*Gag* A Bankroll Question

[sthief09]

after some expenses, and preparations for school, I've got about $1100 left, with another $400 that I won't get for a while.

Anyone think I shouldn't play 3/6?

[Eihli]

Are you willing to drop down to 1/2 to rebuild?

[sfer]

Your style is a variance magnet. Play 2/4.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you willing to drop down to 1/2 to rebuild?

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you mean? I have enough for 2/4. Why 3/6?

EDIT: I understand what you mean now and you have a great point. No, I'm not willing to go back down to 1/2 unless 100% necessary, so I guess that's a good reason to stay at 2/4.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Your style is a variance magnet. Play 2/4.

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean my 12% PFR isn't normal?

[BigEndian]

Why are you spending your roll? Shame on you.

Now that you have, multi-table 2/4 until you built back up.

- Jim

[BigEndian]

Also, consider getting help for the joy you get out of raising people.

Seriously, trim your PFR back to 9%. Your heart with thank you for it and you can go back to eatting spicey foods.

- Jim

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you spending your roll? Shame on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Josh is in college and underage. The answer is obvious: beer.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you spending your roll? Shame on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Josh is in college and underage. The answer is obvious: beer.

[/ QUOTE ]

my drinking costs me about .42 BB/100

[BigEndian]

He either drinks a [censored]-load of beer or he's going through a 1/5 of Tanqueray 10 a night.

Seriously, I know another guy who regularly dips into his roll rather than wait for the profits off the top - it's a horrible cannibalistic practice.

- Jim

[sthief09]

whenever I sit down, I make a point to pick the 3 or 4 tables with the least amount of players. I realized that's why my PFR is so high.

[sthief09]

beer and a rich girlfriend /images/graemlins/crazy.gif (the rich part is a perfect example of reverse implied odds)

[sthief09]

what's the minimum I should have for 3/6? Can I get away with $1500?

[BottlesOf]

I think you can play 3/6 with 1500. If you hit a really bad run, drop down.

[JDErickson]

[ QUOTE ]
what's the minimum I should have for 3/6? Can I get away with $1500?

[/ QUOTE ]

Set a stop loss limit. Say for instance, if you hit 1k then immediately drop. But you must stick to it. No more "I'll raise just one more hand"

[nothumb]

[ QUOTE ]
what's the minimum I should have for 3/6? Can I get away with $1500?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably. I play 3/6 all the time, and I've only got five hundred bucks.

(This is a terrible reply).

NT

[symphonic]

[ QUOTE ]
beer and a rich girlfriend /images/graemlins/crazy.gif (the rich part is a perfect example of reverse implied odds)

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, a rich girlfriend is a +ev move in the long run.

[Evan]

I think $1500 is plenty for 3/6. I started playing 3/6 with a lot less than that. What would be a good BR for 5/10? if $1500 is the number for 3/6 than that would make it $2500 for 5/10. I'm at about $1800 now and I've been planning to move up when I reach $2000. Does anyone else think that's enough?

[Yeknom58]

You clearly have never had a rich girlfriend. Daddy's money eventually goes away but her expensive taste doesn't.

[Vern]

About the only thing you can rely upon is daddies money will be used to spoil your children but then also be there when you need to pay for their college. I think it is -EV over your lifetime unless you can get her daddie to hire you for a high paying low stress job.

[Tosh]

Get someone to stake you, I'd consider it if its something you're interested in.

[Joe826]

[ QUOTE ]
you mean my 12% PFR isn't normal?

[/ QUOTE ]

hahaha. if you didn't want to start at 2/4 (which you obviously should given your style and your BR) i'd be interesting in staking you for 3/6 or 5/10 too /images/graemlins/shocked.gif. you could also 16 table .5/1.

[sthief09]

yes this is what I meant by reverse implied odds /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Tosh]

4k is about the minimum for Party 5/10. 5k is preferrable.

[MarkD]

It really depends on what these guys mean by "moving up". If they just mean take a shot and hope to go on a good run, then they can do it with much less but if they mean move up for good and give it a real shot than I agree with you that you should have an overly large roll.

[sthief09]

hey Mark, I've always been interested in the concept of taking a shot and you're the math man, so I'm curious what the best way to go about doing it is. How many BB should you commit and how many should you leave yourself with?

is there anything about it in Gambling Theory and Other Topics?

[MarkD]

No, there is no math behind it. It's a completely personal choice (although Mason has stated that he has done it in the past).

Basically how I have done it is that when my bankroll is at a certain point where I know I can lose some money but still not be worried about playing my current limit I take a set amount and "take a shot".

Let's say I'm playing 3/6 and I want to play 5/10. Well, I would feel pretty comfortable at 3/6 with 1500 so when I got to 2000 I might take 500 and try to parlay it at 5/10. If I lose it, oh well. But there is a decent chance you may win and that you may continue to win such that you eventually do building up your BR enough to be a 5/10 player. The thing is you really need to be willing to move down quickly.

