Micro Limit Theory Regarding the Gutshot

[burntazure]

Hi everyone:

Things have been going steady for me at the micro limits which has given me more time to think about the game. At this point I have been considering the gutshot straight draw.

I am curious as to whether my criteria for playing this draw is congruent with that of an experienced player at the micro-limits; furthermore, it seems that this criteria is heavily dependant upon the level at which one is playing, but it seems to be well suited to microlimit.

This is what I have in mind:

Suppose you are dealt 10d 9d. You are in late position on a typical .5/1 party table (or whatever you play). Assume someone in an early position bets the flop and everyone up to you calls (since we are at a party table). The flop comes

7c 6h X

where the X card is our random variable (more about this in a sec).

So you have flopped the sketchy gutshot draw...

To complete you have 4outs --> ~16% chance to hit --> 5.25:1 dog.

Now let's assume that there are four players in the pot including yourself and the X card is nothing spectacular (i.e. it does not seemingly help nor hurt you). So, say there are seven small bets in the pot and it costs one small bet for you to stay in, since you are getting good pot odds it's okay to call? Am I missing some important fact the will cast doubt on the effectiveness of this play?

The reason that I bring this up is that I usually call in this situation and I do not use PT so I don't know if this is a leak or a correct play. It seems to me that this is correct because you are also getting implied odds (i.e. if you hit you will always get called to the river).

Please offer any insight if you feel up to it....

Now to the random variable X card. This is the card that I pay most attention to:

1. does it contribute to a 2-flush on the board?
2. is it an overcard?
3. is it a diamond (still considering my example) and provide a backdoor flush draw?

This is also valuable information to consider when making decisions in these gutshot draw situations. However, I think that the conclusions to be drawn from those three questions are straightforward to apply and the crux of this post is to evaluate the decision to pursue the draw at the microlimits.

Thanks for yr time. adios.


* ps: this whole post assumes you are drawing with the upper end of the gutshot and not the beat down and utterly worthless bottom end.

[Peter Harris]

things missing:

1) whether or not you are closing the action (a raise behind is bad)

2) it's 5.5:1 to hit on the turn OR river, so a turn bet if you miss isn't factored in

3) you may hit and lose

4) you may hit and not make enough money on implied odds.

5) you may not need to draw to the straight to win

There'll be more flaws, these are the obvious ones.

Regards,
Pete Harris

[cold_cash]

I'm not sure I understand your question.

You have a gutshot to the nut straight, enough pot odds/implied odds to call, and you're asking if you should continue?


Your action depends on a bunch of different things.

If you have overcards, your hand is stronger and raising might be the right play. If there's a flush draw out there, or the board is paired, your draw is weakened, but depending on the size of the pot and the texture of the board you maybe should continue. If the flop is all one suit, folding could be best. Etc., etc.

My advice is to get a copy of SSH and read the section about playing/evaluating draws. I think it will answer all your questions, and probably raise a few new ones.

[ErrantNight]

facts to consider:

that you've got two overcards over the 7-6 is important

if you had 7-6 and the board game 8-4 how would your opinion change? 9-5?

of course backdoor flush draws help... it gives you additional outs to catch

you are also in an ultra specific circumstance... you have two overcards to a gutshot straight draw on a rainbow board with a third blank in last position...

in this ultra-specific circumstance you probably have proper odds to be calling all the time... but the moment you're in early, or even mid position, or that third card isn't a blank and suddenly you're way behind, someone else has a draw, etc. etc. it can be a bad situation

look around for the thread by ed miller about leaks in your game... this ultra specific circumstance is NOT a leak in your game, because even if it's slightly wrong to make this call given implied odds (or slightly profitable), this circumstance is so unusual that you will frequently not see this situation in a decent-length session, let alone more than once

what you should realize about the gutshot is that outside of the scenario you outline, gutshots give you such poor odds that in and of themselves they aren't worth drawing for, BUT simultaneously HAVING gutshot outs can turn marginal calling/betting/folding situations into not-marginal situations

[burntazure]

Yes. Basically I was asking if I should continue if the X card was non-threatening. I know this situation comes up infrequently, but I was just checking if I should. It's just that I usually do continue and I wanted to know if this play would have any drawbacks.

I have been looking for SSH at the bookstores; it seems that either the stores do not carry it yet or they've been sold out.... so I will probably buy online. take it easy.

[burntazure]

"what you should realize about the gutshot is that outside of the scenario you outline, gutshots give you such poor odds that in and of themselves they aren't worth drawing for, BUT simultaneously HAVING gutshot outs can turn marginal calling/betting/folding situations into not-marginal situations "

ok. this is helpful. thanks. I play like this too, but I guess I needed some reinforcement.

So, I noticed you are from boston. I go to school here. I am trying to build up my online bankroll to support some foxwoods trips.... you ever go there? the poker room seems chaotic and it sucks waiting for tables. I wish they put a damn poker room in boston! heh. adios.

[cold_cash]

The answer to your question is "yes" in a general sense, but different factors will determine exactly how you should continue. (bet, check/call, raise, check-raise, etc.)

You can order the book through this site. Over on the left panel someplace.

[DMBFan23]

"is that in and of themselves they are not worth drawing for"

the odds of making a gutshot on the turn are roughly 11-1 against. with just one preflop raise, you will often have these odds. if your draw is to the nuts, and you're getting 11-1 or better, your gutshot is very worth drawing for, even without a backdoor flush or overcards

[detruncate]

You'll frequently have the odds (or nearly so) to call one bet on the flop with a gutshot, but you'll most often have to release on the turn when you miss. This means that you want to use the odds to hit on the turn (~11:1) rather than the odds to hit by the river unless you're factoring in the additional outs that a gutshot will give a hand that may be ahead but is vulnerable, or that has other draws that will likely see you through two streets.

