A hand my sister played

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Here's a hand my little sister played.

UB .01/.02 .01/.01 blinds

Entire table limps. SB raises. Hero calls in the BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Entire table calls. 10 players to the flop for 20 SB.

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB bets. Hero doesn't know whether to call or raise.

[Shargaas]

I would raise, hoping to knock a few people out.

If SB (or anyone else) 3-bets, I would call, with the top pair, back-door flush and str8 possibilities and see what the turn brings.

[SteveY]

Raise! Any overcard that you potentially fold by forcing them to call 2cold improves your chances of winning.

[sublime]

Raise

TP, 1 overcard (weak I know) and a backdoor flush.

The flop is ragged as hell, calling doesnt do a damn thing to improve our chances of winning.

[bisonbison]

pot is huge. 2 bets mean nothing. watch flop action. if flop action and turn card favorable, raise the turn.

Course, I've been wrong before.

[Brain]

Raise that stuff b/c the pot is huge and hopefully you can get some (or all 8!) players to drop out.

[Nottom]

That bison guy is smart.

[Brian]

Call the Flop. Raising isn't going to do much for you. It's not for value, because I'd be very surprised if you are anywhere near the favorite to win the hand. It's not going to knock anyone with overcards out. Look at the action behind you, and look at the Turn card, then act accordingly.

-Brian

[sublime]

It's not for value, because I'd be very surprised if you are anywhere near the favorite to win the hand.

I would be surprised if he isnt at least one of the favorites at this point.

[Nate tha' Great]

Raise. Even if you can't eliminate other players, you have a lot of equity against this many opponents.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=431341
pokenum -h 9d 8d - ac kc - jc ts - 6h 6s - as 5h - kd js - ah 9s - 8c 7c - qh 4c - 6d 5s -- 8s 5d 2c
Holdem Hi: 406 enumerated boards containing 8s 2c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 8d 106 26.11 290 71.43 10 2.46 0.273
Ac Kc 49 12.07 357 87.93 0 0.00 0.121
Ts Jc 45 11.08 361 88.92 0 0.00 0.111
6s 6h 14 3.45 373 91.87 19 4.68 0.058
As 5h 30 7.39 373 91.87 3 0.74 0.078
Js Kd 22 5.42 384 94.58 0 0.00 0.054
9s Ah 2 0.49 401 98.77 3 0.74 0.009
8c 7c 56 13.79 343 84.48 7 1.72 0.147
4c Qh 50 12.32 356 87.68 0 0.00 0.123
5s 6d 0 0.00 384 94.58 22 5.42 0.027

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=431348
pokenum -h 9d 8d - jc jh - js ts - 6h 6s - as 5h - kd qs - ah 9s - 8c 7c - qh 4c - 6d 5s -- 8s 5d 2c
Holdem Hi: 406 enumerated boards containing 8s 2c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 8d 70 17.24 329 81.03 7 1.72 0.181
Jc Jh 87 21.43 319 78.57 0 0.00 0.214
Js Ts 22 5.42 384 94.58 0 0.00 0.054
6s 6h 11 2.71 378 93.10 17 4.19 0.048
As 5h 44 10.84 359 88.42 3 0.74 0.112
Qs Kd 58 14.29 348 85.71 0 0.00 0.143
9s Ah 3 0.74 400 98.52 3 0.74 0.011
8c 7c 67 16.50 335 82.51 4 0.99 0.170
4c Qh 17 4.19 389 95.81 0 0.00 0.042
5s 6d 0 0.00 386 95.07 20 4.93 0.025

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Sure my sister's got equity here, but the pot is already huge. Shouldn't the main focus switch from the biggest +EV move to doing your best to win that pot?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
calling doesnt do a damn thing to improve our chances of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

[blackaces13]

Good hand to post. I agree with Bison.

[sublime]

I disagree.

Ok

I still think we are either the favorite or near favorite to win this hand and should raise for value and to cause the field to call two.

[sublime]

Shouldn't the main focus switch from the biggest +EV move to doing your best to win that pot?

How is calling doing your best to win that pot?

[Brian]

Hi sublime,

Have you heard of the horse race concept before? I can't remember which S&M book it's in (I think it's in Getting the Best of It). It explains how it's possible to be the favorite at the moment, but actually the underdog to win the hand. With 9 opponents in the hand, virtually any card on the Turn can beat our Hero, if he's not already beaten by a better kicker or overpair.

This is not a good Flop for 98s 10-way. You're going to at least see the Turn card, and you may even see the showdown depending on the action, but I wouldn't get reckless and pot commit yourself with a raise on the Flop.

-Brian

[Tosh]

Reminds me of the 99 '2 overpair hands' in SSHE.

[radek2166]

Raise it. two reasons.

