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mrmazoo
08-03-2004, 10:35 AM
$20/2 on partypoker
10 handed, 3 places pay

down to 4 players
you are on the SB with about 4x the BB left in chips
the players to your left and right have about 7x the BB in chips and the player UTG has about 10-12x the BB in chips.

Chip leader has been calling everyone's all-in bets in the last few hands. The guy to your right is a somewhat tight player.

Chip leader calls the BB and tight player goes all in. You look down and see TT. Do you call, knowing that the chip leader will probably also call or do you fold and hope tight player busts out and puts you in the money? Is this even a close decision?

I realize that TT is very likely to be the best hand. I'm guessing it is going to be about a 50% favorite to win against two players.

Ok...let me try to figure this out. Half the time I'm going to lose the hand and be busted for a loss of $22. The other half I will triple up and end up the chip leader, giving me a good chance to come in 1st or 2nd place.

If I fold, then I gotta figure there's a slightly less than 50% chance that tight player will lose and I will be in the money with little chance of coming in 1st but a decent chance of coming in 2nd. Worst case scenario is tight player wins and I'll have to fight my way into 3rd place as a fairly large underdog.

There's too many variables. I can't think it out clearly.
Can someone help?

Cleveland Guy
08-03-2004, 11:17 AM
If this guy is as tight as you say - and the BB is as loose as you say, what do you think the tight player went all in on?

I'm guessing something AA-JJ or AK-A10. Either way I see you as no more than 50/50 vs. one player - and probably behind him. The loose player could call with any paint it seems like, or a suited connector, which takes you down to about 30-40% chance to win.

I'd like to be the first in the pot here - and better odds than that.

Although with only 4x BB it's not a bad choice to take a shot- just realize your probably behind.