drawing for top pair

[Meatmaw]

Stars SNG, blinds still 10/20, 4 see the flop. Guy keeps leading in with bets of 60 on flop and turn. Was it correct to draw for the pair when I have AJo and the board was: 3 7 9 5 (rainbow)

and I detect players are all playing weakly (i.e. I strongly think any J or A would give me best hand)?

6 outs is about 24% chance to draw best hand on turn/river right? It's about break even plus whatever I can sucker them for on the river if I get it, right?

Is it acceptable or worth it to draw?

Thanks.

[Peter Harris]

depends whether your chips are worth risking here or saving till a better chance to exploit the bettor.

Pete Harris

[nuclear500]

I'd say probably not worth it. AJ is strong enough to raise preflop with position, but its too weak if the board totally misses you, especially with 4 callers to the flop. AJ is an easy lay down for me, many better places to play it.

[ansky451]

It isnt 25% to hit your pair on the turn. Its 25% on the flop, to hit it by the river, but on the turn your are a measly 12%. You also must consider you are 0% against a set, and also against 2 pair on the turn. What may make this play profitbale, is also if you decide to bluff any big card on the river whether its your jack/ace or not IMO.

[Phill S]

my own personal opinion on drawing on overcards is that its usually more a trap than a true draw.

example.

you have AK
your opponant has AT, or KT for arguments

flop comes 2,7,T

now your outs number just three. so the odds are already slim, and if you do hit you probably wont get action (especially if you need the ace to their KT).

however, the flip side of this is what if you make your pair, but your opponant makes two pair. youve drawn and hit, but now you ahve to put it down, how much will it cost you.

and thats assuming were heads up in a hand. if your facing two opponants one with KT and one with AT in the above example, your more than drawing dead.

there are times when overcards can play, but more often than not its as a bluff, not when you think your opponant has a made hand. i often bet into a raggety flop with AK, because i know that with my preflop raise i can represent something big, but if im bet into, i rarely bluff back at them with the same hand.

so like all poker questions, you never get a right answer, but i think fold is the most right answer of all when it comes to overcards.

Phill

[Cleveland Guy]

Drawing for "naked" over cards into a 4 person pot is very dangerous.

If the pot wasn't raised much or anything at all, your SB and BB can have just about anything. Including 2 pair, or a straight (6,8 for example).

I only like to draw for the top pair when it's 2-3 people make in the pot and

1. I think my high cards might already be good, so I can win the pot with or withot hitting top pair

2. My high cards have other "value" - they are suited and I have a good flush draw, or I have a straight draw (even inside)