Number 1. She wants to get as many people out as she can at this point.

Number 2. It gives Her a good indication of where she stands in this hand. Whos willing to cold call 2 bets?

Unfortunetly at these stakes their are going to be alot of callers. The person who limped in utg with 67o. the lone Axo. The fool playing Kxs etc.

Hows that sound ?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

forcing the field to call 2 small bets on the flop isn't going to fold anybody at these levels. I'd much rather wait till the turn to raise and force them to call 2 big bets.

[hoc]

this is my first post for limit and i have only been playing it for two days.i have played a lot of 2/4 nl so heres my two cents. i hope you all pick this to pieces to show me where im going wrong.

ok first up her connected cards have huge implied odds for a st8, but as they arent suited its not going to be a great money earner.

the type of flop id be looking to raise with is j75 or something like this. so i am in favour of just in favour of calling and seeing what happens, should she be looking for an 8 or a back door flush draw, mainly because her kicker is poor and if someone else is playing properly there kicker will be a 10 or j more often than a 7 or low.

as i sy i hope this gets taken to the cleaners because im getting my ass whooped and probably need to change of line. the worst the better, be harsh.

[Peter Harris]

and doing it on the flop swells the pot making it "correct" for people to call 2BB on the turn.

Although with 10BB in PF, pot's likely to keep them in till the bitter end anyway.

Hope she won!

Pete Harris

[Trix]

I would call.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't the main focus switch from the biggest +EV move to doing your best to win that pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. I think you mean, "Isn't doing your best to win that pot the biggest +EV move?" Our focus should always be on making the biggest +EV move.

(For what it's worth, I call and wait for the turn card to resolve things a bit.)

[sfer]

I'm with Peter.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Number 2. It gives Her a good indication of where she stands in this hand. Whos willing to cold call 2 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so Sis Daddy Cool raises and gets called in 6 spots because it costs, like, $0.02 to call. Where does she stand?

[sublime]

I change my mind
wait till the turn

I dont think raising the flop is a mistake, just not the best MOP.

[bunky9590]

If your little sister learnes anything , tell her to learn to raise that.

She cute or what?

[radek2166]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so Sis Daddy Cool raises and gets called in 6 spots because it costs, like, $0.02 to call. Where does she stand?

[/ QUOTE ]

to which I said
[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunetly at these stakes their are going to be alot of callers. The person who limped in utg with 67o. the lone Axo. The fool playing Kxs etc.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think poker at these limits is kinda like the lottery no real skill involved. You get two cards. 9 other players at the table get 2 cards. Then 5 random cards are layed out. In most games very few I.E. less than 1% actually understand the value of a C/R and when to do it or, any other concept discused in the books we read.

What they do understand is I got 27o i have a chance to win.


So IMHO. It really does not matter at these limits.

[WiredPear]

It's funny, I just finished reading that section. I went back and forth on the raise here or raise on the turn.

There are some differences here: the pot is much larger here, and there are straight draws with this example, and the field is huge.

This led to a question I wondered. At what point does the hugeness of the pot make you want to protect your hand even though your pot equity edge is small?

I'm not sure, but because of the oddness of this pot (huge field and huge pot) a raise now might be better because it increases your chances to win. You might lose some bets for sure. But because the pot is so large, it seems instinctively like a good move. But it's tricky.

[sfer]

Sorry, I didn't really understand what you were getting at so I'll give you my thoughts. Everyone is calling a flop raise correctly. I don't think raising the flop will give you any idea about how likely your hand is best. I think it's better to see the flop action, and if it looks favorable, raise the turn assuming a scary card doesn't fall. The pot will be smaller relative to the bet size and there will only be one card to come, increasing the chances that you can induce folds and decreasing the chances of being outdrawn. This is identical to what Bison wrote.

EDITED

[radek2166]

What I am saying is this.

In such low limits their are no skills involved. A proper placed raise or check raise. Really does not do anything.
Low limit hold'em is full of people that watch WPT see one of the players push all in on the button with 72o everyone fold to him and, they think thats how poker is played. With no understanding of why it worked.

Its a crap shot at these levels. Thats what I am saying. I think that what ever she did was right.

[MKR]

[ QUOTE ]
think poker at these limits is kinda like the lottery no real skill involved. You get two cards. 9 other players at the table get 2 cards. Then 5 random cards are layed out. In most games very few I.E. less than 1% actually understand the value of a C/R and when to do it or, any other concept discused in the books we read.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite a lottery. You can exercise some skill: you choose to make moves that raise your EV, and exploit opponent's -EV moves.

Since the hands tend to be multiway, the winner will usually have to show the best hand and fancy play is not much good to you here.

MKR

[sfer]

So then why raise the flop?

