Deciding What to Push WIth When Short Stack

[parappa]

PP 5+1. 6-handed. I'm short stack with 700 chips. Blinds are 150/300. I'm UTG with Q9o. Do I push? More importantly, how do I think about these kinds of decisions?

Q9 is a top 40% hand. Let's say I'm a dominated 2:1 dog to whatever calls. So 33% of the time I get to 1500 and 67% I bust out.

If I wait until the BB, my hand could be better, will (mildly) probably be worse.

If I fold the blinds and get aces in the next orbit, I'm a 3:1 fav (let's say) to double back up to 800 with the blinds coming again.

It seems to me that the lower win % on the immediate push (or a push on the bb with whatever comes) is still worth more than a push with less with a better hand 6-handed with stacks appx. 2000, 2000, 1500, 1000, 750, 750.

Any help welcome. I'd really just like to have some parameters for thinking about these kinds of decisions.

[fnord_too]

Tough spot. If the table is timid, I push here. If I think I'm getting more than 1 caller, I probably fold.

[Mr. D]

It depends on how many people you are stealing from. You DON'T want to get called. I'd only do this from the small blind if it were folded to me. Maybe from the button if both the blinds seem to fold easily to a preflop raise.

[fnord_too]

Oh, another thing about your BB next hand (if you don't push), you may get the option of a free flop in the BB. If so, I like to push my decent hands and check push any flop the other hands. Obviously this is a one opponent type tactic, though some times you can pull it off against two (but with two the pot is laying at least 3.33 to one on a call.)

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
PP 5+1.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, don't play 5+1 tournaments. The fee is just too high. Play 10+1s or go to Poker Stars or Ultimate Bet for 5+.50 SnGs

[kyro]

Gotta push, IMO. It's not a great hand, but if you get crap next two hands, you have very little money left to even double up with. Push, hope you steal the blinds, and use the winnings to pay your blinds if you get crap.

[Gramps]

It's not just the quality of your hand, it's the chance you have of (if called) being HU, vs. being against two or more players. If you fold your UTG hand, and get total, complete crap in the BB...now you're down to 400, and may see the flop on your all-in hand against multiple opponents (which may make you a bigger dog with a better hand than Q9). That's a scenario you want to avoid.

Also, assuming you can get it heads up as UTG or BB, the hand you're likely to be HU against if you push UTG is going to, on average, be worse than when you're in the BB. If someone has a premium hand in either situation...well ...you're just out of luck. But, when you push your Q9 UTG, there's a good shot of folding out some better hands behind you (Ax, KJ, etc.), as 2.5 times the BB is a pretty steep price to call, with players behind still to act. Those same players may bring it in for a raise when you're in the BB, since they get to act first in that scenario.

If you push Q9 UTG and it does get folded around to the BB, he's getting some mighty fine pot odds (close to 3:1) to call you - and he's likely to do it with a lot of hands you're a favorite against. And...if the BB has total crap, you may win 450 chips uncontested. If he calls and you win, you're off of life support and will still have 1100 in chips if you just pay your blinds the next two hands.

If you wait til the next hand in the BB, if you get HU, on average that hand you're up against will be better (since any player with a good hand will probably bring it in for a raise). So...even if you pick up a better hand in the BB than Q9, you may still be in a worse spot.

Thus...I say push your Q9. 2.5 times the BB as UTG, that's just not a very good spot to be in.

[stupidsucker]

IMO this is a push no question at all. You are UTG, you should have pushed with worse in a better position (but we dont always get the chance) The very next hand you are auto crippled with being the BB, and you have to HOPE you get a PREMIUM hand. If you push UTG then you have a decent chance it will get folded around and you take down the blinds enough to live through them. You cant stop here though. You have to get ready to push a lot.

Keep in mind that when you are at this spot, you are already an underdog. You cant expect to make the right plays and just glide ITM. Now you need to play right and a little luck is needed too.

[ddubois]

I'm been wondering about this topic. I hate when I get short-stacked and am forced to start pushing with things like A6o or A2s. It seems to be the people who call almost always have a dominating pair or a better ace. For this reason, I'm wondering if I'm actually better off pushing any two face cards than ace-rag? I mean, I don't want AT to call me when I push KJ, but it's better than the A2s vs AT matchup (2:3 compared to 1:2).

