A diff. type of post...If I were villian, where would/should I muck?

[DrPublo]

I'm in the middle of a tremendously hot streak right now (up > $5k for July playing mostly $1/$2 NL), but because I know the inevitable backswing is coming, I've recently taken a liking to analyzing some of the bigger pots I've won from the perspective of the villian, and deciding if and when there was an opporunity to get away from a second best hand. (Does anyone else do this?) My hope is that looking at hands this way will allow me to get away from these second best hands once my luck starts to turn.

What I'm looking for in this thread guys is to see if there was a way for villian to get away from this one, or if he had "no choice" but to lose his money. As always, any and all comments appreciated.

Playing $1/$2 NL last night 4 handed (table was full earlier and re-filled later). Stack sizes:

SB: $~240
BB: $~300
CO (villian): $900+
Me: $564

What I know about the CO is that he's basically a rock. Plays very few hands, loves to limp with AA/AK etc and see if he can get a flop he likes. In 3+ hrs I've seen him hit quads TWICE (once open, once closed) and get paid off on both, but for the most part once the money goes in his stack it's quite difficult to get it back out. When he bets he generally has the goods.

Since we're shorthanded I'm playing pretty aggressively, trying to pick up a lot of little pots and biding my time until the bigger pots happen and hoping to outplay the rest of the table. Aside from myself, play is mostly passive on all streets.

I pick up 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the button. CO limps (relatively rare), I raise to $10. SB calls (meaningless), BB folds and CO calls.

Flop ($32): K /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, I expect CO to check but instead he bets $15 into me. I raise to $45, SB folds, CO calls.

Turn ($122): K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Check to me, I bet $100. He c/r to $300, pretty forcefully. The only other time I've seen him bet this big or with that demeanor was a massive overbet on the river with open quad 9s, and got paid off by top boat. But K3/K7 is unlikely for this player, he wouldn't make this play with a flush draw, and if he has KK then its set over set turned into quads over set and I'm perfectly happy to lose my stack. I think for a minute, mostly for effect, and push the rest ($209 more). He calls with AKo and when the river bricks off I win a huge pot.

The point of this post is not to brag about the big pot I won, but rather to find out if there is a point where CO can safely muck? When I push over the top, maybe? Is it his mistake for not raising PF? I'm interested to get opinions if there is a way the CO can avoid doubling me through.

Thx in advance.

The Doc

[Wayfare]

No offense to the rock, but he seems more like an avalanche. I used to do this a lot during the scully game, but going to war with TPTK is a great way to get broke. I think once the second king came he was pretty screwed, especially when he checkraises that big. He had to call your last $200, so the checkraise was more or less an all in -- he knew if you were still around he would get all-in(at least he should have known this).

I'm glad the deck is hitting you over the head so hard Publo; couldn't happen to a better guy. However, when we head to BPC this saturday, rub a little luck off on me too, will ya? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

EDIT: Beautiful raise on the flop, which was what paved the way for your all-in. Most players would have smoothcalled it and lost themselves a couple hundred dollars (remind me to remember my stack sizes when I get into a pot like this).

Also, his play was terrible. Anyone losing 250x bb with only open trips needs to go back to work.

[DrPublo]

Going broke with TPTK is generally a bad idea, I agree, but we are playing 4-handed here so his hand goes up in value that way. Also, I had been playing pretty aggressively from the button so theres some chance he interprets my raise on the flop as any two cards trying to take down the pot.

Also, playing my sets fast like that is my new favorite play. I either get customers with them or I dont--and it never bothers me too much if I bet someone off a 2nd best hand on the flop with my set because I got tired of giving off a free card and letting my opponents hit straights, etc.

I THINK he might be able to save himself some money if he just calls the $100 on the turn because if I remember correctly the river was a black Q (all I was really looking for was to see that it wasn't an A). Thats somewhat of a scare card, isnt it? KQ could be a likely holding there, so if he checks to me on the river I might be forced into checking behind.

Thoughts on that angle? Or does the money go in no matter what?

The Doc

[bunky9590]

Man I thought I was doing well being up 2.5!

Nice job buddy.

Looks like a set to me on the turn. I just call your 100 bet. But thats me. Once he check raises, he's dropping a stack.

I make a nice chunk of change off cats that think that TPTK is the holiest of holy nuts in NL. This cat is no exception.

[edtost]

as CO, i would probably:

reraise pf
reraise flop
fold to your flop push
go broke once it got to the turn

but i would've had a much laggier image than him, so that play may be even less correct for him than it would be for me.

edit: where was this game?

[Wayfare]

Ed: Brooklyn player's club. We are going this saturday, come one, come all.