[radek2166]

[ QUOTE ]
So then why raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

To get the guy out who has read HPFAP?

[Joe Tall]

I would raise. This is unlike AQ on a Q82 board.

The flop is fairly favorable for you hand, if you can get some to fold, raise, if they call, so be it, you have plenty of equity with this flop.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you heard of the horse race concept before? I can't remember which S&M book it's in

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its in seven card stud for advanced players.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
She cute or what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, she's my sister.

[StellarWind]

I raise the flop.

Someone who should know better said this is not a value bet. That's ridiculous. I often have the best hand and the best draw on this rag board. Yes, I will usually lose against nine opponents, but I will win much more often than 1/(number of callers+1). It's not just whether I am ahead right now, but also that I am one of the front runners in the race to make a hand big enough to beat a big field.

My reason for not waiting until the turn is my crystal ball is broken. I don't have any idea how the flop will play out, what the turn card will be, whether SB will feel like leading into a giant field again, or anything else. All I know is I am losing an awful lot of EV right now by not raising when I have a big edge against people who will call with anything.

Turn raisers: Suppose your dreams come true. You call and six more people just call. Why do you want to raise SB's turn bet? Isn't it basically true that SB will bet when he has made a big pair and check when he has overcards? Unless the turn hits your hand, isn't raising the turn going to be a mistake?

[bakku]

She cute or what?

I think she'll be legal in only a few years, Gregg.

[bisonbison]

She cute or what?

Dude, she's my sister.

I'm glad for once I wasn't that guy.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think she'll be legal in only a few years, Gregg.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't fight love.

[Brian]

How old are she and you, just out of curiosity. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

-Brian

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, she's my sister.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I get it. Protective brother vibe. I dig it.

At least you could keep tabs on her and know she's with a nice guy. (Ahem. cough cough)

Just kidding buddy. And you know it.

The wife is test driving a new car tonight. Should wrap up the deal tomorrow.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I'm 20 and my sister is 15, you sick sickos.

[Brian]

Hi Stellar,

[ QUOTE ]
Someone who should know better said this is not a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right, and I was wrong. I did not realize how much equity this hand had even against 9 opponents, even versus an overpair. I thought that with every potential overcard being out there, as well as any card on the board pairing likely leaving you drawing thin, that this was a horse race situation. It's not.

That being said, I stand by calling the Flop. I would rather see how the others react to the Flop and formulate a plan to get rid of them on the Turn. Or, if I don't like the Turn card, simply fold.

-Brian

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
The wife is test driving a new car tonight. Should wrap up the deal tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Paid for by poker earnings?

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The wife is test driving a new car tonight. Should wrap up the deal tomorrow.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Paid for by poker earnings?




[/ QUOTE ]

Not entirely. But a good down payment.
Its a 2003 BMW 325is. She loves it.

[sfer]

And a photo of your sister would be nice, too.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I don't remember the hand quite that much.

But the heroine in this hand did raise, and like, 1 person folded. The original raiser 3-betted, heroine caps, hoping to force the field to call 2 cold again, but they call anyways.

Turn was a diamond giving heroine a flush draw. SB bets. She raises again. Calls again. SB just calls.

River she still has top pair, but comes in third to AA and some crappy rivered 2 pair.

[crockett]

I guess this is a little late since the results have been posted but I'll add my thoughts.

Your in a horrible spot.

I play a lot of .5/.10 and .1/.2 so I can't speak for for .01/.02 but I believe you have to raise.

I see words like pot equity, +EV, I even saw saw someone running % of hands vs. hands, etc.

In .5/.10 and .1/.2 people do play like they are playing with real money believe it or not. But it is the way they think that most better players fail to realize. I look at this hand as your opposition basically has 20 outs. 4 A's, 4 K's, 4 Q's 4 J's and 4 T's. You have to treat the board as one opponent. Now, if you make it 2 to go, I just imagine my wife as playing against me. My wife is looking at her hand and I'm guaranteeing you she is saying this "O.k. I have a Q and 3 and they don't match any of the cards on the board and it's going to cost me 2 bets, I'm gonna fold." Repeat this thinking for J4, K2, etc. Don't repeat it for Ax because A's are gold. Laying down the A crap I would say is about 50/50.

Now, when I say to my wife after she asks me a question about cards "How much money is in the pot,honey?" Here is the response "Uhhh...I don't know but I've bet once so I have ten cents in...."

Of course, I'm over simplfying things here because many players at this level are thinking about pot size, +EV, etc. but I would wager that the majority are not.

If you just call, every single person with a paint card and an A is in. Anyone with a T I would guess is 50/50.

Anyways, this is my experience but my REAL experience is that if you raise you'll get about 50% of the field to drop an A will hit and you can now muck your hand. If an under card hits, you've got a shot at nice pot.