Hand from the Stars rebuy

[Nottom]

Last hand before the 3rd break. Around 70 left, 54 pay.

I have around 46K, BB in the hand has just over 50K

Blinds are 1000/2000 with a 100 ante.

Folded to the button (big stack) who open limps, I have J /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif and make it 8k. BB calls. Button folds.

Flop is Kc Qd Tc

19K in the pot ... your action?

[M.B.E.]

It's tough because among other things, your opponent could have a medium pocket pair and if so you don't want to drive him out of the pot (at least not without him donating some more chips to you). Ditto if he's holding Ax, in which case he's got hardly any chance of winning the pot although he might think he has up to seven outs. Since you raised out of the small blind, many players would have called in the big blind with weak hands like A4 or A8.

But if he has a queen you would love to drive him out of the pot, though that might be difficult since if he did call your preflop raise with a queen, he probably has a straight draw to go with it.

First option is to just push in. You have about 38K left, pushing is not too unreasonable when the pot is 19K. The main advantage to pushing is that you should get any queen and even some kings to fold. If you do get called by a better hand (most likely AK, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, or QJ) then you have outs to a straight (and backdoor flush). But the main reason I don't like this is you won't get chips from weaker hands.

What I would do is make a small bet, about 4000. It's small enough that you might get called by a small pocket pair or by a hand like A7, which is fine since those hands don't have the implied odds to call you. It also might provoke your opponent to raise a moderate amount, say to 14000. In that case you reraise allin. This shows a lot more strength than pushing in at the outset. Now, even with a hand like QT (bottom two pair) your opponent has to consider folding, whereas it would be an easy call for him had you pushed in at the outset. Of course if you bet 4000 and your opponent puts in a larger raise (making it 20000 or more), then you can fold and you haven't given up too much. If you bet 4000 and your opponent calls, then you can probably either check the turn or make another small bet.

[Lurshy]

A tricky situation for sure. He could have called your raise with many hands, especially if he was just weakly defending his Blind. Obviously you are hoping he has small pp or A+rag. You don't mention what type of read you have on the BB player based on earlier observations, or what your image is.

Four basic options as I see it, two which can be eliminated quickly (imo)

1- Pot sized bet (or larger) - IMO risking too much of your stack in a situation where you may be beat already.

2- Small bet (1-3xBB) I believe is too weak, invites him to come over the top with semi-bluff where you can't call.

3- Check - A free card doesn't hurt you, but it invites him to try and stab at the pot, depending on size of his bet, you could call or get away from the hand.

4- 8-10k Bet - Same size or slightly larger than your preflop bet. Large enough to take it down if he doesn't have a hand, large enough to freeze the action if he has a medium hand (he calls with a K), and he likely comes over the top with only a real hand as you have made two sizeable bets. The biggest problem with this option as I see it is if he calls, and you don't hit the turn. If you fire another bullet, you would be committed with nearly half your stack in the pot, you may need to check and fold.

Hooks hurt, but all else being equal, I would fire a 8 or 10k bullet on the flop, trying to win it there, paying to draw on the turn if calls, folding if he comes over the top, but I don't count on JJ winning without improving.

Would be interested in knowing what others think of this analysis/strategy.

[Nottom]

Thanks for the responses for those that posted (and any that wish to chime in).

The way the hand actually went down was that I made about a 3/4 sized bet into the pot. (I think around 12K) He came over the top and I folded after using up most of my time bank.

I guess it all worked out though because ....

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1y6wr/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/winner.jpg

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Tosh]

Congrats.

[Burno]

Way to go!

Any deal made?

Tourney report on the way?

[betgo]

I would bet allin. You have a pair and an open-ended straight draw. If you get called, it is unlikely you will be a big underdog, and you will probably win the pot right there. This is not a hand I want to fold.