[aesic]

If I am shortstacked and I get Ax shorthanded, I'm almost always pushing when I'm first in, and often even pushing if I'm 2nd in depending on my read on the first player.

However, I have also been thinking about the value of 2 face cards when short handed. How good are KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, when shorthanded in all situations (big stack, avg, and small). Particulary, the QJ and QT situation. I know there is a website that has the %'s for pocket cards heads-up against another random hand. Could someone supply a link? Also, you don't expect to be called by "random" cards if your raising or all-in. What is the value compared to the possible calling hands. Obviously a lot depends on reads, but I'm curious about the value of these cards when shorthanded and at different stack sizes.

-aesic

[ddubois]

This is a useful link:

http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/matchup2.html

[ddubois]

If you assume people call a push with the category labeled "top 10%", i.e. 55-AA,AT+,A8s+ (which may be overly tight depending on game state), then KJo, 98s, A9s are all about the same (1:1.8 dog), and A2o is awful (1:2.6 dog).

I am going to need to alter my bubble pushing standards I think. I'm too focused on having an ace when I push, but really, two suited cards 9 or higher seem like they are better during those miserable times that you are called.

[parappa]

Thanks for making this point! In fact, of the 39 hands in the "top 10%" list that have odds from even money--2:1 dog, 7 are pairs, 7 are aces (A8s and up), but 10 are Kings (KJs-K6s, KQ-KT), 6 are queens, 4 are jacks, and the rest are suited connectors and one gappers. Weak aces play even worse.

I'm thinking that at low limits, where Ace-rag is often considered a playable hand from many positions and where Ace-rag suited is an autocall, that it's pretty obviously better to push with K9, even something like 87s than a weak ace, because of the high possibility that you are dominated if you call. Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

[PrayingMantis]

I think this discussion is a bit simplistic if you don't take in some other factors, which many times are more important than the "intrinsic value" of your hole-cards. The table you are refering to is a nice tool, but it gives you not more than a very very rough and basic picture as to where you might stand in a show-down. I wouldn't recommend taking it too far.

Other factors to consider are position (as was mentioned), number of opponents, stacks, images, previous dynamics of the game, information about other possible hands, and more. I'll focus on a few of them.

Position is a critiacl factor in assessing your pushing hands. Complete garbage hands from LP or SB might worth MUCH more than relatively OK hands from EP, like some Ax, Kx and small pairs.

Degree of desperation: when you're approaching desperation, it is important to move into a more loose (aggressive!) mode, and to try stealing as much as you can. That's because when you enter *real desperation*, your folding equity will be significantly diminished, and that's why your standarts should become tighter again. You should have a feel for what level of desperation you're at, and how to avoid getting into a too-desperate position. Waiting for X hand, according to a certain table or some other rigid concept, in order to make a move, can be very dangarous, and a leak in your game.

Information - Part of the advantage in pushing with any A, in many situations, comes from the fact you have an A yourself, and so the probablity another player has an ace is lower than otherwise. Against players who will call your push with any ace, the fact that you're holding one has an important effect on your folding equity. That's why, in many cases, pushing with Ax is almsot always better than pushing with Kx, although some hands like KQ, QJ, KJ and such can be sometimes marginally better than A-small, especially from EP.

These general aspects work together, side by side with an accurate assesment of the actual conditions of the game. Being able to factor all of this into your game, is the crucial advantage of a strong SNG player.

[parappa]

Thanks for the response, PM.

[ QUOTE ]
The table you are refering to is a nice tool, but it gives you not more than a very very rough and basic picture as to where you might stand in a show-down. I wouldn't recommend taking it too far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it useful as a starting point in these sorts of short-handed situations, or would folding equity be a more important starting point? Does it make more sense to start with something like "I have a hand that'll win x% against y random opponents, now how many people do I need to make fold and what're the chances they'll do so?" or would it make more sense to start with "what's my best guess of my folding equity from this position? x% Now, let's think about how my hand will do in the 100-x% of the time they'll call?"

