I love QJs

[StellarWind]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
BB hasn't played many hands since he arrived two orbits ago. No chance to study his postflop play.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks,

Flop: (7 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 7.50 BB, between BB and Hero.</font>

[House-Lion]

good play, against the party-players.

I think it's a good check on the river.

You either up against an ace that will call your river-bet or up against something else that most likely will call or less likely not call your river-bet.

[J.R.]

I think this is a long run -EV play. Without a read, on a rainbow board, when a tight preflop player bets into 5 players (after the sb checks) from the big blind, second pair (with an undercard kicker and backdoor straight and flush draws) will not be good often enough to warrant raising. Add in the chance you are beat behind you (I can see many crappy aces calling this down, not folding), and I don't like the raise.

Getting 8-1 a call seems in order, and with fewer opponents behind you I might like a raise if you have a read on the big blind, but I don't see this raise as doing much but charging you more to draw in the long run as better hands aren't likely to fold, there is not much hope for the free card on the turn given the 4 behind you (even though you could have gotten one this time), and you aren't really cleaning up your outs (which i think is often a dubious notion). Maybe a better J folds or you muck a backdoor draw that would have gotten there, but you need to improve to win here most of the time and the parlay of you both improving and folding a hand that would have beat you isn't occuring frequent enough to justify rasing and potentially opening you up to a 3-bet bet (although the 3-bet concern seems remote).

[Ralph Wiggum]

I don't understand the flop raise. What are you trying to accomplish? Do you see yourself ahead? If not, do you think you can catch up?

[MAxx]

I am with J.R. and Ralph on this one. I think this is a clear check-call on the flop.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the flop raise. What are you trying to accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm a little surprised by the reaction to the flop raise (not completely, I did post it).

I consider this to be a decent draw which will win unimproved once in a while. The raise can fold a lot of hands I really don't want hanging around: KJ, QJ, bottom pair, overcard king, broadway gutshot, and even a weak ace.

Don't be shocked. Coldcalling my flop raise with a weak ace is an obviously terrible play. I'm entitled to think some of my opponents will fold A2 on their better days. When our opponents call us down with absolutely nothing we see their hands. Just because we can't see what they fold should not cause us to believe that our opponents never fold hands with a chance to win.

There is also some free card potential even if I get some callers behind me. If I check the turn, hands like Ax may be reluctant to bet behind me because SB's check was not voluntary. This is not a major consideration but it helps sometimes.

Ed, if you are reading this, I'd really appreciate your thoughts.

[rjc199]

The pot is big. The bettor is to your right. You have 2nd pair with a nice kicker. You have a backdoor flush draw. That gives about 6.5 outs. It is 8 to 1 to you with the flop bet. You have the odds to call, but calling does not protect your hand. WHO WILL PROTECT THIS HAND? I WILL. Raise to protect your hand and buy outs.

[sublime]

Ed, if you are reading this, I'd really appreciate your thoughts

I think he wrote about his thoughts /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SW- I am with you on this one. The pot is a good size and you were gonna call anyways, so why not raise?

I think this is right out of the "protecting your hand" chapter in SSH.

Nice hand

[Nemesis]

If you're gonna stay in you have to raise. That was the right play no question. If you're upping your odds to win the pot even a little it's worth the 1 SB easily

[StellarWind]

BB shows J9o. MHIG.

[Sarge85]

Ok - I think I can live with the Flop raise - after all it got you heads up.

That being said -

Once your heads-up - I take the free card on the turn. -
The King was a good card as you picked up a draw, but I would suspect that it tends to help your opponents hand immediately and you may face a turn CR.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Danenania]

Well played... as it's often been stated, if you have odds to call then a raise is usually not a bad idea.

Edit: Sarge, I think a free showdown is much better than a free card here. If you check the turn behind, the villain might sense weakness and bet the river with anything making it tough for you to call. Betting the turn also charges any draws that would't payoff the river even if you improve.

[Nottom]

I hate being results oriented, but given the way this hand played out it is extremely likely that the flop raise helped our hero win this pot.

[Danenania]

I think it's ok to be a bit results oriented when plays like this WORK because they don't have to work very often to be correct.

The bad time for it is when you lose to AK and then resolve never to raise this flop again.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Once your heads-up - I take the free card on the turn. -
The King was a good card as you picked up a draw, but I would suspect that it tends to help your opponents hand immediately and you may face a turn CR.

[/ QUOTE ]
A king is actually unlikely to help someone who bet the flop.

If I get checkraised I call and draw. The damage is not great because I have outs and can confidently fold the river when I miss instead of paying for a showdown.

[tpir90036]

the power of bad larry's.....

ni han.

