crushed. And I win overall. I couldn't hit a thing and every good hand I got was cracked. I got AKs 18 times and only flopped a pair one time (won 1/2 a pot). I was deperate and showed someone AA with a board of 99Jx, he had a J and still called, hitting a J on the river. It can happen. The best you can do is prepare to go and play well, keep your head in the game and hope the cards come your way. Good luck.


KJS