Hand from MIA Poster

[Festus22]

I've been in lurk mode for awhile now. Beats me why. Anyway:

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Everyone like the turn raise? I had him on either a slow-played set or 2P after the 3-bet. I'm either drawing to 2 outs or 8 and given that ragged board, I thought the set equally likely even though 2P is more likely mathematically. So I was thinking I had basically 5 outs and was getting 10.5 - 1. Of course then the river call getting 12.5 - 1 seemed mandatory. Was I thinking straight?

[afk]

I like the way you played it, and probably would have played it the same way.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]


Everyone like the turn raise? I had him on either a slow-played set or 2P after the 3-bet. I'm either drawing to 2 outs or 8 and given that ragged board, I thought the set equally likely even though 2P is more likely mathematically. So I was thinking I had basically 5 outs and was getting 10.5 - 1. Of course then the river call getting 12.5 - 1 seemed mandatory. Was I thinking straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

5 outs?

--Zetack

[chief444]

You either have 2 outs against a set or 8 outs against two pair. So I guess if you average it out somewhere around 5 sounds right. Is that where you got the 5 outs?

Either way you need to call this down since you also have a reasonable chance of having the best hand. I do like the turn raise as well. Nice hand.

[Festus22]

I had 2 outs against a set and 8 against 2P (2 kings and the board pairing either of the non-2P cards). The probability of being against 2P is higher than that of a set so based purely on the odds, I would have had closer to 8 outs. But since the board was so ratty, I gave the set a higher than "normal" liklihood and as such, I just split the difference and guessed I had the equivilent of 5 outs.

Ed's book has been quite helpful in providing insight on estimating outs since some may be tainted while others may be based on the probability of an opponents range of possible holdings.

[MortalNuts]

Hi Festus --

I've been out of action for a while myself, so maybe my poker skills are rusty, but I'm not such a fan of the turn raise.

After UTG fails to raise the flop, my default is to put him on something like AJ/AK/JJ/TT/99 (and not AQ/KK/AA), or QQ that's doing the double-secret super slowplay. I agree with you that SB's most likely holdings are 2-pair or a set, though of course there's a chance of something random.

So what does this mean? If UTG has AK, AJ, etc., he's drawing to no more than 3 outs, so you're rooting for him to call bets on the turn in this not-ginormous pot. Of course you'd love it if he'll call two with those holdings (or say TT), but many players will dump those holdings when faced with this turn action (bet from a player who's suddenly come alive, plus a raise). Plus if UTG calls one bet here with TT or AJ, he's often going to call one more on the river unimproved, because hey, he'll be getting like 12.5:1. Finally, a raise from you will surely trigger a 3-bet from SB if he holds a set, and likely if he holds 2-pair as well, which of course you have to call.

Thus, if you just call the turn, I think you induce overcalls from UTG in cases where he's getting insufficient odds to draw out on you if you're ahead. You get more money on the river. You avoid getting 3-bet by a better hand. In summary, I think you make more when ahead and lose less when behind.

Things that would make me more fond of the raise: a bigger pot (so that you actually want to drive UTG out if he has like AJ). An SB that would be very very loathe to 3-bet here. An UTG player that for some reason you think is very likely to call two cold here with hands you are trouncing -- I'd argue that most players will coldcall here with specifically JJ, but not AJ -- or maybe an UTG player that isn't going to call even one bet with a hand that you beat. But here, I think just calling is best.

just my 2c.

cheers,

mn

[Festus22]

FWIW, SB shows 3-3 for the turned set. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Just another bad beat post in disguise. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Seriously, I thought at the time this hand was pretty routine but it's funny when you start to absorb new material (i.e. SSHE) and think in new ways, you begin to question just about everything.

Thanks for the responses.