10-20: Folding a flush draw on the flop

Played some at the Horseshoe tonight. Terrence Chan was in the game and we discussed this hand afterwards.


3 limpers to the SB, Terrence, who folds. I rap with Tc8c and flash the cards to Terrence. 4.5 sb's in the pot pre-rake.


Flop: Ac Ah Jc. I check, very straightforward player bets, MP and LP fold, I fold.


Terrence agreed with my stated 90+% certainty that the player in question had an ace.


What do you think is the optimal line in this spot?

Clark,


I'm packing for a return trip to California from the East Coast so I won't follow up until tonight.


Call the flop and if you miss usually don't call the turn. Note that he might check behind you with a weak ace anyway giving you two shots.


Regards,


Rick

note you have a back door straight draw.

If you can put him that squarely on an ace, then I don't think there is much wrong with folding, although I think Rick is right that you can take one more off. If you draw to the river, it costs you 1.5BB to try and win 4.75BB (that counts 1 bet won on the river), laying you about even money to stay in if you never lost with your flush. Rick's suggestion to take one off and fold on the turn if you miss lays you 5.5:1 to hit a 4.6:1 shot, which becomes even better after you take into account the extra bets you will usually win after that. One thing that might give me pause is that AJ is probably the primary early limping ace for a straightforward player here, which might have you drawing dead too often to show a profit if you continue.

Hmm, straightforward players tend to bet until they think they are beat, so I don't think Clark's call on the flop will induce a check if opponent has an ace, no matter how weak. As I said below, I like your suggestion to call the flop and usually fold the turn if you don't hit a club, but I would change "usually" to "always".

If you draw to the river, it costs you 1.5BB to try and win 4.75BB (that counts 1 bet won on the river), laying you about even money to stay in if you never lost with your flush.


I should elaborate on that, your odds to make a winning flush against his ace have dropped to a touch worse than 3:1 because of opponent's full house redraws, so getting 1.5BB for 4.75BB is about an even money proposition, not counting those times you make a losing flush.

I don't know too many players holding AJ who aren't going to slow play that flop and let a weaker ace catch up (AK and AQ not likely in play)or let a flush or straight get there. So I think everything else you say is right, but I discount AJ almost completely.

You know, I'm glad I posted this because after the hand, we (Terrence and I) kind of agreed that the "call the flop fold the turn" line was probabaly the best one to take. If I can get both of you to agree that this line makes sense, then I suspect we have found the preferable way to play it.


Thanks.

Part of the problem is that I can almost never bet the river unless I pick up something physically on the guy to indicate that he is mad a flush made it. I think it is safe to assume that the river gets checked down when I'm ahead and I have to call when behind.


As Rick noted, the backdoor straight draw might be my only way to get paid on the river if I am ahead. But even then, unless it is a 9 on the turn and a 7 on the river, he is still likely to check down a 4-to-broadway board unless he filled.


The river is a totally -EV street for me in this spot.

i am confused:


how can you give me the odds for making a flush that i *never* lose with, and then tell me the odds are reduced because i might lose to a full house?


do you mean never losing to a higher flush?


it costs you 1.5BB to try and win 4.75BB (that counts 1 bet won on the river), laying you about even money to stay in <FONT COLOR="ff0000">if you never lost with your flush.</FONT>


your odds to make a winning flush against his ace have dropped to a touch worse than 3:1 because of opponent's full house redraws

While AJ may be this fella's primary Ace high limping hand, he would really have to be straightforward (or perhaps devilishly tricky) to bet the flop.

I don't buy the argument that the river is totally -ev for you. If the flush card gets there, you should no doubt bet. The guy might play straight forward but he will almost always pay off on the river with Trip Aces. If he doesn't, you can rob him blind on future hands. Just go up agaianst him no matter what you have and bet every time a scare card comes off on the turn or river.

The river bet only has value if I can safely muck to a raise.

I like the fold however I'm curious as to why you have to muck to a raise to be +EV on the river. Is it the laying 2 bets to win 1 argument?

Partially. It also might be the two bets to win none if this guy can muck to a bet on the river from an "obvious" flush draw.


I was thinking the river was -EV from a checking and calling standpoint. I suspect that betting the river is slightly positive if he calls with worse hands 100% of the time, and I can safely lay down to a raise and always be correct.

What I mean is the odds are about 3:1 to make a flush without opponent filling out, but you won't always know when you have made a losing flush (i.e. he hit his kicker). Given that you will sometimes pay off with the losing flush, being laid 3:1 to see the river probably isn't quite good enough.

if he has an ace 90% of the time, he has a good chance to make a full house by the river, and all you actually have is about the same chance of making a flush by the river. You must assume of course that he has you beat for now no matter what he has, and that 90% of the time, your raising the flop will result in his reraising you with his three aces, thus raising is not a realistic option for the best play. It seems to me that raising is clearly -EV.


Now if you call, you are getting 4.5 to 1 to draw at the flush, but given the paired board and betting tendencies of your opponent, your draw is really not as good as it might look, therefore calling is also somewhat questionable.


Since the only option left is folding, you must consider whether you are giving up +EV by NOT playing. Calling MIGHT be slightly +EV (I hate to fold if I am getting proper odds to play, even if the margin is small). But given the big bet coming on the turn, your effective odds offer you a marginal draw at best, I don't think folding is at all a bad play here. Fold and reduce your variance on this hand, I don't think the edge is worth chasing, if it existed at all. Put more players in, thus increasing your odds, and it might be different.


Dave in Cali (Stuper-Magoo)