10-20: Had to change plans on the turn.

Fish limps UTG. Solid 2UTG limps. Cutoff and button limp. SB folds, and I knuckle with AsJd. 5 to the flop.


Flop: 8h 8s 3d. I bet, fish folds, 2UTG raises. All fold to me and I call. My plan right now is to checkraise the turn regardless. There is no way that this guy has an 8. He might have an Ace or a medium pair, but I think that I can blow him off of it as long as the turn doesn't dot him between the eyes. This stop and go is a fairly routine play for me when I have the goods (an eight in this case). I think this hand is in the bag.


Turn: [8h 8s 3d] Ah


Whoops. Not really the card I was hoping for. Checkraise won't work if he has an ace. And I don't want to stop him from betting a pair now, either. Time to check-call this one down. I check-call the turn.


River: [8h 8s 3d Ah] 4s. I check-call.


Thoughts on the initial turn plan and the change in plan once the Ace hits?

you put him on an A or a medium pair.

assuming he'd raise btf with AQ or AK you have A's covered, and you beat any medium pair. i don't understand why you didn't check-raise the turn or river here.


did you think that he'd fold thinking you had an 8 or 3-bet if he was the one with the 8 making the raise zero (or possibly negative) EV?


just wondering.

thank you.

Checkraise, checkraise, checkraise...


My God boys, there's sure a lot of that going on around here.


You came out betting on the flop, then by God make your plan to come out betting on the turn, ESPECIALLY when an Ace shows up. Reraise him if he gets cheeky. See how Mr Solid 2UTG likes those walnuts. Show him your stones. There are times to be meek but this ain't one of them.


I'm betting he had KK, or maybe even 10,10.


But what do I know? I'm a long term loser. Best of luck. LTL

If you're so sure he doesn't have an 8, I'm surprised you don't check raise the river, or bet it yourself if you think he might stop betting his pocket pair (as some players are wont to do with one pair hands on the river). It's almost a sure thing he doesn't have AK, so discounting the hands with an 8, the only hands you might be beat by are AQ or 44. If he folds to your check raise, you can consider making the rarely seen check raise river bluff against this player in the future. If he reraises, it should be an easy laydown against a nontricky opponent (although even a tricky opponent should be hard pressed to reraise without a big hand after you represent a slowplayed 8 ).

CM,


I can't comment on the turn because there's no way I could check the turn unless I put him on an eight. And in that case, I'd still probably bet, just to be sure. But you think he doesn't have an eight, so checking the turn doesn't make any sense to me unless you were trying to pick off a bluff, but that's not what you said you were doing, was it?


Funny hand. I might have played it the same way, but for an entirely different batch of reasons.


Tommy

He showed me AQ and took it down

Most people advocate a checkraise on the turn. I don't know why I would want to do that since any of the most likely hands he would have are drawing to 2 or 3 outs at best. My actions are consistent so far with a very small pair, and I might get him to bet the river with what he believes is a slightly bigger pair. Also, a worse ace will keep betting, and the same or better ace will likely raise me if I bet out or call if I checkraise. Isn't this a classic case of "you will only get called by the same or better hands if you play it strongly"?


It seems to me that I get the best of both worlds by check-calling here. Particularly on the river, where this player is strong enough to value bet a hand like 99. If I checkraise the turn or lead the river, he ditches that hand. Why would I want that?

I like the river checkraise most of all. I definitely am not going to get 3-bet. The problem is that I don't think he is calling me with any hands worse than mine, do you? Though I do suspect he might fold the same hand, all of his pocket pair hands are folding and none of the hands that beat me are.

Clark I could not agree with you more.


This is one of those times where you are either way ahead or way behind, and free cards do not really hurt you.


This is a good situation to go limp heads-up.

Three points:


1. When calling the flop with the intention of checkraising the turn, you have to be pretty sure that you can blow him off a hand. Some guys will hold on to their 77 or whatever come hell or high water particularly if the turn is a blank. Perhaps, you ought to save the checkraise for situationw here a paint card comes off. BTW, I put him on a medium pocket pair i.e. 66,77,99, TT - not Ace high.


2. I like the change in plans on the turn once the Ace hits. You don't wnat to checkraise now in case he folds.


3. I would bet the river as the dude will likely check his 77, is unlikely to bluff raise with 77 and he probably doesn't have AQ.

I agre with your turn analysis but not your river analysis. You wrote:


"Particularly on the river, where this player is strong enough to value bet a hand like 99. If I checkraise the turn or lead the river, he ditches that hand."


If you think he is capable of value betting 99, your play is to checkcall or perhaps even checkraise. But teh vast majority of players with 99 will bet the turn when the Ace comes but will check the river once you call the turn. Against these guys, you simply must bet your AJ at the end. IMO, you underestimate the paranoia players have of being bluffed out of a fair size pot for one measly bet at the end. He will (should?) look you up with his 99. And if he doesn't, you should bombard him with river bets on future hands. For example, if you had 22 on this hand, you should call the turn bet when the Ace comes out and then plan to bet the river no matter what because you can't lose unless that Ace happened to hit him which in itself is pretty unlikely (I would have put him on 99 and the like on the flop moreso than AQ and the like).


One of the least understood passages in the 2+2 books is this business about betting only when you think you are a favourite to win when called (or something like that - I don't even remember it all that well). The statement itself (whatever it is) is fine but most players read way too much into it and miss river value bets all over the place thinking that they can't possibly be called by a worse hand. In actual play, it's downright amazing how many times you will get called by worse hands.

.. There is no way that this guy has an 8 ..


That's exactly what he thought about you. Why would you play an 8 the way you tried to represent it (his thinking)? Think about what he thinks you have.

My thoughts on your "plan" are that you MUST know your opponent WELL to make this type of plan. Most of the time, I would simply ditch and wait for a better opportunity.


Also, not to nitpick, but I have to nitpick. You didn't actually "stop and go" on this one, if you did, you would stop when he raised, then go by betting the turn again. In your case, you tried to pull the ol' "stop, wait for the chicken to cross the road, philosophize as to why the chicken crossed the road, then check-raise the chicken" play. HUGE difference.


Dave in Hellville, TX (if I don't get back to Vegas or Cali soon, I will DIE of heat exhaustion)

"That's exactly what he thought about you. "


He would be wrong most of the time then. I almost always play my flopped open trips fast. I bet the flop nearly 100% of the time, get raised, then checkraise the turn. It is my standard routine. I even have witnesses since Terrence Chan and Tommy Angelo saw me go through this routine the other night headsup with 57, flopping open trip 5's. I honestly can't remember the last time I waited until the turn to "surprise" them with trips.


I'm not saying you are wrong, either. He may honestly think "theres no way this guy has trips" and called me down with a hand like 99. That's part of why I love the stop and go with trips. I do think that he would have been forced to muck AQ to a checkraise, however. (proveded the A hadn't come, of course)