CNN/Gallup Post-Convention Poll: Bush 50%, Kerry 47%

[Dynasty]

The post Democratic Convention polls are usually showing about a 2% gain for John Kerry. But, the new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll actually has Kerry losing support after the Convention.

From the article (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/01/polls.bounce/index.html):

Of the 1,011 adult Americans interviewed, 916 identified themselves as registered voters and 763 said they were likely voters.

The registered voters surveyed favored Kerry over Bush 50-47, a slight change from 49-45 found in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago.

The likely voters polled favored Bush 50-47, whereas two weeks earlier they had favored Kerry 49-47.

The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

It's still my impression that Kerry hasn't really given the country a reason to vote for him. If he depends on people simply voting against Bush for his aggressive stance in the War on Terror, I don't think it's going to be enough.

[Nepa]

not bad, Bush is up in 4 of the last 17 polls to come out. My guess on the CNN poll is that they called too many ppl. from Utah.

Bush vs. Kerry (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html)

[jokerswild]

I guess that you didn't read my previous thread

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess that you didn't read my previous thread

[/ QUOTE ]

You're an idiot so I ignore your threads.

[Zeno]

Given that the poll has an error of plus or minus 3.5 points shows that the contest is still very close and too close to say that one candidate is definitely in front of the other.

[ QUOTE ]
It's still my impression that Kerry hasn't really given the country a reason to vote for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

My sentiments exactly. He babbles a lot, his lips move, but he doesn't say anything. Oh - I forgot - He can Salute.


-Zeno; Now an offical political junkie. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[daryn]

nice

[astroglide]

1000 people is a worthless sample to represent millions of people

[ClarkNasty]

No it's not.

[jokerswild]

You didn't ignore this one. I know that Bush sycophants like you believe that anyone that doesn't glorify the great leader should be sent to re-education camps(US prison system.) Fortunately, your Fuhrer hasn't obtained true absolute power.

By the way, brown nose, this is the first thread of yours that I've bothered to look at. Probably, I will be forced to read them all and counter your jack booted lies. How sad. People like you hardly merit the concern.

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't ignore this one. I know that Bush sycophants like you believe that anyone that doesn't glorify the great leader should be sent to re-education camps(US prison system.) Fortunately, your Fuhrer hasn't obtained true absolute power.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you make statements like this, even those on the left think you're an idiot.

Stu

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]

t's still my impression that Kerry hasn't really given the country a reason to vote for him. If he depends on people simply voting against Bush for his aggressive stance in the War on Terror, I don't think it's going to be enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Kerry has peaked. His numbers are going to slide a bit between now and Nov. In the end the popular vote will be close, but Bush is going to win the electoral vote.

Stu

[astroglide]

yes it is

[SinCityGuy]

The CNN/USA Today Gallup poll has been notoriously weak the past couple of elections.

The Zogby Poll has been much more reliable, and it has been almost exact on the final outcome.

[Zeno]

1000 random people is a statistically valid number to use in polls. Gallup proved it years ago.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it. I polled myself 1000 times and it all came out correct. Plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

-Zeno

[jokerswild]

A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave Kerry-Edwards a narrow lead over Bush-Cheney, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 3 percent for Nader-Camejo.

[jokerswild]

_A CBS News poll released Monday found the Democratic ticket slightly ahead of Bush-Cheney, 48 percent to 43 percent with Nader at 3 percent.

[jokerswild]

An ABC-Washington Post poll showed Kerry and running mate John Edwards (news - web sites) slightly ahead among registered voters, with 50 percent to 44 percent for President Bush

[SinCityGuy]

CNN/USA Today (7/30-7/31) = Bush +4:
Bush 50
Kerry 46

ABC/WP (7/30-8/1) = Kerry +2:
Kerry 49
Bush 47

American Research Group (7/30-8/1) = Kerry +4:
Kerry 49
Bush 45

Newsweek (7/29-7/30) = Kerry +7
Kerry 49
Bush 42

Zogby (7/27-7/29) = Kerry +5
Kerry 48
Bush 43

Rassmussen (7/31-8/2) = Kerry +1
Kerry 47
Bush 46

CBS (7/31-8/2) = Kerry +6
Kerry 49
Bush 43

[jdl22]

As I stated earlier, these polls don't matter it's the swing state polls that do. Zogby a week or so ago posted a poll of swing state voters with an electoral college count. It had Kerry ahead with just enough to carry the election but excluded some states that were "too close to call."

