final six and top five get a seat

[coolhandkuhn]

Playing in an online tourney on saturday...$10+1, final 5 get a $600+40 seat, sixth gets $85. We're down to six out of 337 starters. Chip Leader has $115k, 2 & 3 have $65k, 4 & 5 have 40k, and I'm bringing up the rear with 18k. Blinds are 1500 & 3000....After a couple rounds of this six man action, it's clear that the other five aren't going to get in each other's way...they all fold when I'm not in a pot, and when it's my blind, they all limp. I'm being targeted (and rightfully so). I get pocket fours UTG...do I push and hope to double up? Blinds are coming around next hand and I'll be down to 13.5k if I can't make a stand with any of those hands. If you don't play fours...what is the minimum hand you'll play in that spot? Any ace? What about a decent king? I need to double up to get back in the hunt, and quick...all thoughts appreciated.

[woodguy]

Tough spot.
Playing UTG you wil get multiple callers so 44 isn't good, very good chances someone will pair a higher card on the flop.
You have to play the waiting game and get a good group 1 hand, or good hand in LP.
Your stack is low, but it can stand a couple of orbits to get better than 44 UTG.
Chances are that someone will get bored or two players will get very good hands and have at it (hopefully)

Make them pull the chips from your cold dead hand, don't give them away.

regards,
woodguy

[coolhandkuhn]

I understand your point about UTG....but I can't wait for a group 1 hand...in 8 hands half of my stack will be blinded away. I need to find a double up hand soon, or else this scenario of implicit collusion between the five chip leaders is going to continue.

[woodguy]

True, and I appreciate your sense of urgency.

But I really don't think UTG w/ 44 is the spot.
Even with worse cards you can have a better position where you don't have to raise the entire table.

regards,
woodguy

[coolhandkuhn]

That makes sense. Thanks.

[James Denis]

Maybe I'm way out of line here, but I disagree with the other poster. I think I would rather be UTG with this hand then in later position. If someone raises from the middle position, you can't really call with pocket fours, because you're either about even or way behind. If everyone else is just waiting for the blinds to grind you out, then their raises are probably more legitimate (except maybe when you're in the blinds).
I think pocket fours is like the 11th or so best heads up hand there is, and therefore probably pretty close to the hand that you try to double up with. If you just push all-in i think it would be rare to see more than one caller, if you do see one. I think personally that I would just push all-in preflop and ideally hope to steal the blinds. I don't think position matters here, because your not going to be betting after the flop. And if position does matter its kind of reversed from normal, because you can't call a big bet, but neither can someone really call you with the closest overpairs- I mean personally I wouldn't feel like calling with 88s when I'm just waiting for the short stack to get eliminated.

So personally, I push all-in and hope the coin toss goes my way.

[lolita16]

You mentioned they were all limping when it was your blind. Are they also just limping when you limp in? If so, I love this spot to limp in and see a flop. If you flop a set or a straight draw or something like it, then push and hope to double up. If the flop totally misses you, you can still get away from the hand and hope for something better. I'm also not crazy about the idea of a push all in with this type of hand. Best case you will be called by overcards and have about a 50/50 shot; worst case you run into a pair and are almost certainly eliminated.

If you limp and flop gin, you are virtually guarantee that you'll at least double, maybe triple or quadruple up and really be back in the hunt.

Regards-

[MikeGuz]

Really a marginal decision. I like the all in play here knowing I am gonna get called but miracles happen you never know what these online players will do. Other thought is if they really are limping to see see a flop I may be in great shape with my bb post flop. Guess at a short handed table with the stacks like they are I play the 44 and cross my fingers.

[gergery]

I think it's right on the borderline. any of the 3 biggest stacks will be happy to coinflip with you and will call with AA-88 or AK-AT. I'd probably wait. You'll get a comparable hand AA-44 or AK-A8 or KQ-KT and can push sometime in the next 5-8 hands with better position.

[coolhandkuhn]

I hadn't actually limped in yet when it got down to six players...nothing above Jack high in the couple of orbits we played through, so I don't know if I'd be called by all or if someone would raise me to try to get me all in and eliminate me.
I don't think I like the line of limping with the fours, b/c my best case scenario is that it doesn't get raised and I see a flop, where 7 times out of 8 I don't flop a set and will probably have to fold. Worst case scenario is that I get raised all-in, and I don't think I like calling with fours here, which means another 3k lost, and I'm dangeoursly close to insignificant stack size.
For what it's worth, I did push all in...got called by 2nd place chip count with his pocket 9s, and that was my tourney.
My bigger question is, if in the same spot, I get a medium ace or a high king, do I push there, hoping for either a steal of the blinds, or to get lucky, or do I have enough chips to wait another round before getting that desperate?