[Brian]

Hi Nemesis,

I disagree. I think calling is an acceptable play here. I think your comments would apply more if the pot were larger, and if there were any chance an Ace would fold on the Flop. You just aren't going to fold out anyone who has an Ace here.

I agree 100% with J.R.'s analysis. And I think everyone is being results oriented if they think that this is a long-term +EV play.

-Brian

[Eihli]

I like it. If you're 3bet on the flop you can safely fold the turn if unimproved.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
BB shows J9o. MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is exactly why I like it. at 2/4 they're going to bet into you with NOTHING. against normal human beings, this isn't a good move. but against people who often won't have ANYTHING, it's good.

[chesspain]

I agree with JR. On this seemingly drawless board (other than for a KQ/QT gutshot, which would be foolish for BB to bet), BB almost always has an ace to bet into six other players. Raising here won't do anything to get him to fold out an ace on a later street unless he's uber weak-tight, and your position relative to his position makes it unlikely, if not impossible, that you'll even get the chance to try to raise him out of the hand.

Since you have MP/good kicker, with two backdoor draws, and only one overcard to beat you in the unlikely event that you are currently ahead, I think that calling is way better than raising or folding.

[Navers]

this is really debatable, there are definitely great points on both sides for calling or raising. How often would you expect a Party 2/4 player to fold an ace though?

[Marcotte]

In my mind you have two objectives with this raise.

1. Narrow the field in the hopes your hand is good.
2. Represent strength so you can win the hand with a bet on the turn or river if #1 is successful.

95% of the time, the BB is not going to fold to one raise on the flop, but if he is weak-tight he may fold a weak ace on the turn or river faced by continued aggression by the Hero.

I think it's close either way (raising/folding), but I'm not sure if calling is better than raising. If one or two others call the flop, are you going to call a bet on the turn when the King hits?

[BottlesOf]

YES!

One of my favorites (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&amp;Entry=13358&amp;F_Board=smallholdem &amp;Thread=540586&amp;partnumber=1&amp;postmarker=)

[ddubois]

I looked in SSHE for an example of raising middle pair, because I thought I had seen something like this, and there is one on page 148. But it's completely different - in the book's example in the book you are check-raising the pre-flop raiser who was in late position and would likely auto-bet his overcards.

This is much more tenious. BB is going to have an ace very often. Let's be generous and assume he does not have the ace 1/7th of the time, and that you are raising the best hand and cleaning up Kx callers. 1/7th isn't good enough, because you are 1) exposing yourself to a flop 3-bet, 2) betting his hand for him on the turn, and/or 3) exposing yourself to a turn check-raise.

I vote no on the raise here, until Ed tells me why I'm wrong. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

PS: BB is folding an ace here 0.1% of the time. I wish people would stop mentioning the possibiltiy.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]

95% of the time, the BB is not going to fold to one raise on the flop, but if he is weak-tight he may fold a weak ace on the turn or river faced by continued aggression by the Hero.


[/ QUOTE ]

Since BB will always act directly before Hero, he will never have to call a raise unless he checks, Hero bets, and then Hero is raised--and if that happens how good is Hero going to feel about his hand unimproved?

[MarkD]

How often would you expect a Party 2/4 player to fold an ace though?

Pretty much never. This is the main reason I think raising is wrong.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
this is exactly why I like it. at 2/4 they're going to bet into you with NOTHING. against normal human beings, this isn't a good move. but against people who often won't have ANYTHING, it's good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why though? What does the raise actually do?

You don't want to fold out a worse jack since they aren't getting correct odds to draw to a 3 outer. You won't fold an ace at all so when you are behind you cost yourself extra money (making your draw more expensive).

The only good thing that the raise accomplishes from my perspective is create incorrect odds for the guy with bottom pair when you are ahead. Anyone with a worse jack or a king is already getting incorrect odds.

I think there needs to be a very large overlay of unlikely occurences to make this raise correct.

[MarkD]

No, you can't. You will be getting the correct odds to continue with your draw. (I didn't do the math but it is really close.)

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
How often would you expect a Party 2/4 player to fold an ace though?

Pretty much never. This is the main reason I think raising is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a fundamental problem that goes far beyond this hand. You may be correct, but how do you *know* this? We see endless ridiculous examples of what some of our opponents will call with. That doesn't mean they don't also make good folds, should-be-obvious folds, and even terrible folds.

Folding A2 for two bets on this flop is in the should-be-obvious category. Why do you assume that no one would ever do such a thing?

[alekhine8]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding A2 for two bets on this flop is in the should-be-obvious category. Why do you assume that no one would ever do such a thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding A2 pre-flop is in the 'should-be-obvious' category for most winning players too. Thankfully, that doesn't stop the Party 2/4 fish from playing it and calling two bets on the flop with top pair, no kicker.