I know lots of people on here don’t like doing things this way, and if you are a pro or whatever I wouldn’t do it this way either (well I would but I would have a much larger roll as a safety net and wouldn’t risk as large of percentage).

So, as for a number, I like to limit it between 20-50BB at the level I’m moving to. If I lose more than this I move back down. The way I see it, doing it this way really doesn’t slow your progress much if the goal of your BR is to move up (ie. You aren’t using the money to live). Hence, if I wanted to give 3/6 a shot and was currently playing 2/4 I’d probably take a shot at 1k and be willing to lose around 200 before moving back to 2/4.

When I moved to 15 I had a big enough roll for 15 theoretically but I certainly wasn’t going to put the whole thing on the line. I started off down 1k and at that point I decided if I lost between 2k-3k (wherever I felt comfortable) I would move back down. So far that hasn’t happened, but I will move back down long before I lose the 300BB or whatever the theoretical number is now adays. (I’m actually winning, but just barely. I suck at poker).


This whole process above is why I don't personally subscribe to the entire bankroll philosophy for casual players.

*also: all of the above assumes that when you move to the next limit the games still appear such that you feel you can beat them. If, for whatever reason, I got the feeling I couldn't beat the game I would move down even sooner. I think a good player can generally get a feel for that type of thing without putting much of his roll on the line. Like, I think you can beat 3/6 and I've never really played with you.

[Trix]

Nooo, we dont need more there :P

Teach me 5/10 short and you can have it....

No, really. I haven´t had a single loosing streak above 100BBs over 15K hands there, so I would go ahead. If you start out winning you will have 1800 pretty fast. Just drop down if you go below 500.

There is a bonus on party atm that you might wanna do aswell.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
after some expenses, and preparations for school, I've got about $1100 left, with another $400 that I won't get for a while.

Anyone think I shouldn't play 3/6?

[/ QUOTE ]
You're such a talented and aggressive player that I think everyone has overlooked the obvious.

Can you handle this psychologically? Will you play scared? The paradox is that your fearless style may make you *more* vulnerable to playing scared than someone who naturally plays a cautious waiting game.

BTW, don't let these guys tell you that you are a variance magnet. Go ask someone who actually knows: PokerTracker.

[DrGutshot]

In my slightly more inexperienced days, I decided to "take a shot" at 5/10 SH with a BR of 2,500. After hitting underset after underset, 2nd nut flush to nut flush, and nut flush to rivered full houses, I quickly found myself down a grand in about 2k hands. I finally decided to drop back to 3/6 which I had previously done quite well at. Another two thousand hands later I found myself down to about $700. Thankfully, I have earned it all back plus interest now, but not without many many hours of rebuilding. I strongly reccomend against "taking shots" because nightmare streaks can ruin you, especially if they continue into your fallback stakes.

Just my personal horror story, take from it what you want.

[sthief09]

I also lost 150 BB at 5/10, at the beginning of the summer. Though I won't fully admit it to myself, I'm pretty sure it discouraged me, since I've only played roughly 4 or 5 hours a week online over the summer. I spent more time scheming about how to make the most of bonuses than I did playing.

For some reason, putting all my money back on Party Poker has put me in the mood to play again. It's just so comfortable. Needless to say, I won't be playing 5/10 fulltime with $2500 this time.

[MarkD]

To me, this is not "taking a shot". This is committing yourself to 5/10 short. I would have dropped down to 3/6 within 500 for sure.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
what's the minimum I should have for 3/6? Can I get away with $1500?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably.

I think you can probably start playing with whatever you have now. I honestly can't rememebr the last time I lost more than $400 in the 3/6 game.

Only thing is, if you get smacked down out of the gate you really will have to stop, drop back and rebuild. (SnGs are actually quite nice for rebuilding if you are any good at those, the play at the $30 ones is quite horrible and I think the SNG experts say you can get by with a BR of 20-25 buy-ins which is under $750.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I also lost 150 BB at 5/10, at the beginning of the summer. Though I won't fully admit it to myself, I'm pretty sure it discouraged me, since I've only played roughly 4 or 5 hours a week online over the summer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this feeling.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
hey Mark, I've always been interested in the concept of taking a shot and you're the math man, so I'm curious what the best way to go about doing it is. How many BB should you commit and how many should you leave yourself with?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not mark, but usually want about 1-3 buy-ins above that BR I feel comfortable with at my current level. So if I think I need a 2K BR for 3/6 and I wanted to take a shot at 5/10(SH) I would want about $2.5K (I like to buy in for $500 because the swings are so crazy, but you could certainly do it with less) If you get wiped out, that sucks but you aren't hurting at your old limit. If you win ... well then you get a huge kickstart to your new level.

[jt1]

I'm not as good as you, and my biggest down swing at PP $3/6 was a bit more than $600. Play a few days and if you start out winning then you don't have to worry about it.