[ilya]

44 may be a good heads-up hand against a random hand, but it does pretty poorly against the range of hands that are likely to call you (say AK-AT, KQ, and AA-88). I would rather push with a hand like KQ or even QJ in this spot; you're less likely to be dominated, not least because the fact that you're holding two face cards reduces the chances your opponents also are.
So I think I fold 44 here.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Best case you will be called by overcards and have about a 50/50 shot; worst case you run into a pair and are almost certainly eliminated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.
Best case is the whole table calls you and you flop quads. 2nd best case is they all fold.
Worst case is you get called by an overpair and don't catch up.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
So personally, I push all-in and hope the coin toss goes my way.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a coin toss though. He's going to get 3-5 callers depending on who's in the blinds and how good the short stacks' hands are.

Post flop it's going to go like this:

Flop: Check-check-check
Turn: Check-check-check
River: Check-check-check

Overcards WILL fall, so you'll likely have to dodge 6 cards falling. Of course, if the 4 falls, then you're in good shape.

[James Denis]

[ QUOTE ]
He's going to get 3-5 callers depending on who's in the blinds and how good the short stacks' hands are.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree that if he anticipates more than even one caller he's in bad situation and cannot contemplate the all-in push.

If my read on the table were the same (3-5 callers) i'd just fold too, and hopefully wait for a better opportunity to double up.

[Cleveland Guy]

Not that it changes much- but I just don't see 3-5 people calling this. Both of the people around 40K would proably want to get out of the way, because if they lose and the Hero wins, they have basically switched positions, and would be the short stack.
So your down to the 3 big stacks. As they are probably all trying to avoid each other, I think the first one to call plays and the others fold. 36K in chips is a huge swing for any of these players still - so I think your up agaist 1 caller and now it's about 50/50.

Your short stack so not a bad place to push- you'll get better but also get a lot worse.

[gergery]

I estimate the chances of getting 3-5 callers here at slightly less than...never.

If you get one caller, the rest will fold unless they have AA/KK. If you get one caller and another player comes in, all the rest will fold without looking at their cards.

--Greg

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If my read on the table were the same (3-5 callers) i'd just fold too, and hopefully wait for a better opportunity to double up.



[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm...can anyone else see how absurd this statement is?

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
I estimate the chances of getting 3-5 callers here at slightly less than...never.

If you get one caller, the rest will fold unless they have AA/KK. If you get one caller and another player comes in, all the rest will fold without looking at their cards.

--Greg

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a satellite, 5 winners take home the same prize. The stacks are like this: Chip Leader has $115k, 2 & 3 have $65k, 4 & 5 have 40k, and hero bringing up the rear with 18k.

Why wouldn't the leader, 2 and 3 just call the 18K and check it down to give themselves a better chance at winning. There are no points for coming in 1st place here. The only players that should think about folding are the 4th and 5th chip stacks here.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Not that it changes much- but I just don't see 3-5 people calling this.
So your down to the 3 big stacks. As they are probably all trying to avoid each other, I think the first one to call plays and the others fold. 36K in chips is a huge swing for any of these players still - so I think your up agaist 1 caller and now it's about 50/50.

Your short stack so not a bad place to push- you'll get better but also get a lot worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 3 big stacks all know that there is only one goal left. Eliminate 1 player. For 18K, why wouldn't they all call and check it down? Are they really that afraid of quadrupling up our hero?

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I estimate the chances of getting 3-5 callers here at slightly less than...never.

If you get one caller, the rest will fold unless they have AA/KK. If you get one caller and another player comes in, all the rest will fold without looking at their cards.

--Greg

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a satellite, 5 winners take home the same prize. The stacks are like this: Chip Leader has $115k, 2 & 3 have $65k, 4 & 5 have 40k, and hero bringing up the rear with 18k.

Why wouldn't the leader, 2 and 3 just call the 18K and check it down to give themselves a better chance at winning. There are no points for coming in 1st place here. The only players that should think about folding are the 4th and 5th chip stacks here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the cost of making a mistake or losing a flip is huge -- either 2nd stack ends up as 4-way tie for shortstack if they lose, whereas if someone else calls ahead of you, you have zero risk and maybe a coinflip shot at shortstack being eliminated.

Anyone calling is essentially sharing the benefit of eliminating the shortstack with 5 other players, but taking on the risk of eliminating him all on their own.

I take my previous comment back...it could very well happen that several would call, but it seems terrible play by anyone after 1st caller.

Greg