My overpair is checkraised. What now?

[SkippingGoat]

What play do you guys make here? UTG is fairly aggressive and plays a decent (but not fishy) number of pots. He hasn't show down many hands so it's hard for me to tell what kind of values he's playing.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 6 handed)

Button ($139.95)
SB ($49)
BB ($61.75)
UTG ($49)
MP ($80.70)
Hero ($89.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $1, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($9.50) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises to $30</font>

Notes: He checked fairly quickly on the flop but more strange was that his raise was instantaneous. Honestly, I don't even know how he typed it in and hit "raise" that fast.

Thoughts: Part of me was saying that this was a strange way to play a set. If he thought I had overcards, why blast me off them instead of letting me improve or bluff again? If he thought I had an overpair, why not just call and let me bet them again rather than revealing the strength of his hand?

On the other hand, check-raise bluffs aren't all that common at this level. I guess the hand I'm most worried about is 76s.

[PokerFink]

Thats a pretty strange play from a shortstacked player. Honestly, I don't have the foggiest idea. There are a bazillion things he can have. Blah, my mind feels like mush trying to come up with an answer to this one. Without any sort of read on this player, who knows.

[Ghazban]

I'd probably call; as a lot of preflop raising is by people with big unpaired cards (particularly in 6-handed), he could be making this play with anything from 88-QQ that you beat, KK which you push with or AA which beats you. With AA, I'd expect him to have reraised before the flop so that's probably out.

However, I think its more likely that he has a set than you're giving him credit for. If you raised preflop with 2 big spades and are semi-bluffing at the flop, he doesn't want to slowplay his trips. Its a very player dependent situation but, with the number of screwballs playing at this level, I'd call and if I'm beat oh well; rebuy and get those chips back.

[AA suited]

my read is that he has small overpair (say 99) and thinks you have top pair and are trying to buy the pot now.

he's afraid you have a good kicker and any overcard that falls means trouble to him. so he bets big to get you to fold or make it worth it for him to see it to the river.

am i close?

[AtlBrvs4Life]

I would raise him all-in here. I think you're ahead most of the time, and if you're not ahead, it is only costing you $30 more for a $80 pot.

[Dan Rutter]

If UTG is an aggresive player I do not think you have to worry about a hand like 76, or any of the pairs that would have made him a set. He most likely would have bet coming in, or raised you pre-flop. I would not put him on 76 either based on his position. I would think a high pocket pair QQ or AA. If he has been aggressive he may, have changed gears and just limped with these hands pre-flop. It is hard not to see him raising pre-flop though, after your bet. Especially with QQ. Did you see this player limp-in from UTG in the past, or was he/she always coming in for a raise? If the player is always raising when they come in, and then they limp, especially in early position and then call a bet it is pretty possible they are strong. If the player is a tricky one, he/she may have called your bet pre-flop, hoping you had overcards, and planning on putting a move on you if low cards flopped. That would be your check-raise bluff statement. I guess knowing if the opponent always comes in for a bet pre-flop would help me make a decision a little easier. This situation is difficult though.

[Wayfare]

I would either min-raise or just call and get the money in on the turn unless an ace fell. I say the play is consistent with overpair worse than yours, but may well yet go far. His stack really isn't deep enough at this point to worry about a set, unless you have a really good read on him too.

[richardn]

I agree with just about everyone else at this point...sounds like TT, 99, maybe even JJ. That being said I had the same thing happen to me last night with AA and the Villian hit his set holding pocket 8's.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I would either min-raise or just call and get the money in on the turn unless an ace fell.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain will have 14 left after the c/r. there's no way hero is getting away regardless of what hits. i would call, on the off chance villain has no pair and will not call but would push on the turn (possibly after making a pair).

[Wayfare]

Or call the min-raise and then call all-in on the turn. If you push now there is a *chance* he will realize his TT isn't good.

[bsiu5]

He probably doesn't have AA since no reraise preflop. probably has over pairs but under cowboys. thinks you might have AK or overs and doesn't want you to catch your card. Your in the hand no matter what, don't see you folding. Could call and induce an all-in bet on the turn from him or you move all-in on the turn. i think if you reraise him on the flop after he reraised you, he may think that you have pockets as well and would beat his PPs so he'd fold. if you call he may think you got overs and are hoping for them to show up and if another rag comes he may bet the pot again and then you got all his stack.

[1111]

My read is an over pair, but not bullets. I push and hope for a call with his 1010 or JJ. The only other possibility I see is him bluffing very hard with a flush draw with big spades, hoping to push you out and take a decent pot in the process. Either way, i'm either calling here or most likely reraising.

[gergery]

Limp call UTG from decent player should be pocket pair 22-77, suited connectors, or AT-A2x, maybe AA trapping. I’d think a flush draw or something like 98s, A6s, 87s, 65s (which you’re slightly behind to) would push in to try to get you out. While 76s, 77, 66, 22 where you are way behind to would be more likely to make the pot bet to keep you. It’s possible he puts you on AK if you’ve been frisky and is bluffing you, but that’s unlikely.

I’d say you are not a favorite most of the time, but are getting reasonable odds. So it depends on how often he’s on the flushdraw vs. set vs. being a terrible player. With a read of 1) a good player 2) likely to play a flushdraw harder, likely it’s a somewhat close decision but I’d probably fold (but maybe call w Kspades). This might be weak tho.

--Greg

Note; He likely checked “bet pot” since his raise to $30 was the size of the pot after you’d put money in.

[SkippingGoat]

I pushed and villain folded. In retrospect, I like the advice of bsiu5 and wayfare. That is, just calling and inducing a push by a lower pp on the turn rather than letting him get away from it.

I'm not one to put a tremendous amount of stock in how people "time" their bets (insta-bet vs. going into the tank first) but the quickness of the bet suggested to me that he wanted to look very strong, to me an indication that he was on a bluff. If I'm not mistaken, after you've acted in Party I don't think you can hit the "bet pot button". Personally, when I hit the "bet pot" button it's usually when I have something like top pair, mediocre kicker and want everyone to fold. Do other people see the "bet pot" button on party as an indication of the absense of a monster? Any other reliable timing tells in NL play? (I'm sure this has been discussed before so if anyone has any links to previous threads that would be great too.)