Or, does it (as I fear you're going to say) simply "depend"? And what does it depend on?

[ QUOTE ]
Information - Part of the advantage in pushing with any A, in many situations, comes from the fact you have an A yourself, and so the probablity another player has an ace is lower than otherwise. Against players who will call your push with any ace, the fact that you're holding one has an important effect on your folding equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean that it increases it, because there are only 3/4 of the chances that they'll have a large range of hands that they would usually call with?

I'm sorry if these questions seem really basic. I'm a newbie to Sngs.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it useful as a starting point in these sorts of short-handed situations, or would folding equity be a more important starting point?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is important to know where you'll stand if your opponents will call you with an X range of hands. However, big part of your EV in these situations is folding equity. You force your opponents to laydown a big percentage of their hands, many times hands that beat you, and by that you win the pot uncontested. This concept is very important for tournament poker, and was discussd here before, and also in a very nice recent post by MLG ( Definition of Folding Equity (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=889067&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1) ), - only notice this one is more focused on MTTs.

There is no "starting point", IMO. The thing is, agressiveness is extremely importent, more so in higher buy-ins, but many times also in lower ones. You are playing on your opponent's will to survive. Even if he's a really weak player, he usually understands he has to have SOME hand in order to call all-in. In order to push, many times all you need is two cards. Be careful not to take it too far, of course. But be aware of the power of pushing.

[ QUOTE ]
Does it make more sense to start with something like "I have a hand that'll win x% against y random opponents, now how many people do I need to make fold and what're the chances they'll do so?" or would it make more sense to start with "what's my best guess of my folding equity from this position? x% Now, let's think about how my hand will do in the 100-x% of the time they'll call?"

Or, does it (as I fear you're going to say) simply "depend"? And what does it depend on?


[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, it makes most sense to act upon your feel and read of other players. Against tight players you can push with a much wider range of hands than you can against loose callers, of course. There are MANY opponents, which in many situations (specifically on the bubble, in mid-high buy-in's), it is +$EV for you to push against with ANY hand, since their calling standards will be so high at that point (only big pairs and such, depending on their read on you), and the blinds are so high, it's just a great proposition no matter how you look at it.

When you're pushing from EP, you have relatively small infortmation about other people's hands. More people to act, more chances one of them wakes up with a good calling hands, by his standards. OTOH, pushing from EP signifies strength. It is complicated. But when it's folded to you on LP, or on SB, or when some weak players limp in to your blind, etc, many times pushing is very much +EV with a big range of hands (in a somewhat paradoxical way, it might make more sense to push with 74 than with J7, since there is less chance you are dominated if called). These are only some examples. There are many many aspects to this.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Information - Part of the advantage in pushing with any A, in many situations, comes from the fact you have an A yourself, and so the probablity another player has an ace is lower than otherwise. Against players who will call your push with any ace, the fact that you're holding one has an important effect on your folding equity.


[/ QUOTE ] You mean that it increases it, because there are only 3/4 of the chances that they'll have a large range of hands that they would usually call with?


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for not being clear. If he'll call with any A, now there are less possible hands for him to call you with, so he'll fold relatively more times, hence higher folding equity than if you don't have an A. When holding A-small it is close, but still significant. I made some analysis of similar situations a few months ago on the theory forum. I'm too lazy to search for it now. Anyhow, it's something to consider.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry if these questions seem really basic. I'm a newbie to Sngs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're asking good questions. We were all newbies, so it's no big deal.

[akira]

Good post, that was great info!

I was thinking about the "degree of desperation" aspect when playing SnGs and MTTs as well. It seems like whenever I play tournaments, especially in faster turbo type tournaments, there comes a moment when I realize I am approaching desperation mode, and decide to loosen up steal the blinds / move all in depending on my stack. However, when I think back to the previous hands I played in tight mode I realize that some of them would have been great to have at this point, and regret not playing them.
That makes me think that I should think of my desperation degree more of a gradient as opposed to either playing tight or loose. Maybe loosen up a bit as I get and closer and closer to 10XBB.

