couple of hands for review - part 1

[chezlaw]

Paradise - $5/$10 Hold'em - 5 max

I open raise from CO with black queens, poor SB calls, BB calls.

FLOP: A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet, SB folds BB calls.

I have seen just enough of the BB to believe he folds with nothing and raises with the flush draw. His call means 1 pair or better, possibly KQ?

TURN T/images/graemlins/club.gif

check, check

I'm thinking that he has me beat about half the time here (as his most likely pair is aces, with 6's being unlikely) and a check-raise would be unwelcome as I have 6 outs.

RIVER 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

He checks, I bet for value

[Kakafoni]

I would bet the turn, because I think it is a dangerous spot to give a free card. He could have anything, gutshot draw (KT, QT, KQ), 2nd button (JT, QJ, KJ, J9), maybe even 3rd button?.
Anyway, I don't know if he'll call a turn bet with a gutshot (?), but if he's holding a jack he'll probably call u down, right? and maybe even if he's got 3rd button...
(I'm not counting a flopped fourflush because of your observation that he'd probably raise in that spot).

So, in my opinion, I'd rather bet the turn and call him down if he checkraises. If he calls the turn bet I'd probably bet the river too.

If I would think the board is scary I rather bet the turn and go for a free showdown.

Just my opinion..

//Marcus /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[chezlaw]

Hi Marcus

I don't think he will call with a gutshot except KQ. Trusting my read he has:

Ax (not AK) - 117 ways
KQ - 8 ways
JT - 9 ways
66 - 3 ways
TT - 3 ways

= 140 hand I'm behind.

and

KJ - 12 ways
QJ - 6 ways
J9 - 12 ways
J8 - 12 ways
76 - 12 ways
65 - 12 ways
99-77 - 18 ways
55-22 - 24 ways

= 108 ways I'm ahead

So I'm only ahead 44% of the time.

The big danger is that my read (or my reasoning) is way off. But even then, by checking I might win a bet on the river when he would have folded the turn - and the pot is small so I'm only risking a small disaster.

This time he had A5.