As other people have mentioned, your position is important, as paying 2 bets to see the turn will destroy your gutshot odds... especially if you're a little thin and relying on implied odds to make up the difference. You might make up 3-4 SB on later streets, but you most often won't be able pull in enough bets to save your 7:1 call that turns into a 9:2ish situation when someone raises behind you. Note that I'm not saying that you should call a gutshot with 7:1, just that you want to be absolutely sure you're not going to face a raise if you do.

Overcards might add as many as 3 outs (1.5 each) if you're likely to win when you hit them... in which case consider raising to help clean them up. Especially if you also have backdoor flush outs. Combined, these can turn an 11:1 shot into about a 5:1 shot. However, medium overcards are vulnerable, so you probably want to devalue them a little more when you're counting your outs.

[radek2166]

So there needs to be 11 bets into make the gutshot worth going for. Say I am in the bb with 78o. Its checked around to me. Flop comes 4 6 a. I check, utg bets. same 5 callers to me. What should I do? I am really strugling with this concept for some reason.

I am reading Lee Jones right now. Also reading hpap. Have read the book by John Feeney. I am really haveing trouble with this gutshot thing.

[zram21]

[ QUOTE ]
So there needs to be 11 bets into make the gutshot worth going for. Say I am in the bb with 78o. Its checked around to me. Flop comes 4 6 a. I check, utg bets. same 5 callers to me. What should I do? I am really strugling with this concept for some reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well with the 7 small bets from the preflop action and the six more to you now you are getting 13-1 on a draw to the nuts assuming the board isn't two-tone or mono-tone. With pot odds alone it is a profitable call.

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So there needs to be 11 bets into make the gutshot worth going for. Say I am in the bb with 78o. Its checked around to me. Flop comes 4 6 a. I check, utg bets. same 5 callers to me. What should I do? I am really strugling with this concept for some reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well with the 7 small bets from the preflop action and the six more to you now you are getting 13-1 on a draw to the nuts assuming the board isn't two-tone or mono-tone. With pot odds alone it is a profitable call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to expand on this...

Any 4-out draw (like a gutshot) will hit about 1 time in 12, which means that it's 11:1 against. If you're going to play it profitably, the 1 time you hit has to (more than) pay for all the times it misses. This means that if you pay 1 SB to chase and there isn't at least 11 SB in the pot by the time it gets to you, you're losing money in the long run (ignoring implied odds). If you think about it... you lose 1 BB 11 times it misses (-$11SB), so you have to make at least $11 the time it hits just to break even.

Count the bets in the pot. Both the ones already in there, and the ones people put in on that round. If there's not 11 or thereabouts, think about folding. Especially if you're not drawing to the nuts.

Also, other considerations come into play. If there are people behind you that haven't acted yet, you have to worry about a raise. If the board is two-toned or paired, you generally want a few more bets in there to make up for the times you hit your hand and still lose. Finally, make sure that you outs are clean. If your card could make a better straight or flush for someone else, you have to factor that into the decision.

In your example, you don't mention the suits so I'll assume it's a rainbow flop. Examine your options:

(1) You're not folding. Plenty of odds to chase.

(2) Everyone is trapped in the pot, and will have odds to chase pretty much any draw for 1 more bet, so raising will not do anything to protect your hand by cleaning up your pair outs, nor will it earn you Sklansky bucks from putting your opponents in a position to make incorrect calls odds wise. Futher, it won't be a value bet, as you'd need more callers than you have odds against your draw. In other words, you'd need 12 people putting in bets for you to be making money on the raise from a pot odds perspective.

(3) You have correct odds to call, and you're closing the action so you don't have to worry about anyone raising behind you. Call the bet and hope you hit.

[radek2166]

Thank you. I am going to print that response and post it next to the puter. The thing is please correct me if I am wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
(3) You have correct odds to call, and you're closing the action so you don't have to worry about anyone raising behind you. Call the bet and hope you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will rarely be in this position. Is that correct?

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you. I am going to print that response and post it next to the puter. The thing is please correct me if I am wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
(3) You have correct odds to call, and you're closing the action so you don't have to worry about anyone raising behind you. Call the bet and hope you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will rarely be in this position. Is that correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

In that exact position? Probably not. But you will sometimes find yourself with proper odds and just one or two people to act after you. You can't be too afraid of a raise unless the players are predictably aggressive or the board is scary. Like everything, it's a gamble. If you think there's a reasonable chance you'll make it to the turn without having to put another bet into the pot, you have to give it a go. If it doesn't work and it's one bet back to you, you pretty much have to call and hope that you get good action if you hit. Even if it wouldn't make sense to put 2 bets in at the outset, once it comes back to you you'd be wrong to drop for 1 more - you have the inital bets that caused you to call in the first place, plus all the additional bets that have gone in since then.

The important thing to remember is that you're only risking 1 bet, so it's not a disaster if things don't work out the way you thought they would in any given situation in which you're justified to chase. It only becomes significant when you routinely screw up how you play gutshots. Like any other play, keep the odds in mind and take a shot when the situation looks +EV.

[Zetack]

Just to make it clear...in Radeck's example he's getting 11-1 on his gushot call...in the original poster's he's only getting 7-1. Radek cam call the original poster should not unless he believes his J-10 are also outs.

The flop call on a gutshot should be treated as 11-1 not 5-1.


--Zetack