should've bet on the turn?

15-30 in Upstate NY. i'm playing pretty well and have reasonable respect at table.


all fold to decent player who raises blinds from middle position. i'm one to his left with 99, and I three bet. all fold, he calls.


flop comes 8-4-5. he checks, i bet, he calls. turn is a 10. he checks, i check.


river is a K. he checks?, i check, he shows AK.


another fellow said I played it wrong by not betting the turn. I figure that if the river is a 10 or less, he may try to steal figuring I have AK, AQ, etc., and I take it down.


I also figure that as long as the river is under 10, I have a VERY good chance of having the best hand. In my mind, the fact that only a JQKA potentially beat me and the worry of being check-raised on the turn persuaded me to check.


the problem with my strategy is that if a JQK or A come on the river and he bets, I now am in a bad spot and probably have to fold w/ two overcards on board, even though he may be correct to bet here with anything to try to buy after I show weakness on turn.


i know that many will say that by betting the turn I take control and could win it right there and can fold if check-raised, but I feel that there is a strong argument for just getting to the river for 1 bet in this situation, in the hopes that the river is 10 or less.


comments from the pros are greatly appreciated. I find myself in this situation alot, and would like to improve this area of my game.


they call me chef boy ar dee, cause i'm in every pot . . .

Bet the turn. You can't give a free card. Based

on the action so far, this looks like AK or AQ to me.


Maybe he will call, but it's slightly against the odds (6.3 to 1 against, the pot is offering about 5.8 to 1--check my math).


The chance of picking up the pot is too great the check, however.

You wrote: ...I figure that if the river is a 10 or less, he may try to steal figuring I have AK, AQ, etc., and I take it down.


And...


I also figure that as long as the river is under 10, I have a VERY good chance of having the best hand.


While the above is true, you also have a big potential problem with 99. There are WAY too many cards which could beat you on the river. You gotta reach down between your legs and find a couple of reasons to bet. It's a chance you take. If check/raised, you should probably fold. I say "probably" because I'll sometimes check/raise AK here to keep an opponent on his toes.


The times I might check the turn are when the pre-flop raiser is just as likely to be raising with total garbage as with a legitimate hand. Now overcards aren't as much of a factor and you might induce a bluff or call from a worse hand.

I also figure that as long as the river is under 10, I have a VERY good chance of having the best hand.


This is the best reason I can think of for betting the turn.


I feel that there is a strong argument for just getting to the river for 1 bet in this situation, in the hopes that the river is 10 or less.


You're playing scared.

Chef,


I'm not a pro (yet!); nevertheless, I'll put my two cents on this one.


Your nines are a tough hand; in a limit game,

I think you either throw them away in the face of

a solid player's raise, or three-bet here.


What do you do if he check-raises the flop to represent an overpair? Your pot odds are almost 11:1 here, but I think if you call and an overcard to your pair hits and he semi- bluffs, you're more or less forced to give it up.


From my angle, your opponent is practically

facing his cards when he doesn't lead on the turn-

his play is consistent with A-K. I don't like giving a free card here, though I may be wrong.


On the river, I think he was looking to get a check-raise in, figuring you'd throw your hand away in the face of a bet.


perfidious

If your opponent will fold AK on the turn if you bet, but always bet it on the river if you check, then the play is to check, and it has nothing to do with being scared.


Our friend may be against JJ, AT, or an even better hand, which is all the more reason to check - if nothing else, you get 2 outs you might not have otherwise drawn to, and encourage a bluff on the end - this is very important.


The most compelling scenario of all is against an AK which will call the turn bet and fold the river unimproved, but will bet the river if checked behind on the turn. Now you save a fraction of a bet (for the times he calls the turn and bets out the river when he hits) and win the same when you win.


If you will never be bluff raised, and the opponent will fold overcards on the turn, then I would say bet, but most players will hold on to AK until at least the river - and if he is the type who will call with it twice and not bluff raise, fire away.


Dan Z.