OESD and flush draw on the flop... all in to you

[Muisyle]

Not my hand... but I'm wondering how people here would play this.

Mazmoney was dealt: http://www.rit.edu/~ajp2113/Poker/Qh.gif http://www.rit.edu/~ajp2113/Poker/6h.gif
MazMoney posts small blind of $0.25, Coattails posts big blind of $0.50, SmellTheGlove raises to $2, Quick7 calls $2, Elysium folds, ramjam folds, not4u folds, voltron folds, MazMoney calls $1.75, Coattails folds.

Flop:http://www.rit.edu/~ajp2113/Poker/7h.gif http://www.rit.edu/~ajp2113/Poker/4s.gif http://www.rit.edu/~ajp2113/Poker/5h.gif
MazMoney checks, SmellTheGlove bets $6.50, Quick7 raises to $16.50, and is all in, MazMoney calls $16.50, SmellTheGlove raises to $103.15, and is all in, MazMoney...

Obviously the preflop call is bad with Q6. But you have a TON of outs on this flop...

[Muisyle]

Well no one seems interested... so I'll just tell you what happened.

He calls.

Quick7 shows 55 for the flopped set
Smelltheglove shows KK for the overpair.

Turn is a blank.

River is a king!

Of hearts!

And mazmoney takes down the pot with the flush.

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 4s 7h 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kd 37 4.10 848 93.91 18 1.99 0.048
Qh 6h 355 39.31 530 58.69 18 1.99 0.400
5s 5d 493 54.60 392 43.41 18 1.99 0.553

And just the heads up (the sidepot is way bigger than the main pot)

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s 7h 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kd 433 43.74 539 54.44 18 1.82 0.446
Qh 6h 539 54.44 433 43.74 18 1.82 0.554

So he's actually a decent sized favorite here. Not that he knows what the other guy is holding.

[durron597]

The amount of money in your stack is very important here. You've already called $16.50, so it's $86.65 back to you in the sidepot, with $49.50 dead money in the main pot. In addition to a shot at the $86.65, you are also buying a chance to win the main pot, too; obviously, if you have less money behind, you should call since the pot odds are better.

[Muisyle]

The stacks were roughly

Quick: $20
Maz: $80
Smell: $100

So Maz is calling an extra $60 to win $120

With 15 outs (if I counted right) and 31 cards left in the deck it looks like he's getting just about the right odds.

[bunky9590]

See why I love Full Tilt????

[Snoogins47]

So roughly, it's what, about 3:2 for the pot odds, with the added bonus of possibly taking the big portion of the pot and losing the small... hmm. (Who knows, 3:2 was just the quick estimate I gathered on first read)

I think this is a tough call, but not necessarily a bad one. I definitely put SmellTheGlove on an overpair. I figured Quick7 to be on a set (most likely), maybe 68 (less likely), and possibly a nut flush draw + some overs (very unlikely) The straight would make sense (though not too much preflop) as we all know how deathly afraid people are of giving anything less than the most expensive card possible when they flop a made hand on a two-tone board. Set goes along these lines too. I can't figure him drawing to the nut flush very often, but you never know.

If it were me, and I had that read on STG (on the overpair) I just might call. Figuring my odds of beating Quick7 are much worse than beating STG... but by the same token, the contest with STG is a much bigger portion of the cash..

I think a strong case could be made for either folding or calling. I think I'd lean toward folding it, though it's hard to say for sure, especially when you're in the heat of battle. If I were holding Ah 6h, I probably would've leaned toward calling. (This is assuming that I had the other guy covered, checks wise. If I only had like 40 or so in front of me, I'd probably just shove it all in there and call it good.)

At any rate I'd say this is a very borderline situation.

Let's hear it for moving in for almost 3x the pot with an overpair on a coordinated board to a raise and a call btw.