Betting to DISRUPT Pot Odds

[dabluebery]

A situation arose in a NL holdem tournament that has me asking about how to bet with the lead to disrupt people drawing.....

With even stacks (2000), 9 handed, Jason raises to t-200 with AKo and the blinds at 25-50. Chris, on the button calls, and so does the small blind.

The flop was AJ8, two diamonds. Jason bets t200. Button calls, small blind folds. Turn is a 4, not a diamond. Jason bets another 200, button calls. The turn is a 6, and not a diamond. Jason checks his top pair top kicker, button bets 400, Jason calls.

Button turns over 56 of diamonds, and was drawing to a flush, but backed into a straight. Jason knows he underbet the pot twice, giving the button odds to call. But we're not sure of how much is *optimal* to bet here.

You can calculate the break even point where the pot odds give you an EV of zero on the drawing players call. But how much MORE than that does Jason have to bet, to force the drawing player to fold? (I realize that betting more than that break-even point is +EV for Jason, because then the caller will be taking the worst of it from a pot odds position.)

Theory of poker doesn't talk much about an *optimal* betting strategy when betting from the lead. Can anyone fill us in?

Rob

[Ghazban]

When an opponent is on a drawing hand, you should bet the most you can that he will call at improper odds. You don't actually want him to fold when you overbet the pot even if he does make his hand as, in the long run, you will make money if he continues to do this. In a tournament setting, sometimes you want the opponent to fold instead of making a -EV (for him) call as, in the short run, your survival is important. In all cases, the amount you should bet to force him to fold is completely player dependent. Some players will call all-in with nothing but a draw; some won't even call a +EV bet; there is no one correct answer.

[tardigrade]

If you want to force a rational player to fold, you'd have to bet such that not only did he not have immediate pot odds to call, but you also charge in excess of what you would call if he did catch his flush (kill his implied odds, too). If he calls beyond that, good for you.

I think a reasonable strategy in this case that limits your risk while making money from the draws is to bet 1/2 to 2/3 the pot on the flop and the full pot on the turn when no flush card comes up. Basically, you tease him into calling with good odds with two cards to come, then ruin his odds to see the final card. If you don't get overcalls on the flop and he folds on the turn, then you made him pay at least 4:1 for a 4:1 shot (since he only saw one card). If he calls the turn, then the favorable odds he had on the flop are negated by the big 3:1 bet he has to pay to see his 4:1 river card. You need to bet enough on the flop to eliminate overcalls, though, or you can't make this an unfavorable situation for a flush draw.

Hopefully I got the numbers right ... the basic idea is good, though.

[Nottom]

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When an opponent is on a drawing hand, you should bet the most you can that he will call at improper odds.

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I think this pretty much nails it.

If you are somewhat new to the game I would recommend basically always betting somewhere between 2/3 of the pot and a full pot bet (I usually make a bigger flop bet and back off a bit on the turn). If players will call more with worse hands then bet a bit more when you have a nice hand vs. these players.

It is almost always wrong to bet less than half the pot before the river as it gives good odds to lots of drawing hands and (unless you can fold when they make their hands against you without opening yourslef up to being bluffed off of winners) will cost you a lot of money. This is one of the biggest problems begining players make.