Is there any other polling group that has done a state by state survey with the electoral college in mind?

[lil']

If Bush gets a bounce in the polls from his convention, Kerry may not be able to recover.

[jokerswild]

Thank you. The obvious Bush backer that started this thread attempted to convey the idea that Bush actually leads. Your compilation makes the truth evident. Bush backers love distorting the facts. They learned to do this by the great leader's example.

[James Boston]

Such heated debate. Am not! Are too! Am not! Are too....

[sfer]

Given the sampling error, looks like a coin-flip.

[adios]

Kerry yesterday calls for an emergency session of Congress to enact 9/11 commission recommendations even though Kerry has almost all of his votes and hearings this past several months including Intelligence committee hearings. Heard a Democratic congressman stating this morning why Kerry's idea is poor and a rush to enact legislation is a poor idea. Pure political gamesmanship by Kerry in an attempt to promote more Bush bashing. Howard Dean came out and basically accused Bush of playing politics with the latest terrorist alert. He was repudiated by many including Joe Lieberman who stated Dean's comments were outragious. No such comments from Kerry though. He didn't endorse what Dean stated but he certainly didn't condemn Dean's statements either. It's like Kerry is promoting hatred by having his underlings do his dirty work.

[riverflush]

POLLS SUCK. Let's all jump on the one that supports our guy and then argue why that one is the most reliable.

This is a comedy thread.

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a comedy thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

90 % of what's posted around here is comedy.

It's what keeps us going.

-Zeno

[jokerswild]

All the little Nazis all in a row!

[jdl22]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
All the little Nazis all in a row!

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you trying intentionally to act like a parody of yourself or is that just the way you come across?

Try not calling everyone a Nazi or fascist next time. It's a lot better for those of us on the left if we are the ones that don't resort to name calling and encourage a reasoned, civil debate. Saying that Bush is Hitler or that everyone that's conservative is fascist only mutes any valid points you could make.

[bdk3clash]

A more meaningful predictor (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

Supposedly, it's possible to win the popular vote and not win the presidency... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ammbo]

Vote Quimby.

[bdk3clash]

http://www.rob-clarkson.com/duff-brewery/mayorquimby/01.jpg

"That could have been anyone's ass!"

[CCass]

I don't know where that web site gets its numbers, but there is no way Kerry wins TN. Bush will carry TN by 6% or more. I can't put a lot of faith in any poll that shows Kerry winning TN.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any other polling group that has done a state by state survey with the electoral college in mind?

[/ QUOTE ]

The most comprehensive state polling can be found at www.rasmussenreports.com (http://www.rasmussenreports.com)

Some liberals have accused them of being a right-wing polling group, but I've found their information to be extremely accurate.

Currently, they show Kerry leading in states with 227 electoral votes and Bush leading in states with 197 electoral votes.

One thing that I've noticed so far is that Kerry is leading in every state that Gore won in 2000, and he is currently ahead in several states that Bush won in 2000.

[WillMagic]

Astroglide...you need to take a statistics class. 1000 people is plenty.

Will

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know where that web site gets its numbers, but there is no way Kerry wins TN. Bush will carry TN by 6% or more. I can't put a lot of faith in any poll that shows Kerry winning TN.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe the numbers on the site changed from yesterday (when you wrote the above) to today, as right now they have Tennesse as a "Barely Bush" state--Bush 48%, Kerry 46%. (Source: Survey USA, August 2nd.)

"Bush has also barely retaken the lead in Tennessee, which was not supposed to be a battleground state, but with four consecutive polls taken by two different pollsters saying it is a statistical tie, it is shaping up to be one. Bush won Tennessee in 2000, but Clinton won it in 1996 and 1992."

I think the Tennessee vote is a lot closer than you're giving credit for. This Jackson (TN) Sun article (http://miva.jacksonsun.com/miva/cgi-bin/miva?NEWS/news_storyV2.mv+link=200408046368685) says:

Democrats are keeping an eye out for Tennessee after spotting the latest Zogby poll that showed Kerry leading President Bush in Tennessee by a mere percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent. (August 4th.)

[SinCityGuy]

Cheney has been to Tennessee a couple of times recently, and Bush will be visiting also. They are also advertising in Tennessee. If this was already locked up, they wouldn't be wasting their resources here.