[sublime]

Folding A2 for two bets on this flop is in the should-be-obvious category. Why do you assume that no one would ever do such a thing?

I would /images/graemlins/grin.gif

This play doesnt have to work very often for it to be correct. Somebody folding the best hand is a major victory for hero.

[MarkD]

Just an educated experienced guess I suppose. The way I see it is if someone is going to play A2 before the flop they aren't going to fold it for 2 bets when they flop an ace.

And you know what I've been thinking lately? People that are calling down with an A2 on this type of flop probably aren't playing as poorly as we think they might be. This is the type of thing Clark has been commenting on lately (that our opponents don't play as poorly post flop as we think they do). (Now, having said that I would fold the A2 there everytime I'm just making a general statement).

Someone may fold it. In fact I'm sure some people would fold there, but it doesn't happen enough IMO.

[sthief09]

what about 2 broadway cards for a gut shot? the chance that someone has that, plus the chances that someone has a 6 don't make it worth raising? (I'm asking, not implying) I'm mainly thinking of a gut shot now. KQ has 7 outs against you, QT has 4, QTs has ~6 (backdoor Q high straight), KT has 7, KTs has ~8.5 but might incorrectly fold to a raise, etc. I think a 6 is pretty unlikely, so I admit bottom pair isn't much of a concern.

this leads to a bigger question. how likely does it have to be for an opponent to have a certain hand for you to raise to give that hand incorrect odds? say Hero has JJ on this board. Do you advocate calling here, since there's not much you want to knock out?

[MarkD]

You aren't playing A2 and you aren't the typical party player.

Yes, this doesn't have to fold the best hand very often but it has to be more than 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000. I think the frequency that a typical party player who calls with A2 pre-flop folds it on the flop for a raise is somewhere in this range.

[sublime]

You aren't playing A2 and you aren't the typical party player

What if I held A2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, is that a bad limp? No

and would this be a bad fold? No (well in theory it is, but in real life action its hard to argue with it)

Not every player on party sucks and occasionly you are in a hand with a person capable of making a fold like this.

I do agree with you however, it probably doesnt happen often.

[chesspain]

Why are we talking about someone coldcalling w/A2? This is only relevant if the BB doesn't have an ace. If the BB was betting with Ax, which is probably the highest probability hand he has in this situation, then he's not folding it when it comes back to him for one more. And regardless of whether he checkcalls down or bets and calls a raise on a later street, you will have no chance to raise him out of this hand unless someone raises you, at which point you likely are toast.

[sthief09]

there's got to be a fair amount of weak-tight players. hell, there was a time in the past that I played 2/4 or 3/6 and would've made that laydown. I remember one time I folded a straight on the river because I thought someone had a higher one.

the problem is that you can't expect more than 2 or 3 players out of 100 to do that. so if you've got 5 random opponents, who, if they have an ace, have a 2.5% chance of folding that ace. I won't/probably can't do the math, but I'm assuming that it won't make much of a difference as far as the play's expectation goes.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
what about 2 broadway cards for a gut shot? the chance that someone has that, plus the chances that someone has a 6 don't make it worth raising? (I'm asking, not implying) I'm mainly thinking of a gut shot now. KQ has 7 outs against you, QT has 4, QTs has ~6 (backdoor Q high straight), KT has 7, KTs has ~8.5 but might incorrectly fold to a raise, etc. I think a 6 is pretty unlikely, so I admit bottom pair isn't much of a concern.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, all of this is a concern, and if I thought it was probable that I had the best hand (ie. top pair) I would advocate raising here because the pot size is very borderline for some of these weak draws. But, there is a very real chance that we don't have the hand. I think because the pot is so borderline and there is a chance we are behind that calling is preferable here. By calling we are getting the maximum value the times we are behind and costing ourselves very little when we are behind. I think this is a great tradeoff. If the pot size was much larger I would be in the raise camp.

[ QUOTE ]
this leads to a bigger question. how likely does it have to be for an opponent to have a certain hand for you to raise to give that hand incorrect odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very interesting but much tougher to answer. I don’t know the answer but it would be interesting to investigate. Right now I want to go play a few hands before bed though. J

[ QUOTE ]
say Hero has JJ on this board. Do you advocate calling here, since there's not much you want to knock out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, I probably would.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't want to fold out a worse jack since they aren't getting correct odds to draw to a 3 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not that it matters to the big picture, but this is not true. The final pot size was 15 SB and likely would have been larger had I not raised. Plus a worse jack actually has 4.5 outs on the turn, not 3, because a six kills my kicker edge.

[ QUOTE ]
You won't fold an ace at all so when you are behind you cost yourself extra money (making your draw more expensive).