[Brian]

Hi sthief,

I've got a little over 125k hands in my Poker Tracker database of 3/6, and in all those hands, I didn't lose more 300 dollars at any given table. The most I lost was $265. I'm not sure if Poker Tracker has a way to tell you the most you lost in any given day, but I'd suspect it was never over $600. Some of this data dates back to October of '03, and the games could have changed since then; however, I was probably a worse player for much of this data than you are now, meaning that I think 1k should easily suffice for you.

-Brian

[EDIT]: I think that the real question is what losing your bankroll would mean to you. Financial ruin? Never playing poker again? If so, then I wouldn't take any risks, and with only 1100, I'd play 2/4, and if I lost a few hundred there, back to 1/2.

[MAxx]

I agree with sfer about your variance, IMO because of your slightly unusually aggressive style. I think you can look at your bank roll in a few ways. You know you are obviously good enough to play 3/6, but it is possible that you go broke here. If you go to 2/4, it is less likely you go broke but may take a little longer to get back to where you wanna be. I think it comes down to a personal question of risk tolerance and patience. How important is the 1100, if losing it means you have to hang up your cowboys for a while and baggin groceries after school until you can scratch some money together- then I wouldnt do it. Be patient and grow your roll back... the games arent going anywhere- why be in a hurry. On the other hand, if it is not that incredibly hard for you to replace your roll (and honestly losing 1,100 won't kill anyone) then you may decide to go 3/6. I suspect though that playing poker is very important to you and if you are like the typical college kid 1,100 is important to you. I would go beat up on the 2/4 for a while. My 2 cents.

[sthief09]

I can't believe all the responses I got to such a boring question. I appreciate all of your help. I played some 2/4 yesterday and got up to 1600, which should be good enough for 3/6. The smartest thing I ever did was putting my money back at Party Poker. For the first time all summer, I actually wanted to play online yesterday.

So thanks again for your help. I'm sure I'll be posting some hands in the near future. I'll be playing under sthief09 again for anyone that plays 3/6.

Also, as far as me being a variance magnet goes, my SD is 17.6 BB/100 and my winrate is 3.22 BB/100 for my whole database. is a SD of 5x my winrate that abnormal?

[sfer]

I'm glad you listened to me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, as far as me being a variance magnet goes, my SD is 17.6 BB/100 and my winrate is 3.22 BB/100 for my whole database. is a SD of 5x my winrate that abnormal?

[/ QUOTE ]
The ratio of SD to win rate is totally irrelevant.

My standard deviation is about 13 so yours is a little high for small stakes.

A high win rate greatly reduces bankroll requirements. If that is actually your intrinsic win rate you do not need an unusually large bankroll.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
can't believe all the responses I got to such a boring question. I appreciate all of your help. I played some 2/4 yesterday and got up to 1600, which should be good enough for 3/6. The smartest thing I ever did was putting my money back at Party Poker. For the first time all summer, I actually wanted to play online yesterday.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good decision. Best of luck.

[ QUOTE ]
I'll be playing under sthief09 again for anyone that plays 3/6.


[/ QUOTE ]

I look forward to seeing you there.

All the best.

Colgin

[Guy McSucker]

Boring statistical answer follows.

What's your win rate? What's your standard deviation?

Work out this number:

1.5 x SD^2 / WR.

That's the Sileo formula for bankroll with 5% risk of ruin. It was kindly explained to me by Bozeman in
this post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=565873&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1).

Anyway I see you're now playing 3-6 and sucking out on us properly bankrolled players. Nice work! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Guy.

[Nottom]

According to that I need $800 to be properly bankrolled for the 3/6 game ... sweet.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

According to that I need $800 to be properly bankrolled for the 3/6 game ... sweet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, if you win 3BB/100 with SD around 15BB/100, that's about right.

Guy.

[AviD]

School sucks

Poker + School...hrm...you plan on going to class? If not, go for 3/6...otherwise drop down to 2/4! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MAxx]

I have not calc SD in several months, and last time I did it manually. Does poker track show this stat, if so- where?

[sthief09]

Session Notes tab, under "More Detail"

[chesspain]

Cool...I just got Pokertracker last week and I was looking for this function.

Is it just me, or could the program use some better "help/search/define" functions?

[MAxx]

I just looked my SD and BB/100 up for 23K hands all levels SD/100= 16.1969, BB/100= 4.63.

For 3/6 its SD/100= 15.7675, BB/100= 7.24. (6k hands)

For 5/10 its SD/100= 13.0406, BB/100= -3.19 (1200 hands)

I have gotten punked down on 5/10, but hoping its just
the small sample size

Any insights here?

[sthief09]

1200 != big

[Guy McSucker]

The standard deviation of your win rate over a particular sample is given by

SD / square root of sample size

It's important to remember that the sample size here is the number of 100 hand samples, so for 6k hands it's 60 while for 1200 hands it's 12.

If your "observed" win rate is within two standard deviations of your "true" win rate, it's within the kind of swings statisticians happily accept. Sadly your true win rate is a number you will never know. But I digress.

Doing some calculations in my head, it looks like all your observed win rates are within two standard deviations of a normal 2 or 3BB/100 rate.

Guy.