I especially have a hard time in MTTs since they are usually full tables. I have trouble loosening up at a full table with marginal hands (Ax, Kx, etc..) especially when I'm above the 10XBB stack. However, once I am blinded away I wish I would have played those hands more aggressively. This doesn't happen that much in SnGs since they are more shorthanded at the end, and I tend to do better in shorthanded situations.

How do you guys deal w/ reaching closer and closer to desperation point at a full table? Seems like whenever I get a decent stealing, or reach late position someone is limping or raising taking away my chance to steal.

[NegativeEV]

Just wanted to echo PM's response and provide an additional thought on the Ax question you raised. There are several charts you can find that show you the percentage chance that another player has an Ace if you have one. These charts will show you that if there are 5 players left and you hold an ace, there is less than 50% chance someone else has one as well. With 4 left the chance is only around 40% of someone else holding an ace (if I recall correctly). PM's point is that this knowledge (that you know where one of the aces is) gives you a good reference point when evaluating folding equity if you know you'll be called when an ace is in play. Combine the stasitical knowledge of the change of another ace being in play with the strenth of your kicker and Ax can be a powerful pushing hand late.

[Robert Ezzo]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, don't play 5+1 tournaments. The fee is just too high. Play 10+1s or go to Poker Stars or Ultimate Bet for 5+.50 SnGs

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this written by a lot of people. If you are just starting out, and losing all the time (as you get a feel of the game), then IMO playing 5+1 is the smart thing to do. Get the feel of the game, learn how to play while gaining some real experience, and once you start breaking even or close to it, then shift to the 10+1 to get away from the bad 20% rake. It just doesn't make much sense to lose money faster, just to avoid a rake when you aren't winning anyway. (And playing elsewhere can be dicey, since you are often up against harder competition, which is only good if you are up to the challenge.)

[ddubois]

then IMO playing 5+1 is the smart thing to do

If some losing newbie really wanted a "cheap education", they still should not play the Party $5 SNGs, but instead sign up for another site and play lower stakes SNGs. I think I heard UltimateBet has something like $1/.10cent SNGs? I think paying $1 rake on a $5 SNG is inadvisable under any circumstances.

[ddubois]

There are several charts you can find that show you the percentage chance that another player has an Ace if you have one

I'd like to see a link if you get a chance.

Clearly having an ace reduces the chance of someone else having an ace, and thusly reduces the chance of someone having a hand within their calling standards. That's a good point I hadn't properly considered when looking at the matchups involved when you are called, and a good argument for the strength of Ax. But how large is this effect? Also consider, even if the odds of someone left to call having an ace is reduced by 25% (invented this number for purposes of example) by virtue of you having an ace, the impact on the likelihood of them having a hand within their calling standards is not going to be that 25%; it's going to be much less. Let's be generous and say the impact is 15%.

So, let's say by default 30% of your pushes are called if you have no ace, and 25% are called when you have an ace (15% of 30 is 4.5). Again, these are numbers pulled out of thin air, but seem like a reasonable estimate for the $10 SNGs. I don't know about $200 SNGs, but I get called alot. Now look at how A2o (1:2.2 against top15%) performs when you are called, versus QJs (1:1.5 against top15%) when you are called. Is picking up the blinds 20% more often (relatively, 5% in absolute terms) worse or better than winning the showdown 30% more often (relatively, 10% in absolute terms)?

This is all somewhat moot anyway. I don't get to choose whether I get QJs or A2o when I'm short and it's finally folded to me on the button. I probably have to push either hand regardless, and often worse.

[NegativeEV]

Good thoughts. I think the FE value increase of 20% (number you made up) may be understated at the $11-$33 tables since any schmuck with an ace will gladly take a 50/50 and show down at these tables. The knowledge that an ace is out of play is very valuable and would probably increase FE more than 20% IMO. Regardless I'm just making up numbers too, but I take the added FE over the increased chance of winning if given the choice as my goal is to avoid showing my cards for many reasons (i.e. no chance of losing when they fold plus they don't need to know my pushing standards on the bubble).

As for the table for probability of an ace being in the field, I think Brunson's Super System has the table in the appendix section. If not, I think I've seen it online as well, but I can't recall where.