[/ QUOTE ]
This brings up a concept that I don't recall ever seeing. Raising in front of an ace that won't fold may not cost me anything. It will often happen that my choices are raise-and-be-called or call-and-be-raised. There are a lot of people who will pop this flop with an ace that will not make it three bets. This reduces the -EV contributed by raising when I'm behind. If this is the way it is, it is strongly in my interest to raise myself to maximize the number of folds I get. I don't want the button trapping people that I could have gotten out.

sthief already mentioned the Broadway gutshot issue. This is critical because these common hands are also overcards.

[MarkD]

I agree with all of your points, but the players that will make this fold are not your "typical" player imo. The typical party player will make this fold less often than your average player will.

Yes, someone will fold this at some point but it won't be often. It won't be 1 in 10. It won't be 1 in 20. It might be 1 in 50. I think it's more like 1 in 100 though.

[MarkD]

Yes. This is certainly more important and more likely.

[sublime]

Just getting around to this part. I like the flop raise, and it seems to be that most think BB will have an ace here more often than not (hard to argue with that) Given that fact, did checking the turn thru cross your mind? Looking at this hand more, I think that would be the better play here.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
Not that it matters to the big picture, but this is not true. The final pot size was 15 SB and likely would have been larger had I not raised. Plus a worse jack actually has 4.5 outs on the turn, not 3, because a six kills my kicker edge.


[/ QUOTE ]

It is true. On the flop a 3 outer is not getting correct odds to call. You can't look at the final pot size because he would then have to call on the turn as well and thus would be getting lower effective odds.

I'm not sure where you got the 4.5 number from (I assume Ed's book which I do not have) but yes, IF he has a worse jack with a kicker between J-6 then he has 3 outs to a win and 3 more outs to a tie (oh... this is where you get the number from, never mind.)

[ QUOTE ]
This brings up a concept that I don't recall ever seeing. Raising in front of an ace that won't fold may not cost me anything. It will often happen that my choices are raise-and-be-called or call-and-be-raised. There are a lot of people who will pop this flop with an ace that will not make it three bets. This reduces the -EV contributed by raising when I'm behind. If this is the way it is, it is strongly in my interest to raise myself to maximize the number of folds I get. I don't want the button trapping people that I could have gotten out.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very interesting.

[ QUOTE ]
sthief already mentioned the Broadway gutshot issue. This is critical because these common hands are also overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I stated in a prior post I think this is less critical because of the pot size and the chance that you are behind right now.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem is that you can't expect more than 2 or 3 players out of 100 to do that. so if you've got 5 random opponents, who, if they have an ace, have a 2.5% chance of folding that ace. I won't/probably can't do the math, but I'm assuming that it won't make much of a difference as far as the play's expectation goes.

[/ QUOTE ]
It makes a huge difference. Sample math with some rough numbers:

A 1% chance of saving this 15 SB final pot is worth 0.15 SB.

Assume my raise gets three callers and 20% of the time my 7-out weak made hand manages to somehow stand-up, draw-out, or bluff its way to victory.

EV of raise viewed as value bet: 20% * 3 SB - 80% * 1 SB = -0.20 SB.

Roughly comparable. Relatively tiny increases in winning chances are all that are needed to make the raise +EV.

[Trix]

When someone bets out here it´s usually an Ace, two-pair or a set. Raising here will just make drawing more expensive in the long run imo and most likely wont fold out better hands behind you, except maybe KJ.

I´m with JR on this one. You ended up getting 4.5:1 to see the turn this way against a hand that most likely beats you and with less players to pay off should you improve.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
did checking the turn thru cross your mind?

[/ QUOTE ]
I need a showdown. If he has some ace or other moderate made hand it is unlikely to matter which way I play it. Cases where it does matter:

1. I make my gutshot or two pair. I usually lose a bet because even if I check the turn he probably won't bet the river with a four-straight on board. Even pairing the jack may scare him.

2. This tight player bet the flop with A2, KJ, or QJ to "find out where he stands" and folds now that I've told him. He is only getting 6.5-1 on his 5-outer or 3-outer. Ridiculous, you say? Seems like it happened every day when I was a regular in the micro forum. This only has to work once a month to make the whole thing worthwhile.

3. He has a big hand and he checkraises me. This only loses one bet because now I can fold the river when I don't improve. Also I have outs that reduce the EV of the loss.

4. He calls but bets the river for no obvious reason after I miss. This would hurt but I don't expect it to happen very often.

Edit: For those who read the nonsense about him having a gutshot, all I can say is it is past my bedtime. Obviously the king hit the turn. I've fixed the post if you are just reading it.

[sublime]

I need a showdown. If he has some ace or other moderate made hand it is unlikely to matter which way I play it. Cases where it does matter:

Good points /images/graemlins/laugh.gif